Jacob Humphrey

CF Spokane Indians

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2095ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ACOL	39	.233/.395/.300	0	2	52	—	.212/.316/.273
2026	23	AA/A+COL	347	.315/.389/.459	8	32	102	—	.282/.339/.407
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBCOL	1	.239/.294/.368	0	0	76	-0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBCOL	72	.241/.297/.374	2	2	78	0.0
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBCOL	127	.241/.299/.377	3	4	79	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%83

Z-Con%73

wRC+72

wOBA70

K%70

Speed52

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCorey Toups (age 24) · Kristopher Negrón (age 24) · Lane Adams (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.239 / .294 / .368

PA1

HR0

K%26

BB%6

BABIP305

ISO116

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED67

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	30	7	2	0	0	8	8	0	2	1	233	395	300	695	67	318	21	21	325	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Hartford Yard Goats	—	81	73	24	4	0	0	6	17	2	6	0	329	395	384	779	55	429	21	7	357	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Spokane Indians	—	266	232	72	12	2	8	22	45	7	26	4	310	387	483	870	172	352	17	8	380	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	33	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	212	316	273	589	61	276	28	13	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	—	81	75	24	4	0	0	4	21	2	6	0	320	370	373	744	53	440	26	5	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	—	266	240	65	10	2	7	14	61	7	26	4	271	330	417	746	146	317	23	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	33	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	212	316	273	589	61	318	28	13	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	30	7	2	0	0	8	8	0	2	1	233	395	300	695	67	318	21	21	325	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	347	315	89	14	2	7	18	81	9	32	4	283	339	406	746	124	357	23	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	347	305	96	16	2	8	28	62	9	32	4	315	389	459	848	144	370	18	8	374	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	34	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	206	316	265	580	59	276	28	13	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	347	317	89	14	2	7	18	81	9	32	4	281	339	404	743	123	346	23	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	—	39	34	7	2	0	0	5	11	0	2	1	206	316	265	580	59	276	28	13	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	347	317	89	14	2	7	18	81	9	32	4	281	339	404	743	123	346	23	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	0%	380	349	80	15	2	7	22	97	6	11	2	228	283	342	626	115	291	26	6	281	76	-11	+1	+0	+1	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	239	294	368	663	129	305	0	0	295	76	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	30%	238	218	50	9	1	5	14	60	4	7	1	229	286	347	633	118	291	25	6	284	78	-6	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	44%	287	264	60	11	1	6	17	72	4	8	2	229	287	350	637	120	291	25	6	286	79	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	49%	310	284	65	12	2	6	19	78	4	9	2	229	288	350	638	121	290	25	6	286	80	-7	+1	+0	+1	+7	0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	52%	320	293	67	12	2	7	20	81	4	8	2	228	288	348	636	120	289	25	6	285	79	-8	+1	-1	+1	+7	0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	51%	316	289	65	12	1	6	20	80	4	8	2	227	286	345	631	118	288	25	6	283	78	-8	+1	-1	+1	+7	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	30%	72	67	17	3	1	2	4	18	1	2	0	241	297	374	670	133	305	25	6	299	78	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	44%	127	116	28	5	1	3	8	32	2	4	1	241	299	377	675	135	305	25	6	301	79	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	49%	152	140	34	6	1	4	9	38	2	4	1	241	299	377	676	136	304	25	6	301	80	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	52%	165	152	37	7	1	4	10	42	2	4	1	240	299	375	673	135	303	25	6	300	79	-4	+0	-0	+1	+4	0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	51%	163	150	35	6	1	4	10	41	2	4	1	238	297	371	668	133	302	25	6	298	78	-4	+0	-1	+1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	679	625	151	27	5	17	41	171	9	18	4	242	298	382	680	141	304	25	6	300	82	-17	+2	-1	+2	+15	0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	145	26	5	16	39	164	9	17	4	242	299	383	682	140	306	25	6	300	82	-16	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	2064	1886	446	80	10	41	125	516	32	80	15	236	295	355	650	118	302	25	6	289	82	-43	+5	-2	+6	+36	0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	140	25	3	13	39	162	10	25	5	236	294	354	647	118	300	25	6	289	82	-17	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Spokane Indians · 266 PAwOBA .372 → .316 (−55)K% 16.9% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.92%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	22.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.52%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	5.33%
HBP% /PA	2.63%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	2.13%
Singles /BIP	26.74%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.021	×0.998	24.79%
Doubles /BIP	6.42%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.021	×0.998	5.43%
Triples /BIP	1.07%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.021	×0.998	0.89%
Home runs /BIP	4.28%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.998	3.54%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.

Result: wOBA .372 → .316; ISO .172 → .143; BABIP .352 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHartford Yard Goats · 81 PAwOBA .348 → .327 (−20)K% 21.0% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.99%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	25.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	5.33%
HBP% /PA	2.47%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	2.16%
Singles /BIP	35.71%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.050	×1.027	37.36%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.860	×1.050	×1.027	6.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.950	×1.050	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .348 → .327; ISO .055 → .049; BABIP .429 → .440. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 39 PAwOBA .318 → .245 (−74)K% 20.5% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷0.951	×1.360	—	—	29.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.51%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	—	12.92%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.73%	÷1.022	×0.920	—	—	20.46%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.055	×0.830	—	—	7.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.910	—	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.870	×0.800	—	—	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .318 → .245; ISO .067 → .054; BABIP .318 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#2Luis Matos'00-'06 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,773 PA	2.7	1,773	30	72	245*	304*	365*	+1	+10	3.2	3.2
/162	664	11	27	+0.3	+3.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#3Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#4Damon Buford'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,072 PA	3.1	2,072	54	56	230*	296*	371*	-1	-2	0.2	0.8
/162	664	17	18	-0.4	-0.5	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Herm Winningham'84-'92 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,069 PA	3.1	2,069	19	105	238*	296*	357*	+1	-3	-0.5	0.2
/162	664	6	34	+0.3	-1.1	-0.2	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.0	680	14	18	229	285	349	-4	+0	-0.1	-0.0
/162	664	14	18	-4.0	+0.0	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Joe Simpson'75-'83 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,531 PA	2.3	1,531	9	45	237*	289*	336*	-9	+2	-2.3	-1.8
/162	664	4	20	-4.0	+1.1	-1.0	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jacob Humphrey (OGILVIE)	24	47	41	67	40	226/281/339	114	291	4	6	25%	6%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Corey Toups 2017 · AA	24	47→50	44→45	56→50	43	228/290/353	125	303	9	17	27%	7%	82	-0.0	210/272/316	106	316	9	15	34%	7%	67	-1.1	193/260/287	93	304	8	16	37%	7%	53	-1.2
✕Kristopher Negrón 2010 · AA	24	47→49	39→45	56→55	44	225/287/316	91	290	6	19	24%	6%	72	-0.7	218/274/322	104	283	9	20	25%	5%	69	-0.9	217/277/337	120	309	13	14	32%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Lane Adams 2014 · AA	24	44→45	43→50	55→60	41	218/269/330	111	290	11	19	28%	6%	68	-1.0	223/277/338	115	292	11	28	26%	6%	74	-0.6	224/277/350	126	304	14	36	30%	6%	73	-0.5
✕Jared Oliva 2020 · AA	24	48→49	41→45	57→65	43	228/291/334	105	307	8	27	27%	6%	78	-0.3	220/273/321	101	306	7	24	29%	5%	68	-1.0	221/286/346	125	277	12	55	24%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Tyler Goeddel 2017 · MLB	24	47→52	43→45	55	45	228/287/344	116	288	10	16	24%	7%	78	-0.3	211/275/304	93	279	7	12	25%	7%	65	-1.2	199/266/279	80	273	4	10	27%	7%	53	-1.1
✕Josh Flores 2010 · AA	24	48→53	40→45	58→55	43	227/277/330	103	292	6	22	24%	6%	71	-0.8	212/273/306	94	295	7	18	29%	7%	64	-1.3	168/240/216	48	247	5	30	32%	9%	29	-0.7
✕Tito Polo 2019 · AA	24	48→54	43→45	58→60	40	233/287/346	113	307	10	29	27%	5%	79	-0.2	223/272/325	102	292	8	20	25%	5%	68	-1.0	220/248/307	87	284	3	25	23%	3%	51	-0.5
✕Travis Witherspoon 2013 · AA	24	45→47	45	56→55	42	223/276/344	120	295	13	24	28%	6%	74	-0.5	204/259/319	115	274	12	22	29%	7%	63	-1.4	185/242/291	106	248	12	24	29%	7%	47	-1.7
✕Justin Dean 2021 · A	24	47	42→45	58→65	44	221/291/328	107	313	8	23	30%	8%	76	-0.4	202/279/300	98	317	8	27	36%	8%	67	-1.1	212/289/296	84	320	7	47	33%	9%	66	-0.8
✕Bubba Thompson 2022 · AA	24	46→56	47→50	57→65	36	228/268/375	146	317	14	21	32%	5%	78	-0.3	244/286/355	111	343	10	42	30%	5%	80	-0.2	240/283/332	92	342	8	52	31%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Tyler Robertson 2024 · A	24	47	43→45	58→55	35	221/280/336	115	336	11	22	36%	5%	74	-0.5	212/270/306	94	320	9	20	34%	6%	63	-1.3	227/279/313	86	329	9	23	32%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Cade Gotta 2017 · AA	25	46→51	42→45	56→55	42	223/266/331	108	280	8	21	23%	5%	67	-1.1	235/287/335	100	298	6	29	22%	7%	76	-0.4	240/299/336	96	305	5	36	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Abiatal Avelino 2019 · AAA	24	52→54	43→45	55	42	253/291/365	112	310	10	19	22%	5%	84	+0.1	242/279/356	114	299	10	18	22%	5%	78	-0.3	231/273/339	108	280	10	18	21%	5%	69	-0.6
✕Ryan Cordell 2016 · AA	24	46→42	48→50	55→50	41	234/280/377	144	297	16	15	27%	5%	84	+0.1	217/263/360	143	281	16	14	28%	5%	74	-0.6	205/250/346	141	263	15	14	28%	5%	63	-0.7
✕Greg Golson 2011 · MLB	25	48→53	41→45	55	38	232/270/336	104	315	8	19	29%	4%	70	-0.9	233/273/344	111	320	9	20	29%	4%	73	-0.6	253/306/339	86	357	4	31	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2011 · AA	24	49→50	41→45	57→60	48	232/300/346	114	286	7	22	21%	7%	84	+0.2	224/276/329	105	285	6	30	23%	6%	70	-0.8	225/286/341	117	286	11	26	24%	7%	77	-0.2
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	44	222/290/341	119	280	12	16	24%	7%	80	-0.2	214/272/298	84	283	6	12	25%	6%	62	-1.4	205/259/264	60	274	3	10	25%	6%	47	-0.7
✕Adam Engel 2018 · MLB	26	39→48	43→50	57→60	40	195/258/316	120	275	10	24	32%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/348	126	302	12	17	29%	5%	76	-0.4	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Shane Sasaki 2024 · A	24	49→56	43→45	58→60	42	234/293/349	116	334	10	25	32%	7%	82	-0.0	215/279/295	80	320	5	28	31%	8%	64	-1.3	203/273/269	66	307	2	34	32%	8%	53	-1.0
✕Daniel Carbonell 2015 · A	24	50→53	45→50	55	42	246/291/375	129	306	13	18	24%	5%	87	+0.4	211/249/304	93	280	8	15	27%	4%	55	-2.0	241/285/371	130	305	13	21	25%	5%	82	-0.0

Jacob Humphrey

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps