Jose Martinez — OGILVIE

Jose Martinez P Tampa Tarpons

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 204 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.18

K%21.7%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	9	1	25	96	28	4	3	11%	2.8	19.8%	5.2%	14.6%	4.7%	1.80	4.68	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	9	1	25	96	28	4	3	11%	2.8	19.8%	5.2%	14.6%	4.7%	1.80	4.68	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	9	1	25	96	28	4	3	11%	2.8	29.2%	4.2%	25.0%	3.1%	1.80	2.90	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	14	4	41	163	45	9	4	29%	3.0	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.6%	3.48	4.37	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	14	4	41	163	45	9	4	29%	3.0	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.6%	3.48	4.37	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	14	4	41	163	45	9	4	29%	3.0	27.6%	5.5%	22.1%	2.5%	3.48	2.83	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	13	1	20	79	23	4	2	8%	1.5	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	1.7%	3.20	3.17	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	13	1	20	79	23	4	2	8%	1.5	19.8%	6.3%	13.5%	1.7%	3.20	3.17	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	13	1	20	79	23	4	2	8%	1.5	29.1%	5.1%	24.1%	2.5%	3.20	2.69	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	31	0	52	230	63	23	6	0%	1.7	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.74	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	31	0	52	230	63	23	6	0%	1.7	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.4%	4.64	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	NYY	31	0	52	230	63	23	6	0%	1.7	27.4%	10.0%	17.4%	2.6%	4.64	3.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	51	0	54	228	52	16	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	2.9%	4.10	4.04	+0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	53	0	56	236	56	16	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	6.7%	16.8%	2.9%	4.01	3.93	+0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	57	242	58	16	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.6%	17.4%	2.9%	3.93	3.86	+0.5
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	58	245	60	16	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	6.6%	17.9%	2.9%	3.87	3.82	+0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	55	0	58	245	60	16	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	6.5%	18.1%	2.9%	3.82	3.79	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	54	0	57	241	59	16	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	6.6%	18.0%	2.9%	3.83	3.83	+0.5
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	25	0	26	110	25	8	3	0%	1.0	22.8%	6.9%	15.9%	3.1%	4.21	4.15	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	39	0	41	173	41	12	5	0%	1.1	23.5%	6.7%	16.8%	3.1%	4.12	4.04	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	45	0	47	198	48	13	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	6.6%	17.4%	3.1%	4.04	3.97	+0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	49	0	51	215	53	14	7	0%	1.0	24.4%	6.6%	17.9%	3.0%	3.98	3.93	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	53	224	55	15	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	6.5%	18.1%	3.0%	3.93	3.90	+0.5
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	53	224	55	15	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	6.6%	18.0%	3.1%	3.94	3.94	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		259	0	272	1148	277	76	35	0%	1.0	24.2%	6.6%	17.5%	3.1%	4.01	3.59	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	56	26	0%	1.1	24.2%	6.6%	17.5%	3.1%	4.01	3.59	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		67	6	138	568	112	48	20	9%	2.1	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.4%	3.58	4.41	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	9	200	821	162	70	28	9%	2.1	19.7%	8.5%	11.2%	3.4%	3.58	4.41	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Martinez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.18	21.7%	7.1%	3.0%	—	3.94	23.5%	16.7%	167	-0.24	—	—	—
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	91
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	90
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	89
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	88
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	87
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	86
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	86
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	86
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	543	86
Sam Delaplane R 2017 · 3.18 FIP	22	SU	3.18	24.6%	7.7%	2.1%	.342	2.86	32.7%	23.4%	128	-0.32	2.57	194	85
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	85
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	84
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	84
Joe Shaw R 2015 · 3.29 FIP	21	SU	3.29	20.6%	4.5%	2.5%	.306	4.38	15.3%	6.7%	300	+1.09	3.29	371	84
Teofilo Mendez R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	21	SU	4.43	23.8%	7.9%	4.3%	.275	4.78	19.0%	10.4%	105	+0.35	3.10	167	84
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	84
Tyler Stevens R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	20.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.293	3.96	23.1%	14.8%	127	-0.33	3.94	190	84
Blake Battenfield R 2017 · 3.35 FIP	22	SU	3.35	19.4%	6.2%	2.0%	.363	4.66	15.7%	8.7%	252	+1.31	3.35	389	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	51	23.9%	6.7%	1.12	3.94
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Giovanny Gallegos ('24)	1.5	52	29.4%	6.6%	1.19	3.46
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79