Jorge Lara

SS ACL D-backs

Age 21 S/R 5'6" / 145 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKDSL Arizona R…	196	.336/.479/.474	1	23	75	—	.202/.330/.270
2026	20	ROKARI	144	.258/.382/.483	6	5	53	—	.159/.264/.294
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBARI	254	.213/.291/.313	3	6	73	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBARI	68	.224/.301/.337	1	2	77	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBARI	152	.227/.304/.346	2	4	80	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

ISO89

Speed75

wRC+70

wOBA57

Z-Con%28

Whiff%27

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDiego Velasquez (age 20) · Nick Morabito (age 21) · Nacho Alvarez Jr. (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .289 / .310

PA120

HR2

K%28

BB%8

ISO100

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	132	39	9	0	3	21	17	6	18	3	295	415	432	847	136	316	11	13	381	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	47	11	1	0	1	8	14	6	4	3	234	410	319	729	85	303	23	13	347	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	152	51	10	4	1	36	20	6	23	3	336	479	474	953	138	376	10	18	426	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	144	120	31	5	2	6	16	39	8	5	3	258	382	483	865	225	333	27	11	385	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	138	25	5	0	1	15	21	6	18	3	181	289	239	528	58	196	13	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	49	7	1	0	0	6	17	6	4	3	143	311	163	475	20	191	27	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	163	33	7	2	0	25	26	6	23	3	202	330	270	600	67	231	13	13	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	144	126	20	3	1	4	10	56	8	5	3	159	264	294	558	135	243	39	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	138	25	5	0	1	15	21	6	18	3	181	289	239	528	58	203	13	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	132	39	9	0	3	21	17	6	18	3	295	415	432	847	136	316	11	13	381	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	49	7	1	0	0	6	17	6	4	3	143	311	163	475	20	212	27	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	47	11	1	0	1	8	14	6	4	3	234	410	319	729	85	303	23	13	347	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	163	33	7	2	0	25	26	6	23	3	202	330	270	600	67	237	13	13	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	152	51	10	4	1	36	20	6	23	3	336	479	474	953	138	376	10	18	426	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	144	126	20	3	1	4	10	56	8	5	3	159	264	294	558	135	242	39	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	144	120	31	5	2	6	16	39	8	5	3	258	382	483	865	225	333	27	11	385	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	161	139	25	5	0	1	15	21	6	18	3	180	289	237	527	58	196	13	9	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	50	7	1	0	0	6	17	6	4	3	140	311	160	471	20	191	27	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	163	33	7	2	0	25	26	6	23	3	202	330	270	600	67	231	13	13	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	144	125	20	3	1	4	10	56	8	5	3	160	264	296	560	136	243	39	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	62	50	7	1	0	0	6	17	6	4	3	140	311	160	471	20	191	27	10	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	196	163	33	7	2	0	25	26	6	23	3	202	330	270	600	67	231	13	13	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	144	125	20	3	1	4	10	56	8	5	3	160	264	296	560	136	243	39	7	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	254	227	48	8	2	3	20	72	5	6	1	213	291	313	604	100	293	28	8	275	73	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	199	177	39	7	2	3	16	55	4	5	1	217	295	324	619	107	294	28	8	281	77	-6	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	313	279	62	11	3	5	26	86	5	7	2	220	298	333	631	113	294	27	8	286	80	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	393	351	78	14	3	7	32	107	7	9	2	222	300	340	640	117	295	27	8	290	82	-8	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	439	393	87	15	3	8	36	118	7	11	2	224	301	345	646	121	295	27	8	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	467	417	94	16	4	9	39	124	8	11	3	225	302	348	650	123	295	27	8	293	85	-8	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	480	429	96	17	4	9	40	128	8	11	3	224	301	345	647	121	294	27	8	292	84	-9	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	483	432	97	17	4	9	40	130	8	11	3	222	300	341	640	118	294	27	8	290	82	-10	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	58%	478	429	94	16	3	9	39	130	7	10	3	220	297	335	632	115	292	27	8	286	80	-11	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	60%	471	423	92	16	3	8	38	130	7	9	3	217	294	328	621	110	291	28	8	282	77	-13	+1	-2	+5	+10	0.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	ARI	62%	459	412	87	15	3	7	37	128	7	7	3	214	289	318	608	105	288	28	8	276	73	-15	+0	-3	+5	+10	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	68	61	14	3	1	1	6	19	1	2	0	224	301	337	638	113	304	28	9	289	77	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	152	136	31	6	2	2	12	42	3	4	1	227	304	346	649	119	305	28	8	293	80	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	207	184	43	8	2	4	17	56	4	5	1	229	306	352	658	123	306	27	8	297	82	-4	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	240	214	48	9	2	4	20	64	4	6	1	231	307	357	664	126	306	27	8	299	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	260	233	53	10	2	5	21	69	4	6	1	232	308	360	668	128	305	27	8	300	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	264	236	54	10	2	5	22	71	4	6	1	231	307	357	664	127	305	27	8	299	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	264	236	54	10	2	5	22	71	4	6	1	229	305	353	658	124	304	27	8	297	82	-6	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	58%	277	248	56	11	2	5	23	76	4	6	1	227	303	347	649	120	303	27	8	293	80	-7	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	60%	283	254	57	11	2	5	23	78	4	5	2	224	299	339	639	115	301	28	8	289	77	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	ARI	62%	283	254	55	10	2	4	23	79	4	4	2	220	295	330	625	110	299	28	8	283	73	-9	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2298	2056	465	88	19	40	189	625	36	50	11	226	302	346	648	120	304	27	8	294	78	-54	+6	-4	+25	+50	2.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	582	131	25	5	11	53	177	10	14	3	225	301	342	643	117	302	27	8	294	78	-15	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4865	4325	934	164	36	81	409	1290	96	144	38	216	298	327	625	111	286	27	8	283	78	-101	+8	-7	+46	+93	4.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	125	22	5	11	55	172	13	19	5	216	299	329	627	112	286	26	8	283	78	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.6	2,419	43	52	221	295	337	+26	+18	4.0	3.7
/162	664	12	14	+7.1	+4.9	1.1	pk7: 3
#5Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jorge Lara (OGILVIE)	21	60	30	60	60	211/289/310	99	293	2	3	28%	8%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Nick Morabito 2024 · A	21	48→58	37→40	55→65	44	217/297/293	76	324	4	18	32%	8%	71	-0.8	250/316/335	85	345	6	36	27%	7%	87	+0.4	255/322/343	88	346	7	42	26%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2024 · A	21	51→54	40	50	50	241/318/332	91	306	7	13	22%	9%	88	+0.4	240/315/330	90	307	8	14	22%	8%	86	+0.3	238/317/323	85	303	7	15	22%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	44→52	40→45	53→50	52	213/295/309	95	271	8	10	23%	10%	74	-0.6	224/297/348	124	275	11	8	21%	9%	84	+0.1	214/321/331	117	302	10	7	29%	13%	87	+0.3
✕Brainer Bonaci 2023 · A	21	45→46	40→45	55→50	53	211/302/310	100	290	7	16	27%	11%	77	-0.3	227/287/348	121	312	12	11	29%	8%	80	-0.2	232/274/365	133	311	17	8	30%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Jose Acosta 2021 · A	21	49	39→45	58→55	47	228/296/323	95	304	5	19	25%	8%	77	-0.3	200/256/315	115	309	11	15	37%	6%	61	-1.5	169/224/283	115	241	12	19	35%	6%	39	-1.1
✕Juan Benjamin 2024 · A	21	49→51	38→40	50→55	47	229/298/310	82	315	5	16	27%	8%	75	-0.5	213/273/292	79	297	5	18	28%	7%	61	-1.5	199/261/276	77	275	5	20	28%	7%	51	-1.3
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	45→47	41→40	56→60	47	216/284/325	109	278	7	20	24%	8%	73	-0.6	213/279/301	88	280	6	26	25%	7%	66	-1.1	202/273/285	83	265	7	32	25%	7%	57	-1.2
✕Cole Miles 2008 · A	21	52	36→30	54→55	48	246/302/312	66	298	4	15	18%	7%	76	-0.4	230/276/288	58	293	3	16	21%	6%	60	-1.6	228/274/280	52	295	2	18	22%	5%	54	-1.6
✕Maick Collado 2024 · A	21	49	37→40	52→45	52	228/302/300	72	288	4	9	21%	9%	74	-0.6	214/281/293	79	263	6	5	20%	8%	65	-1.2	207/272/284	77	249	7	3	19%	7%	59	-0.9
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	45→55	40→45	57→55	45	215/282/314	100	299	6	21	29%	8%	70	-0.9	257/316/365	108	333	7	26	23%	8%	93	+0.8	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Darwin Perez 2010 · A	21	48→53	37→40	50	46	223/287/299	75	315	3	9	28%	8%	68	-1.0	230/290/304	74	316	4	14	26%	7%	70	-0.8	225/287/297	72	304	5	16	26%	7%	65	-1.0
✕Rosell Herrera 2014 · A	21	52→62	41→45	47→55	43	246/296/342	96	328	9	11	27%	6%	81	-0.1	240/287/326	86	312	7	13	24%	6%	74	-0.6	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Dyan Jorge 2024 · A	21	50→52	38→30	51→60	47	238/293/323	85	295	5	15	21%	7%	75	-0.5	226/281/280	54	314	2	24	27%	7%	61	-1.5	223/282/264	41	312	1	31	27%	7%	55	-1.6
✕Jonathan Herrera 2007 · A	22	55→59	39→40	51→55	48	260/312/345	85	308	6	18	17%	7%	87	+0.4	252/301/326	74	297	4	18	16%	6%	79	-0.2	247/291/315	69	289	4	8	15%	5%	73	-0.2
✕James Triantos 2024 · A	21	51→59	40→45	53→60	46	244/297/337	93	292	7	14	19%	6%	80	-0.2	260/304/360	100	303	7	30	16%	5%	88	+0.4	270/312/373	104	312	8	35	15%	5%	91	+0.6
✕Cutter Dykstra 2011 · A	22	49→57	40	52→55	45	231/296/316	86	310	7	16	27%	8%	76	-0.4	222/281/298	76	309	5	16	28%	7%	65	-1.2	239/306/325	86	316	6	16	24%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Pedro Ramírez 2024 · A	20	48→57	42→45	51→55	48	234/298/345	111	291	9	14	22%	7%	82	+0.0	255/308/360	105	318	8	17	21%	6%	90	+0.6	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Danny Woodrow 2017 · A	22	49→59	37→30	53→55	45	226/289/308	82	313	3	11	27%	8%	71	-0.8	242/293/301	59	325	2	19	24%	6%	70	-0.9	254/301/314	60	340	2	23	25%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2024 · A	21	49	41→45	51→55	48	228/305/328	100	320	8	16	29%	10%	82	-0.0	198/259/296	98	322	10	15	39%	7%	57	-1.8	148/206/227	79	248	11	17	43%	6%	20	-1.2

Jorge Lara

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps