Alexander Mateo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alexander Mateo P DSL White Sox

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%22.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.1%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	10	0	18	88	16	8	2	0%	1.8	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	2.6%	6.00	4.91	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	10	0	18	88	16	8	2	0%	1.8	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	2.6%	6.00	4.91	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	10	0	18	88	16	8	2	0%	1.8	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	2.3%	6.00	4.10	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	2	0	2	12	1	1	0	0%	1.0	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.45	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL White Sox	2	0	2	12	1	1	0	0%	1.0	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.45	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL White Sox	2	0	2	12	1	1	0	0%	1.0	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.0%	9.00	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	3.0%	4.43	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CWS	19	0	20	84	20	8	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.30	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	CWS	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.30	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.35	3.92	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.35	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		12	0	20	100	12	11	2	0%	1.7	11.9%	11.0%	0.9%	2.3%	6.30	4.74	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	1000	119	110	23	0%	1.7	11.9%	11.0%	0.9%	2.3%	6.30	4.74	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexander Mateo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	22.8%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.30	23.2%	14.0%	20	-0.13	—	—	—
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	87
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	87
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	86
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	86
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	86
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	85
Kai Wynyard R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	20	SU	4.27	21.1%	9.1%	3.3%	.269	4.12	16.5%	3.9%	138	-0.15	3.32	257	85
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	85
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	85
Sean Boyle R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SU	4.70	21.3%	7.8%	4.4%	.342	2.87	22.6%	15.3%	86	-1.83	2.87	548	84
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	84
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	84
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	84
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	84
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	84
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	84
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	83
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	83