Cruz Noriega — OGILVIE

Cruz Noriega P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.01

K%18.0%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%8.5%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals 1	14	3	32	140	30	6	0	21%	2.3	14.6%	5.4%	9.2%	0.0%	4.18	2.55	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals 1	14	3	32	140	30	6	0	21%	2.3	21.4%	4.3%	17.1%	0.0%	4.18	1.80	—
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Royals	13	5	44	196	37	17	2	38%	3.4	12.8%	10.8%	2.0%	1.4%	5.11	4.17	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Royals	13	5	44	196	37	17	2	38%	3.4	18.9%	8.7%	10.2%	1.0%	5.11	3.17	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	13	73	301	81	14	7	68%	3.9	19.5%	5.3%	14.2%	2.6%	4.05	3.53	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	13	73	301	81	14	7	68%	3.9	26.9%	4.7%	22.3%	2.3%	4.05	2.70	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	20	6	66	273	56	14	5	30%	3.3	15.8%	5.9%	9.9%	2.2%	3.12	3.73	—
2023	25	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	20	6	66	273	56	14	5	30%	3.3	15.8%	5.9%	9.9%	2.2%	3.12	3.73	—
2023	25	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	20	6	66	273	56	14	5	30%	3.3	20.5%	5.1%	15.4%	1.8%	3.12	3.02	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	32	9	76	329	73	21	9	28%	2.4	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.6%	6.01	4.43	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	32	9	76	329	73	21	9	28%	2.4	18.0%	7.0%	11.0%	3.6%	6.01	4.43	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	32	9	76	329	73	21	9	28%	2.4	22.2%	6.4%	15.8%	2.7%	6.01	3.55	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	194	41	25	8	4%	1.4	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	4.6%	9.92	5.73	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	1	39	194	41	25	8	4%	1.4	17.3%	12.5%	4.8%	4.6%	9.92	5.73	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	1	39	194	41	25	8	4%	1.4	21.1%	12.9%	8.2%	4.1%	9.92	5.59	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	KC	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	3.4%	5.01	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	KC	28	0	30	126	23	12	4	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	3.5%	5.02	5.07	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	KC	9	0	9	38	7	4	1	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	3.5%	5.02	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	39	7	4	1	0%	1.0	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	3.5%	5.02	4.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	86	21	0%	1.1	18.3%	9.7%	8.6%	3.5%	5.02	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		125	37	331	1433	240	108	37	30%	2.7	16.8%	7.6%	9.2%	2.6%	5.16	4.06	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	22	200	865	145	65	22	30%	2.7	16.8%	7.6%	9.2%	2.6%	5.16	4.06	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cruz Noriega (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.01	18.0%	9.5%	3.4%	—	5.07	18.3%	8.6%	30	+0.06	—	—	—
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	79
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	79
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	79
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	79
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	79
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	77
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	76
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	76
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	75
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	74
Cody Poteet R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	28	SW	4.79	18.4%	9.6%	3.7%	.244	3.77	20.5%	12.7%	68	-1.02	3.52	619	72
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	72
Lindsey Caughel R 2018 · 5.12 FIP	27	SW	5.12	13.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	187	72
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	72
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	72
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	72
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	18.2%	9.6%	1.32	5.01
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50