Lucas Braun

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 25 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #552MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP42ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	24	144	3.26	2.72	27.7%	7.2%	—	K 21.9% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.74
2025	23	MIX2 levels	27	26	150	3.67	3.59	24.3%	6.5%	—	K 19.8% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.57
2026	24	MIX2 levels	27	25	132	4.16	3.87	21.3%	7.1%	—	K 17.9% · BB 6.8% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	25	MLBKC	15	15	90	4.62	4.62	17.8%	6.3%	0.3
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBKC	11	11	68	4.41	4.39	18.7%	6.4%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBKC	16	16	95	4.40	4.41	19.0%	6.6%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff47Control54Command57FB velo43

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 87%

CompsBrian Edgington (age 25) · Grant Rogers (age 23) · Cole De Vries (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%17.8%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4550

CTRL4055

CMD4555

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	6	27	106	32	5	2	100%	4.5	20.7%	3.5%	17.2%	0.0%	2.67	1.79	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	6	27	106	32	5	2	100%	4.5	30.2%	4.7%	25.5%	1.9%	2.67	2.25	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.7%	3.26	3.74	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	21.9%	8.0%	13.9%	2.7%	3.26	3.74	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	144	585	162	42	11	96%	5.7	27.7%	7.2%	20.5%	1.9%	3.26	2.72	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	4.1%	3.67	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	4.1%	3.67	4.57	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	150	597	145	39	19	96%	5.5	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	3.2%	3.67	3.59	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	132	563	120	40	17	93%	4.9	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.16	4.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	132	563	120	40	17	93%	4.9	17.9%	6.8%	11.1%	3.4%	4.16	4.30	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	132	563	120	40	17	93%	4.9	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.0%	4.16	3.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	KC	15	15	90	380	68	24	13	100%	6.0	17.8%	6.3%	11.5%	3.4%	4.62	4.62	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	142	598	112	38	20	100%	5.9	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.3%	4.55	4.53	+0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	144	606	115	40	20	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.54	4.55	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	24	24	144	606	115	41	21	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.8%	12.2%	3.4%	4.58	4.62	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	137	579	109	41	21	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	3.6%	4.67	4.74	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	129	544	101	40	21	100%	6.1	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	3.8%	4.82	4.92	-0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	KC	20	20	120	508	92	39	20	100%	6.0	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	4.0%	5.00	5.12	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	11	11	68	287	54	18	9	100%	6.2	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	3.1%	4.41	4.39	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	95	401	76	26	12	100%	5.9	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	111	469	89	32	15	100%	6.2	19.0%	6.8%	12.2%	3.2%	4.44	4.48	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	114	481	91	34	16	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.0%	11.8%	3.3%	4.52	4.59	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	KC	19	19	112	473	87	35	17	100%	5.9	18.5%	7.3%	11.2%	3.5%	4.66	4.76	-0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	107	452	82	35	17	100%	5.9	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.96	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	101	607	2561	478	179	85	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.56	4.24	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	158	59	28	100%	6.0	18.7%	7.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.56	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		85	81	452	1851	369	131	59	95%	5.3	19.9%	7.1%	12.8%	3.2%	3.62	4.07	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	36	200	818	163	58	26	95%	5.3	19.9%	7.1%	12.8%	3.2%	3.62	4.07	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Lucas Braun (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	17.8%	6.3%	3.4%	—	4.57	18.9%	12.3%	429	-0.05	—	—	—
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	89
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	87
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	85
Chase Anderson R 2014 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	21.6%	7.8%	3.3%	.309	4.03	19.6%	12.6%	446	-0.03	3.30	1,260	84
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	84
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	83
Mason Adams R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SP	3.72	18.2%	5.9%	2.6%	.290	3.83	22.6%	13.3%	78	+0.11	3.67	307	83
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	82
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	82
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	82
Casey Delgado R 2015 · 3.88 FIP	25	SP	3.88	14.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.283	4.08	13.7%	3.9%	259	+0.20	3.88	364	82
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	82
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	82
Jake McCasland R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	25	SP	4.03	15.9%	7.5%	2.4%	.355	4.34	12.8%	3.3%	106	+0.31	3.07	367	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	81
Josh Roeder R 2018 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP	4.74	12.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.276	4.71	15.1%	6.4%	83	-0.03	4.71	175	81
Noah Zavolas R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP	4.86	19.6%	6.8%	4.7%	.288	5.99	16.4%	6.8%	62	+1.13	3.44	315	81
Ty Langenberg R 2024 · 3.49 FIP	22	SP	3.49	19.2%	7.6%	1.9%	.325	4.01	16.7%	6.8%	229	+0.52	3.49	337	81
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	129	18.6%	6.9%	1.37	4.68
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Colby Lewis ('16)	6.1	135	18.4%	7.2%	1.32	4.70
Mike Smithson ('82-'89, 10 WAR*)	6.8	170	17.6%*	6.5%*	1.33*	4.62*
Saul Rogovin ('49-'57, 9 WAR*)	4.4	147	19.0%*	7.1%*	1.25*	4.42*
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Dave Bush ('13)	5.7	143	15.7%	6.0%	1.34	4.73