Ben Petschke prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Ben Petschke P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 197 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.36

FIP5.36

K%17.8%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	21	0	35	175	23	25	1	0%	1.7	9.7%	16.9%	-7.1%	0.7%	6.62	4.78	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	21	0	35	175	23	25	1	0%	1.7	9.7%	16.9%	-7.1%	0.7%	6.62	4.78	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	21	0	35	175	23	25	1	0%	1.7	13.1%	14.3%	-1.1%	0.6%	6.62	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.8%	14.2%	3.6%	2.9%	5.36	5.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	HOU	31	0	32	136	26	17	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.13	5.04	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	HOU	13	0	14	59	11	7	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.13	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	11	7	2	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.13	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	102	29	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.6%	6.6%	2.9%	5.13	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		21	0	35	175	17	30	1	0%	1.7	9.7%	16.9%	-7.1%	0.7%	6.62	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	0	200	991	96	167	7	0%	1.7	9.7%	16.9%	-7.1%	0.7%	6.62	4.78	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ben Petschke (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.36	17.8%	14.2%	2.9%	—	5.04	19.2%	6.6%	32	-0.32	—	—	—
Julio Mateo R 2002 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	16.0%	12.8%	2.1%	.277	4.23	17.5%	13.8%	232	-0.31	3.42	318	91
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	88
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	88
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	87
Cayne Ueckert R 2019 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	17.5%	14.9%	1.4%	.306	5.92	22.7%	5.0%	78	+1.66	3.95	205	87
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	85
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	85
Lendy Castillo R 2012 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	14.8%	13.6%	2.4%	.361	4.81	13.9%	1.0%	49	-0.07	4.41	116	85
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	85
Morgan McSweeney R 2022 · 5.16 FIP	24	SU	5.16	18.0%	13.9%	3.3%	.278	4.31	16.6%	6.6%	107	-0.85	3.20	213	85
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	84
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	84
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	84
Jesus Colome R 2002 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	16.2%	13.7%	2.9%	.365	4.29	19.4%	9.1%	161	-0.80	3.55	426	84
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	18.6%	13.2%	1.12	5.22
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Purcey ('13)	1.0	41	18.8%	12.8%	0.96	4.98
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68