Johnathan Rogers

P FCL Tigers

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDET	11	9	38	3.52	3.91	19.3%	11.2%	—	K 13.1% · BB 14.0% · FIP 5.27
2025	20	ROKDET	6	1	12	4.38	5.53	23.4%	10.9%	—	K 15.9% · BB 13.7% · FIP 7.58
2026	21	MIX2 levels	18	0	26	3.51	3.45	24.4%	18.7%	—	K 17.3% · BB 16.6% · FIP 3.74
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	11	0	12	5.14	5.14	20.7%	14.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	11	0	12	4.91	4.81	21.7%	12.3%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJunior Rincon (age 23) · Tyler Santana (age 23) · Blake Holub (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.14

FIP5.14

K%20.7%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	8	0	5	0	0%	0.5	0.0%	62.5%	-62.5%	0.0%	27.00	11.02	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	1	8	0	5	0	0%	0.5	0.0%	62.5%	-62.5%	0.0%	27.00	18.10	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	9	38	161	31	18	3	82%	3.5	13.1%	14.0%	-0.9%	2.7%	3.52	5.27	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	11	9	38	161	31	18	3	82%	3.5	13.1%	14.0%	-0.9%	2.7%	3.52	5.27	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	11	9	38	161	31	18	3	82%	3.5	19.3%	11.2%	8.1%	1.9%	3.52	3.91	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	6	1	12	64	15	7	3	17%	2.1	15.9%	13.7%	2.3%	7.5%	4.38	7.58	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	6	1	12	64	15	7	3	17%	2.1	15.9%	13.7%	2.3%	7.5%	4.38	7.58	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	6	1	12	64	15	7	3	17%	2.1	23.4%	10.9%	12.5%	4.7%	4.38	5.53	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	26	123	30	23	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	16.6%	0.8%	0.0%	3.51	3.74	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	26	123	30	23	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	16.6%	0.8%	0.0%	3.51	3.74	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	26	123	30	23	0	0%	1.4	24.4%	18.7%	5.7%	0.0%	3.51	3.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	11	0	12	51	10	7	1	0%	1.1	20.7%	14.1%	6.6%	3.0%	5.14	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	23	0	24	101	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	12.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.91	4.81	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.91	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	11	6	1	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.91	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	102	17	0%	1.1	21.7%	12.3%	9.3%	2.9%	4.91	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		37	10	77	356	53	57	9	27%	2.1	14.8%	15.9%	-1.1%	2.6%	3.96	5.28	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	26	200	921	136	146	24	27%	2.1	14.8%	15.9%	-1.1%	2.6%	3.96	5.28	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johnathan Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.14	20.7%	14.1%	3.0%	—	4.81	21.7%	9.3%	24	-0.33	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	86
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	85
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	84
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	84
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	83
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	82
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	82
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	82
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	81
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	81
Fabian Anguamea R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	22	SU	5.11	16.6%	15.2%	2.7%	.295	4.53	15.8%	1.8%	96	-0.58	3.99	164	81
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	81