Matt Gabbert

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	13	4	39	3.43	2.41	29.7%	9.1%	—	K 20.9% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.54
2025	23	MIX3 levels	24	6	66	3.26	2.45	21.4%	1.9%	—	K 15.9% · BB 2.3% · FIP 3.20
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	44	0	46	3.99	3.99	19.5%	4.2%	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBMIN	25	0	26	4.00	3.99	20.3%	4.7%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBMIN	35	0	37	4.04	4.05	20.5%	5.1%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsConnor Schultz (age 25) · Juan Gutierrez (age 24) · Reinier Roibal (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.99

FIP3.99

K%19.5%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%15.3%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	39	165	49	15	2	31%	3.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.2%	1.3%	3.43	3.54	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	39	165	49	15	2	31%	3.0	29.7%	9.1%	20.6%	1.2%	3.43	2.41	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	6	66	257	55	5	4	25%	2.8	15.9%	2.3%	13.5%	2.1%	3.26	3.20	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	6	66	257	55	5	4	25%	2.8	15.9%	2.3%	13.5%	2.1%	3.26	3.20	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	6	66	257	55	5	4	25%	2.8	21.4%	1.9%	19.5%	1.6%	3.26	2.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	44	0	46	194	38	8	6	0%	1.0	19.5%	4.2%	15.3%	3.0%	3.99	3.99	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	57	0	60	252	51	12	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	4.7%	15.6%	3.0%	4.00	3.99	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	56	0	59	248	51	13	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	3.0%	4.04	4.05	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	22	5	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	4.7%	15.6%	3.0%	4.00	3.99	+0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	35	0	37	156	32	8	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	3.0%	4.04	4.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	265	54	13	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	4.9%	15.5%	3.0%	4.02	3.64	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	41	26	0%	1.1	20.4%	4.9%	15.5%	3.0%	4.02	3.64	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		37	10	106	422	75	25	8	27%	2.9	17.8%	6.0%	11.8%	1.8%	3.32	3.33	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	19	200	799	143	48	14	27%	2.9	17.8%	6.0%	11.8%	1.8%	3.32	3.33	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Gabbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.99	19.5%	4.2%	3.0%	—	4.02	20.4%	15.5%	118	+0.03	—	—	—
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	87
Juan Gutierrez R 2007 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	17.2%	4.3%	3.2%	.314	3.83	20.4%	12.6%	128	-0.13	2.67	379	83
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	81
Aaron West R 2015 · 3.06 FIP	25	SU	3.06	16.2%	3.2%	1.7%	.307	2.85	15.2%	11.2%	150	-0.21	2.80	235	80
Miller Hogan R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	25	SW	4.50	20.6%	3.6%	4.9%	.245	6.75	14.0%	2.1%	18	+2.25	3.39	168	77
Jeff Manship R 2010 · 3.60 FIP	25	SU	3.60	16.9%	4.8%	2.4%	.330	5.09	12.6%	5.5%	52	+1.49	2.83	250	77
Casey Cobb R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.8%	6.2%	2.6%	.261	5.59	17.2%	8.3%	118	+2.11	3.48	191	77
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	75
Landon Harper R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	16.7%	4.8%	4.1%	.228	4.38	19.4%	14.1%	108	-0.19	3.68	258	75
Collin Lowe R 2024 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	15.1%	3.9%	1.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	165	75
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	74
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	74
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	73
Kolton Mahoney R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	17.1%	4.4%	2.6%	.312	3.73	16.9%	9.5%	198	+0.11	3.56	302	73
Chris Powell R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	24	SU	3.53	18.8%	3.7%	2.8%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	102	73
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	73
Chad Jenkins R 2013 · 3.77 FIP	25	SW	3.77	11.4%	3.0%	2.3%	.255	3.59	13.0%	6.0%	155	-0.18	3.26	220	73
Lance Carter R 2002 · 3.63 FIP	27	SU	3.63	17.7%	5.1%	2.5%	.220	4.80	11.6%	6.3%	216	+1.17	3.63	248	73
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.39	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.39	3.65	301	72
Walker Powell R 2022 · 2.87 FIP	26	SW	2.87	18.4%	6.1%	1.0%	.251	5.24	17.4%	11.6%	147	+2.37	2.87	242	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	20.1%	4.7%	1.15	4.01
Dale Thayer ('15)	1.3	63	20.4%	6.3%	1.07	3.47
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Edward Mujica ('17)	2.8	69	19.1%	3.9%	1.30	3.92
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*
Bobby Tiefenauer ('52-'68, 0 WAR*)	1.6	63	20.4%*	6.7%*	1.10*	4.53*