Coleman Picard

P Columbia Fireflies

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	ROKKC	2	0	3	3.00	2.77	38.5%	23.1%	—	K 38.5% · BB 23.1% · FIP 2.78
2024	22	ROKKC	3	0	5	3.86	3.53	52.6%	15.8%	—	K 52.6% · BB 15.8% · FIP 3.54
2026	24	MIX4 levels	22	8	67	2.97	3.55	22.0%	7.1%	—	K 15.2% · BB 7.7% · FIP 5.30
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	29	0	30	4.67	4.67	18.4%	8.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBKC	25	0	26	4.61	4.59	19.5%	8.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBKC	35	0	37	4.60	4.60	19.8%	8.2%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBrad Deppermann (age 25) · Shohei Tomioka (age 25) · Jeff Niemann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%18.4%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP30

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	2	0	3	13	5	3	0	0%	1.5	38.5%	23.1%	15.4%	0.0%	3.00	2.78	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	2	0	3	13	5	3	0	0%	1.5	38.5%	23.1%	15.4%	0.0%	3.00	2.77	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	0	5	19	10	3	1	0%	1.6	52.6%	15.8%	36.8%	5.3%	3.86	3.54	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	3	0	5	19	10	3	1	0%	1.6	52.6%	15.8%	36.8%	5.3%	3.86	3.54	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	3	0	5	19	10	3	1	0%	1.6	52.6%	15.8%	36.8%	5.3%	3.86	3.53	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	8	67	268	59	19	7	36%	3.0	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	4.6%	2.97	5.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	22	8	67	268	59	19	7	36%	3.0	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	4.6%	2.97	5.30	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	22	8	67	268	59	19	7	36%	3.0	22.0%	7.1%	14.9%	2.6%	2.97	3.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	29	0	30	127	23	10	4	0%	1.0	18.4%	8.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.67	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	57	0	60	253	49	20	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.59	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	56	0	59	250	49	21	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.60	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	25	0	26	110	21	9	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.59	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	35	0	37	156	31	13	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	265	52	22	8	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.22	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	70	26	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.2%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		27	8	74	300	56	27	13	30%	2.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	4.4%	3.03	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	22	200	807	150	72	36	30%	2.8	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	4.4%	3.03	5.08	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Coleman Picard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	18.4%	8.0%	3.2%	—	4.59	19.6%	11.4%	119	-0.08	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	89
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	85
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	84
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	83
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	83
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	80
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	80
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	80
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	79
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	79
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	79
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	78
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	78
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	77
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	77
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	77
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	50	19.4%	8.1%	1.22	4.62
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*