Jacob Humphrey — OGILVIE

Jacob HumphreyCF Spokane Indians

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION347 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .222

PA10

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP330

ISO132

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE44

scouting grade only

SPEED72

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	30	7	2	0	0	8	8	0	2	1	233	395	300	695	67	318	21	21	325	106	+0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	33	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	212	316	273	589	61	273	28	13	246	53	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	33	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	212	316	273	589	61	318	28	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	30	7	2	0	0	8	8	0	2	1	233	395	300	695	67	318	21	21	325	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	34	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	206	316	265	580	59	273	28	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	34	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	206	316	265	580	59	273	28	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	COL	—	347	316	84	13	2	6	17	84	9	32	4	266	322	377	698	111	341	24	5	303	91	-4	+5	+0	+1	+8	1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	COL	—	266	232	72	12	2	8	22	45	7	26	4	310	387	483	870	172	352	17	8	380	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	COL	—	81	73	24	4	0	0	6	17	2	6	0	329	395	384	779	55	429	21	7	357	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	COL	0%	10	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	222	300	222	522		313	20	10	302	91	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	COL	—	357	325	86	13	2	6	18	86	9	33	4	265	321	372	693	108	339	24	5	303	91	-4	+5	+0	+1	+8	1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	30%	314	287	71	12	2	7	19	75	5	12	2	247	305	376	682	129	310	24	6	306	93	-3	+2	+0	+1	+7	0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	44%	373	341	85	15	2	9	23	88	6	13	2	249	308	384	692	135	309	24	6	309	95	-2	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	51%	409	374	93	16	2	10	26	96	6	14	2	249	308	382	690	134	308	23	6	310	96	-2	+2	+0	+1	+9	1.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	52%	420	383	95	17	2	10	28	99	6	14	2	248	309	381	691	133	307	24	7	310	96	-2	+2	+0	+1	+9	1.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	53%	424	387	96	17	2	10	28	101	6	13	2	248	309	380	689	132	307	24	7	309	95	-2	+2	-1	+2	+9	1.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	53%	418	381	93	16	2	10	28	100	6	13	2	244	306	375	681	131	306	24	7	307	94	-3	+2	-1	+1	+9	0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	52%	413	376	92	16	2	10	28	100	6	12	2	245	307	378	685	133	305	24	7	305	92	-4	+2	-2	+1	+9	0.6
2034	31	MLB MLE	COL	52%	400	364	88	15	2	9	27	98	6	11	2	242	305	368	673	126	302	24	7	300	89	-5	+1	-3	+1	+9	0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	30%	95	88	23	4	1	2	6	23	1	4	1	261	316	398	714	136	327	24	6	312	93	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	44%	165	152	39	7	1	4	10	39	2	6	1	257	311	395	706	138	325	24	6	316	95	-1	+1	+0	+1	+4	0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	51%	208	190	50	9	1	6	13	49	3	7	1	263	320	416	736	153	325	24	6	317	96	-1	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	52%	220	200	53	10	1	6	15	52	3	7	1	265	326	415	741	150	324	24	7	318	96	-1	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	53%	226	206	54	10	1	6	15	54	3	7	1	262	321	408	729	146	323	24	7	316	95	-1	+1	-0	+1	+5	0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	53%	220	200	52	9	1	6	15	53	3	7	1	260	321	405	726	145	322	24	7	314	94	-2	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	52%	215	195	51	9	1	6	15	52	3	6	1	262	324	410	734	149	321	24	7	311	92	-2	+1	-1	+1	+5	0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	COL	52%	207	188	48	9	1	5	14	51	3	6	1	255	317	394	711	138	319	25	7	307	89	-3	+1	-1	+1	+4	0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1556	1419	370	67	8	41	103	373	21	50	8	261	320	406	726	145	325	24	7	314	93	-11	+7	-4	+6	+34	3.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	154	28	3	17	43	156	9	21	3	260	320	403	723	143	324	24	7	314	93	-5	+3	-2	+2	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3220	2935	722	126	16	75	213	770	47	105	17	246	307	376	684	130	307	24	7	306	93	-23	+14	-7	+11	+69	6.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	145	25	3	15	43	155	9	21	3	245	305	373	679	128	306	24	7	306	93	-5	+3	-1	+2	+14	1.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Danny Santanalast yr '21 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,834 PA	2.8	1,834	47	74	256	296	415	-6	-6	3.6	3.6
/162	664	17	27	-2.3	-2.2	1.3	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.3	1,557	37	50	248	306	381	-9	+0	2.9	2.8
/162	664	16	21	-4.0	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jacob Humphrey (OGILVIE)	23	46→51	40→45	67→72	44	246/303/368	122	313	3	7	24%	6%	91	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	45→44	47→55	58→50	45	221/289/359	138	303	14	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	211/273/334	123	271	14	11	27%	7%	72	-0.7	224/287/394	170	271	21	14	25%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Adalberto Santos 2012 · A	24	51→54	43→45	59→55	48	246/306/367	121	297	8	21	20%	7%	91	+0.6	255/316/349	94	318	6	20	20%	7%	90	+0.6	259/323/341	82	327	5	21	21%	8%	88	+0.2
●Matt McLain 2023 · AA	23	40→50	49→55	59→55	47	205/293/360	155	287	16	24	33%	10%	86	+0.3	245/323/418	173	327	19	21	29%	9%	109	+2.0	229/312/387	159	297	19	21	28%	9%	96	+0.9
✕Peter Bourjos 2010 · AA	23	51→55	42→50	62→60	43	245/288/362	117	303	7	28	22%	5%	82	-0.0	246/294/386	140	303	12	24	22%	5%	91	+0.6	249/309/385	136	316	11	18	24%	6%	95	+0.5
✕Caleb Durbin 2023 · A	23	46→52	41→45	56→60	50	221/295/323	102	249	8	21	15%	7%	78	-0.3	243/317/357	114	265	9	31	12%	7%	93	+0.8	243/323/371	128	260	12	25	12%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2023 · AA	22	46→55	49→55	58→55	37	233/270/393	160	293	16	19	27%	4%	84	+0.1	242/279/395	153	304	16	23	25%	4%	88	+0.4	253/291/409	156	303	17	19	22%	4%	93	+0.8
●Maikel Garcia 2022 · A	22	50→58	39→50	58→60	50	236/300/327	91	298	5	22	21%	8%	79	-0.2	247/302/345	98	313	7	27	22%	7%	84	+0.1	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Anthony Norman 2009 · A	24	47→42	47→50	62→55	52	231/311/376	145	274	13	24	21%	9%	95	+1.0	216/290/343	127	276	11	14	24%	8%	80	-0.2	206/275/315	109	281	7	9	27%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Dru Baker 2023 · A	23	50→58	44→40	57→60	44	237/301/356	119	332	11	24	30%	8%	86	+0.3	241/295/331	90	341	8	32	30%	6%	78	-0.3	239/292/313	74	340	6	36	30%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Alex Castellanos 2009 · A	22	43→51	46→55	58→50	35	215/264/350	135	301	13	18	32%	4%	72	-0.7	217/269/350	133	312	11	15	33%	4%	74	-0.6	233/294/405	172	309	17	15	29%	6%	94	+0.7
●Fernando Perez 2006 · A	23	51→61	39→45	60	48	244/296/340	96	295	6	27	19%	7%	80	-0.2	258/323/356	98	357	6	26	27%	8%	94	+0.9	265/333/364	99	379	6	30	29%	9%	95	+0.9
✕Ryan Cordell 2015 · A	23	52→43	48→50	56→50	44	256/307/406	151	318	15	16	24%	6%	100	+1.3	226/272/373	147	290	16	14	27%	5%	80	-0.2	215/261/363	148	274	17	14	28%	5%	71	-0.6
✕Mario Lisson 2007 · A	23	45→49	44→50	55	47	219/296/340	121	292	11	22	27%	8%	82	-0.0	215/266/325	110	280	11	19	26%	5%	66	-1.1	230/303/360	129	300	15	8	27%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Sean Godfrey 2015 · A	23	51→47	41→45	57→55	38	245/279/351	106	314	7	17	24%	3%	76	-0.4	227/255/323	96	293	7	13	24%	3%	61	-1.5	223/246/313	91	283	7	13	24%	2%	51	-1.0
✕John Shelby 2009 · A	23	48→52	48→55	56→55	38	239/271/394	155	299	14	18	25%	4%	84	+0.1	219/259/357	138	278	13	18	25%	5%	71	-0.8	208/249/345	137	262	13	17	25%	5%	62	-1.1
✕Corey Toups 2016 · A	23	49→50	41→45	56→50	46	235/295/344	109	306	7	17	25%	7%	81	-0.1	216/276/329	113	308	9	16	31%	6%	71	-0.8	204/268/315	111	299	9	16	33%	6%	62	-1.0
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	221/288/339	118	278	11	16	24%	6%	78	-0.3	214/270/297	83	283	6	12	25%	6%	61	-1.5	205/257/264	59	274	3	10	25%	6%	46	-0.7
✕Wenceel Pérez 2023 · AA	23	47→48	47→55	57→55	46	233/287/377	144	284	12	16	22%	7%	86	+0.3	233/295/372	139	286	13	17	22%	8%	88	+0.4	232/298/376	144	282	14	17	22%	8%	88	+0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2023 · AA	21	46→54	43→50	61→55	45	223/282/346	122	298	9	28	27%	7%	77	-0.3	240/293/371	131	287	13	16	20%	7%	87	+0.4	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Jared Oliva 2019 · A	23	46→48	42→45	56→65	42	222/289/334	112	305	9	24	29%	7%	78	-0.3	221/279/318	97	306	7	25	28%	6%	70	-0.9	223/290/349	126	282	12	55	24%	7%	77	-0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps