Landon Harper
P
Columbus Clingstones
+0.9
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 176 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%13.9%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 5 | 4 | 11 | 52 | 6 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.55 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 31 | 0 | 73 | 297 | 69 | 11 | 6 | 17.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.34 | 3.67 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | 32 | 6 | 78 | 305 | 64 | 13 | 9 | 16.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.43 | 4.58 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | 26 | 14 | 108 | 439 | 105 | 21 | 14 | 19.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 3.59 | 4.39 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 82 | 26 | 14 | 20.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 90 | 28 | 15 | 20.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.42 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 93 | 30 | 15 | 20.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.42 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 447 | 93 | 30 | 15 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.44 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 91 | 30 | 15 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 423 | 87 | 30 | 15 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.54 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 83 | 29 | 15 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 79 | 29 | 14 | 20.1% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.70 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 375 | 74 | 28 | 14 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 69 | 27 | 14 | 19.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 71 | 24 | 13 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 4.79 | 4.76 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 65 | 23 | 13 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 4.85 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | ATL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 22 | 12 | 20.2% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 24 | 269 | 1093 | 193 | 53 | 40 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.31 | 4.22 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 70 | 18 | 200 | 813 | 143 | 39 | 30 | 17.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.31 | 4.22 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Landon Harper (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 20.4% | 6.5% | 3.4% | — | 4.43 | 20.9% | 14.2% | 313 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 90 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 90 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 90 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.65 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | .312 | 3.74 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 198 | +0.09 | 3.57 | 302 | 90 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.73 | 17.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 256 | 87 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 87 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 87 |
| Alex Colomé R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.29 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .309 | 2.86 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.43 | 2.61 | 530 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | .269 | 4.85 | 15.7% | 4.1% | 181 | +0.56 | 3.52 | 395 | 86 |
| Hayden Minton R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 86 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.36 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.9% | .290 | 4.48 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.12 | 3.36 | 197 | 85 |
| John Holobetz R 2024 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.37 | 18.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 125 | 84 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2029 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 83 |
| Victor Alcántara R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.49 | 19.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | .289 | 5.52 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 61 | +2.03 | 3.49 | 464 | 83 |
| Mat Latos R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 83 |
| Mason Adams R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 229 | 83 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.5% | 6.7% | 2.6% | .277 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.3% | 164 | +1.27 | 3.83 | 550 | 83 |
| Rafael Pineda R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.24 | 14.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% | .298 | 5.28 | 6.5% | -3.4% | 20 | +1.04 | 4.24 | 101 | 82 |
| Mitch Myers R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% | .338 | 3.57 | 18.5% | 14.5% | 23 | -0.75 | 3.57 | 362 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $9M | $30M | +$22M | ||