Phil Fox — OGILVIE

Phil Fox P Birmingham Barons

Age 23 RHP 5'9" / 183 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 87

ERA3.71

FIP3.71

K%24.0%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%19.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	23.3%	5.6%	17.6%	2.8%	3.25	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	23.3%	5.6%	17.6%	2.8%	3.25	3.37	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	30.1%	4.6%	25.5%	1.9%	3.25	2.24	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	34	2	42	174	42	14	6	6%	1.2	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.4%	2.98	5.22	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	34	2	42	174	42	14	6	6%	1.2	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	4.4%	2.98	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	CWS	2	0	4	12	6	0	0	0%	1.9	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.00	-1.12	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CWS	32	2	39	162	36	14	6	6%	1.2	22.2%	8.6%	13.6%	3.7%	3.26	4.35	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	6	1	1	0%	1.1	24.0%	5.0%	19.0%	3.0%	3.71	3.71	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	49	201	48	15	7	—	—	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	3.4%	3.07	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	88	0	92	389	95	20	11	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	2.9%	3.71	3.67	+1.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	89	0	93	394	97	20	12	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.1%	19.4%	2.9%	3.70	3.66	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	89	0	93	394	97	20	12	0%	1.0	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	2.9%	3.69	3.67	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	88	0	92	388	95	21	12	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.3%	19.2%	3.0%	3.71	3.72	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	85	0	89	377	92	21	12	0%	1.0	24.4%	5.5%	18.9%	3.1%	3.77	3.80	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	81	0	85	360	87	21	12	0%	1.1	24.2%	5.7%	18.5%	3.2%	3.87	3.93	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	76	0	80	338	81	20	12	0%	1.1	23.8%	6.0%	17.8%	3.4%	4.01	4.11	+0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	38	0	40	169	41	8	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	3.0%	3.74	3.70	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	59	0	62	262	64	13	8	0%	1.1	24.5%	5.1%	19.4%	3.0%	3.73	3.69	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	70	0	74	312	77	16	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	5.2%	19.4%	3.0%	3.72	3.70	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	75	0	79	334	82	18	10	0%	1.1	24.5%	5.3%	19.2%	3.0%	3.74	3.75	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	75	0	79	334	81	18	10	0%	1.1	24.4%	5.5%	18.9%	3.1%	3.80	3.83	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	73	0	77	325	79	19	11	0%	1.1	24.2%	5.7%	18.5%	3.3%	3.90	3.96	+0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	70	0	74	312	74	19	11	0%	1.1	23.8%	6.0%	17.8%	3.5%	4.04	4.14	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		464	0	487	2055	500	112	65	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.1%	3.82	3.46	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	46	27	0%	1.1	24.3%	5.4%	18.9%	3.1%	3.82	3.46	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		80	2	106	433	92	31	15	2%	1.3	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	3.4%	3.14	4.11	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	4	200	817	173	59	28	2%	1.3	21.1%	7.2%	14.0%	3.4%	3.14	4.11	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Phil Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.71	24.0%	5.0%	3.0%	—	3.67	24.5%	19.4%	279	-0.04	—	—	—
Dan Slania R 2015 · 3.38 FIP	23	SU	3.38	23.2%	5.4%	2.8%	.335	4.52	17.5%	8.7%	331	+1.14	3.38	403	90
Nick Rumbelow R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	22.6%	6.1%	2.4%	.295	3.54	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.26	2.03	164	87
Edubray Ramos R 2016 · 2.62 FIP	23	SU	2.62	24.5%	4.7%	1.8%	.263	3.36	25.6%	16.8%	115	+0.74	2.62	264	86
John Fasola R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	21.5%	5.7%	3.3%	.294	2.96	19.8%	11.6%	58	-0.85	2.72	124	84
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	84
Michael Tonkin R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	25	SU	3.09	23.8%	4.9%	2.5%	.240	3.77	27.2%	18.6%	134	+0.68	2.31	480	83
Ryan Halstead R 2016 · 3.12 FIP	24	SU	3.12	20.7%	4.8%	2.1%	.331	3.54	17.5%	11.0%	168	+0.42	3.12	222	82
Nate Harris R 2018 · 3.26 FIP	23	SU	3.26	20.3%	2.8%	2.8%	.345	5.48	14.2%	6.6%	161	+2.22	3.26	231	82
Michael Dimock R 2015 · 3.08 FIP	25	SU	3.08	25.1%	2.3%	3.3%	.291	3.83	23.2%	13.8%	106	+0.75	3.08	166	82
Zack Weiss R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	23	SU	3.27	27.1%	7.0%	2.9%	.299	4.43	22.5%	8.0%	39	+1.16	3.05	368	82
Silvino Bracho R 2015 · 2.62 FIP	23	SU	2.62	28.5%	5.2%	2.3%	.281	3.83	26.4%	18.6%	180	+1.21	2.49	395	82
Keynan Middleton R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SU	3.96	23.5%	6.8%	3.6%	.306	3.96	21.8%	10.5%	30	-0.00	3.38	438	82
Sauryn Lao R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	23	SU	3.31	23.8%	5.2%	2.9%	.367	3.28	20.0%	12.9%	128	-0.03	3.11	182	81
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	81
Jake Smith R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	28.1%	7.5%	2.6%	.243	4.69	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.58	3.11	110	80
Brendan McCurry R 2015 · 2.53 FIP	23	SU	2.53	26.1%	6.9%	1.4%	.241	3.12	23.2%	17.4%	190	+0.59	2.53	308	80
Eric Orze R 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SU	3.47	26.9%	7.6%	3.1%	.284	4.24	26.7%	15.9%	170	+0.77	3.42	351	80
Mike Morin R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	24	SU	3.22	24.7%	5.7%	2.7%	.355	3.64	19.0%	13.4%	169	+0.42	3.03	302	80
Josh Martin R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	25	SU	3.16	24.1%	7.4%	2.1%	.257	2.96	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.20	2.41	225	80
Eric Peterson R 2016 · 2.67 FIP	23	SU	2.67	20.6%	4.5%	1.3%	.316	5.60	9.9%	4.0%	13	+2.93	2.67	149	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	89	24.3%	5.3%	1.18	3.77
Hyun Jin Ryu ('23)	3.5	101	22.0%	5.4%	1.17	3.27
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Julio Urías ('23)	3.6	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01