Jatnk Diaz

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 22 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKDET	7	4	14	10.67	6.03	17.8%	19.2%	—	K 12.1% · BB 24.0% · FIP 7.33
2025	20	MIX2 levels	17	14	64	4.36	3.69	21.0%	10.7%	—	K 14.6% · BB 13.1% · FIP 5.12
2026	21	MIX2 levels	23	0	38	7.75	4.20	17.3%	14.3%	—	K 12.6% · BB 17.2% · FIP 4.97
2027PROJ	22	MLBDET	43	0	45	6.13	6.13	12.5%	17.0%	-0.7
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBDET	28	0	29	5.76	5.64	15.1%	14.9%	-0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBDET	41	0	43	5.46	5.33	16.7%	13.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsGarrett Apker (age 23) · Johan Moreno (age 21) · Johsson Arias (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 133

ERA6.13

FIP6.13

K%12.5%

BB%17.0%

K-BB%-4.5%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	2	0	3	12	2	2	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.80	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	2	0	3	12	2	2	0	0%	1.5	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	7	4	14	73	13	14	2	57%	2.0	12.1%	24.0%	-11.9%	4.0%	10.67	7.33	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	7	4	14	73	13	14	2	57%	2.0	12.1%	24.0%	-11.9%	4.0%	10.67	7.33	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	7	4	14	73	13	14	2	57%	2.0	17.8%	19.2%	-1.4%	2.7%	10.67	6.03	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	64	271	57	29	5	82%	3.8	14.6%	13.1%	1.5%	2.9%	4.36	5.12	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	64	271	57	29	5	82%	3.8	14.6%	13.1%	1.5%	2.9%	4.36	5.12	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	64	271	57	29	5	82%	3.8	21.0%	10.7%	10.3%	1.8%	4.36	3.69	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	196	34	28	2	0%	1.7	12.6%	17.2%	-4.6%	1.4%	7.75	4.97	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	38	196	34	28	2	0%	1.7	12.6%	17.2%	-4.6%	1.4%	7.75	4.97	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	38	196	34	28	2	0%	1.7	17.3%	14.3%	3.1%	1.0%	7.75	4.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	DET	43	0	45	190	24	32	5	0%	1.0	12.5%	17.0%	-4.5%	2.8%	6.13	6.13	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	DET	57	0	60	252	38	38	7	0%	1.0	15.1%	14.9%	0.2%	2.8%	5.76	5.64	-0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	DET	58	0	61	259	43	35	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	13.6%	3.1%	2.8%	5.46	5.33	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	DET	28	0	29	122	18	18	3	0%	1.0	15.1%	14.9%	0.2%	2.8%	5.76	5.64	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	DET	41	0	43	182	30	25	5	0%	1.0	16.7%	13.6%	3.1%	2.8%	5.46	5.33	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	0	72	305	49	43	9	0%	1.0	16.0%	14.1%	1.9%	2.8%	5.58	5.07	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	119	25	0%	1.1	16.0%	14.1%	1.9%	2.8%	5.58	5.07	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		49	18	120	552	75	89	14	37%	2.4	13.6%	16.1%	-2.5%	2.4%	6.09	5.33	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	30	200	923	125	148	23	37%	2.4	13.6%	16.1%	-2.5%	2.4%	6.09	5.33	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jatnk Diaz (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.13	12.5%	17.0%	2.8%	—	5.48	15.9%	1.7%	121	-0.65	—	—	—
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	87
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	87
Johsson Arias R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	8.5%	17.1%	1.6%	.244	3.64	15.9%	4.4%	77	-1.79	3.46	117	85
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	82
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	82
Ted Stuka R 2021 · 5.72 FIP	24	SW	5.72	12.4%	23.4%	1.3%	.262	6.22	15.9%	-13.1%	41	+0.50	5.36	105	81
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	81
Fraimin Marte R 2023 · 5.22 FIP	22	SW	5.22	12.2%	16.2%	2.0%	.202	5.46	18.7%	0.3%	23	+0.24	4.56	111	80
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	80
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	79
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	79
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	79
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	78
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	78
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	78
Miguel Mora R 2023 · 6.90 FIP	21	SU	6.90	10.5%	26.8%	2.4%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	151	78
Frankie De La Cruz R 2008 · 7.16 FIP	24	SW	7.16	7.5%	20.8%	3.8%	.361	2.87	16.4%	7.3%	13	-4.29	2.87	262	78
Juan Soto R 2023 · 6.68 FIP	20	SW	6.68	8.9%	24.0%	2.3%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.06	102	77
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	77
Bryan Sanchez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SW	5.44	12.4%	18.4%	1.9%	.339	6.25	21.8%	6.8%	15	+0.81	2.99	142	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	15.0%	15.0%	1.09	5.75
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*