Joey Gartrell — OGILVIE

Joey Gartrell P Greenville Drive

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%18.3%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	7	41	193	42	32	2	41%	2.4	14.5%	21.1%	-6.6%	1.7%	6.20	5.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	7	41	193	42	32	2	41%	2.4	14.5%	21.1%	-6.6%	1.7%	6.20	5.48	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	7	41	193	42	32	2	41%	2.4	21.8%	16.6%	5.2%	1.0%	6.20	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	34	0	68	315	72	39	11	0%	2.0	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	4.4%	5.32	5.89	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	34	0	68	315	72	39	11	0%	2.0	17.2%	14.4%	2.8%	4.4%	5.32	5.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	BOS	16	0	31	136	43	14	3	0%	1.9	31.6%	10.3%	21.3%	2.2%	4.06	2.94	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	BOS	18	0	37	179	29	25	8	0%	2.0	16.2%	14.0%	2.2%	4.5%	6.38	5.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BOS	65	0	68	287	57	45	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	15.8%	3.9%	2.9%	5.52	5.38	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	BOS	66	0	69	290	60	40	8	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	2.9%	5.22	5.08	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	BOS	66	0	69	290	61	40	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.7%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	5.01	-0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	BOS	65	0	68	286	60	39	8	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.6%	7.4%	2.9%	5.05	5.03	-0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	BOS	63	0	66	278	58	38	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	13.8%	7.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.12	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	BOS	60	0	63	265	55	37	8	0%	1.0	20.6%	14.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.19	5.25	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	BOS	28	0	29	122	24	19	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	15.8%	3.9%	2.9%	5.52	5.38	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	BOS	44	0	46	194	40	27	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	13.9%	6.6%	2.9%	5.22	5.08	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	BOS	52	0	55	232	49	32	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.7%	7.3%	2.9%	5.08	5.01	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55	0	58	245	51	33	7	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.6%	7.4%	2.9%	5.05	5.03	-0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	BOS	56	0	59	249	52	34	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	13.8%	7.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.12	-0.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	BOS	54	0	57	241	50	34	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	14.0%	6.6%	3.2%	5.19	5.25	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		289	0	303	1279	265	179	38	0%	1.0	20.7%	14.0%	6.7%	3.0%	5.16	4.75	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	118	25	0%	1.1	20.7%	14.0%	6.7%	3.0%	5.16	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		51	7	108	508	82	86	17	14%	2.1	16.2%	16.9%	-0.8%	3.4%	5.65	5.73	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	13	200	938	152	159	32	14%	2.1	16.2%	16.9%	-0.8%	3.4%	5.65	5.73	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Gartrell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	18.3%	18.6%	2.9%	—	5.16	20.4%	6.0%	206	-0.71	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	83
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	83
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	83
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	82
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	82
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	82
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	81
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	81
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	81
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	81
Josue Gerardo R 2016 · 5.33 FIP	23	SU	5.33	17.8%	23.5%	1.4%	.220	5.99	16.5%	-6.0%	30	+0.66	4.59	122	81
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	80
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	80
Edward Baram R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	22	SU	5.05	18.5%	22.7%	1.2%	.354	5.57	15.4%	0.5%	95	+0.52	5.05	119	80
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	79
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	79
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	79
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	60	20.5%	14.3%	1.14	5.23
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41