Drew Pestka

P Dayton Dragons

Age 23 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #670

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	14	22	2.91	2.68	27.7%	10.6%	—	K 19.0% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.26
2025	21	ACIN	31	54	4.67	2.51	26.3%	13.2%	—	K 19.5% · BB 15.5% · FIP 3.42
2026	22	A+CIN	23	29	8.79	6.13	20.1%	18.2%	—	K 15.5% · BB 20.9% · FIP 6.67
2027PROJ	23	MLBCIN	50	52	6.07	6.07	17.2%	19.2%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCIN	22	23	5.72	5.60	18.5%	16.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCIN	34	36	5.44	5.31	19.2%	14.7%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsFranklyn German (age 23) · Jeff Soptic (age 24) · Jonathan Teaney (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.07

FIP6.07

K%17.2%

BB%19.2%

K-BB%-2.0%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	94	26	10	1	0%	1.5	19.0%	15.1%	3.8%	1.5%	2.91	4.26	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	94	26	10	1	0%	1.5	19.0%	15.1%	3.8%	1.5%	2.91	4.26	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	22	94	26	10	1	0%	1.5	27.7%	10.6%	17.0%	1.1%	2.91	2.68	—
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	54	243	64	32	0	0%	1.7	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	0.0%	4.67	3.42	—
2025	21	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	54	243	64	32	0	0%	1.7	19.5%	15.5%	4.0%	0.0%	4.67	3.42	—
2025	21	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	31	0	54	243	64	32	0	0%	1.7	26.3%	13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	4.67	2.51	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	0	29	154	31	28	5	0%	1.2	15.5%	20.9%	-5.4%	4.1%	8.79	6.67	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	23	0	29	154	31	28	5	0%	1.2	15.5%	20.9%	-5.4%	4.1%	8.79	6.67	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	23	0	29	154	31	28	5	0%	1.2	20.1%	18.2%	1.9%	3.2%	8.79	6.13	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	50	0	52	220	38	42	6	0%	1.0	17.2%	19.2%	-2.0%	2.9%	6.07	6.07	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	51	0	54	227	42	37	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	16.5%	2.0%	2.9%	5.72	5.60	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	54	230	44	34	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	14.7%	4.5%	2.9%	5.44	5.31	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	22	0	23	97	18	16	3	0%	1.0	18.5%	16.5%	2.0%	2.9%	5.72	5.60	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	34	0	36	152	29	22	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	14.7%	4.5%	2.9%	5.44	5.31	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	47	39	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	15.4%	3.6%	2.9%	5.55	5.05	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	132	24	0%	1.1	19.0%	15.4%	3.6%	2.9%	5.55	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		68	0	104	491	89	84	8	0%	1.5	18.1%	17.1%	1.0%	1.6%	5.43	4.60	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	0	200	941	171	161	15	0%	1.5	18.1%	17.1%	1.0%	1.6%	5.43	4.60	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Pestka (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.07	17.2%	19.2%	2.9%	—	5.45	18.9%	3.3%	108	-0.62	—	—	—
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	90
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	89
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	88
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	88
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	88
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	88
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	87
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	86
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	86
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	86
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	86
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	84
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Chay Yeager R 2024 · 5.60 FIP	21	SU	5.60	13.1%	15.7%	2.9%	.261	4.20	22.8%	12.5%	56	-1.40	4.20	110	84
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	83
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	83
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	18.3%	16.8%	1.13	5.74
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*