Jaylen Paden — OGILVIE

Jaylen Paden P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 24 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%23.2%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	4	0	6	29	6	2	0	0%	1.5	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	0.0%	3.00	2.23	—
2025	23	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	4	0	6	29	6	2	0	0%	1.5	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	0.0%	3.00	2.23	—
2025	23	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	4	0	6	29	6	2	0	0%	1.5	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	0.0%	3.00	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	14	0	19	83	24	11	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	15.6%	5.8%	3.1%	2.79	4.99	—
YTD	24	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	14	0	19	83	24	11	2	0%	1.4	21.4%	15.6%	5.8%	3.1%	2.79	4.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	ATL	14	0	19	83	24	11	2	0%	1.4	28.9%	13.3%	15.7%	2.4%	2.79	3.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ATL	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.39	+0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	ATL	9	0	9	38	9	4	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.39	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	4	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.01	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	94	23	0%	1.1	23.6%	10.0%	13.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		18	0	25	112	24	15	3	0%	1.4	21.2%	13.4%	7.8%	2.3%	2.84	4.28	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	0	200	884	188	118	21	0%	1.4	21.2%	13.4%	7.8%	2.3%	2.84	4.28	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaylen Paden (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	23.2%	10.7%	3.0%	—	4.39	23.6%	13.6%	20	-0.13	—	—	—
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	92
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	87
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	86
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	86
Chris Jefferson R 2022 · 3.53 FIP	25	SU	3.53	22.4%	10.2%	1.9%	.330	4.99	16.5%	3.9%	101	+1.46	3.53	140	86
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	85
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	85
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	84
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	84
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	84
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	84
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	84
Jackson McClelland R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	23.2%	11.6%	2.7%	.253	5.41	17.0%	2.6%	83	+1.30	3.02	174	83
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	83
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	83