Cruz Noriega
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA4.94
FIP4.94
K%20.2%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%9.8%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 140 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 21% | 2.3 | 14.6% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 4.18 | 2.55 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | DSL Royals 1 | 14 | 3 | 32 | 140 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 21% | 2.3 | 21.4% | 4.3% | 17.1% | 0.0% | 4.18 | 1.80 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 13 | 5 | 44 | 196 | 37 | 17 | 2 | 38% | 3.4 | 12.8% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 5.11 | 4.17 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Royals | 13 | 5 | 44 | 196 | 37 | 17 | 2 | 38% | 3.4 | 18.9% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 1.0% | 5.11 | 3.17 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 13 | 73 | 301 | 81 | 14 | 7 | 68% | 3.9 | 19.5% | 5.3% | 14.2% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.30 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 13 | 73 | 301 | 81 | 14 | 7 | 68% | 3.9 | 26.9% | 4.7% | 22.3% | 2.3% | 4.05 | 2.70 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 20 | 6 | 66 | 273 | 56 | 14 | 5 | 30% | 3.3 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.12 | 3.69 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 20 | 6 | 66 | 273 | 56 | 14 | 5 | 30% | 3.3 | 20.5% | 5.1% | 15.4% | 1.8% | 3.12 | 3.02 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 32 | 9 | 76 | 329 | 73 | 21 | 9 | 28% | 2.4 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 6.01 | 4.62 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 32 | 9 | 76 | 329 | 73 | 21 | 9 | 28% | 2.4 | 22.2% | 6.4% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 6.01 | 3.55 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 39 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 8 | 4% | 1.4 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 9.92 | 5.75 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 1 | 39 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 8 | 4% | 1.4 | 21.1% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 9.92 | 5.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | KC | 30 | 0 | 31 | 132 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 28 | 0 | 30 | 126 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | KC | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 4.63 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 86 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 37 | 331 | 1433 | 241 | 111 | 37 | 30% | 2.7 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 5.16 | 4.06 | +5.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 22 | 200 | 865 | 146 | 67 | 22 | 30% | 2.7 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 5.16 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cruz Noriega (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 3.4% | — | 5.01 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 30 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 80 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 80 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 78 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 76 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 76 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 75 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 75 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 75 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 74 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 74 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 73 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 73 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 73 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 73 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 73 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 73 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .329 | 3.99 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 157 | -1.10 | 3.39 | 382 | 72 |
| Cody Poteet R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.80 | 18.4% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .244 | 3.76 | 21.4% | 12.8% | 68 | -1.04 | 3.49 | 619 | 72 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .371 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 37 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 133 | 72 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 30 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 1.33 | 4.95 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |