Phil Fox — OGILVIE

Phil Fox P Birmingham Barons

Age 23 RHP 5'9" / 183 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION30 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 87

ERA3.78

FIP3.78

K%24.0%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%18.6%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	23.3%	5.6%	17.6%	3.0%	3.25	3.51	—
2025	22	MIX	2 levels	46	0	64	259	78	12	5	0%	1.4	30.1%	4.6%	25.5%	1.9%	3.25	2.24	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AA	Birmingham Barons	22	2	30	114	30	6	2	9%	1.3	19.1%	6.5%	12.6%	2.4%	2.12	3.60	+0.3
ROS	23	MLB	CWS	86	0	90	380	91	20	11	0%	1.0	24.0%	5.3%	18.6%	3.0%	3.78	3.78	+1.5
ROS	23	MLB	CWS	2	0	2	8	2	0	0	0%	1.0	24.0%	5.3%	18.6%	3.1%	3.81	3.81	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB	CWS	—	—	120	494	121	26	13	—	—	24.5%	5.3%	19.2%	2.7%	3.37	3.74	+2.3
2026 FULL	23	MLB	CWS	—	—	2	8	2	0	0	—	—	24.0%	5.3%	18.6%	3.1%	3.81	3.43	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CWS	88	0	92	389	95	21	12	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.4%	19.0%	3.0%	3.77	3.74	+1.6
2028	25	MLB	CWS	89	0	93	394	97	21	12	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.4%	19.1%	3.0%	3.75	3.72	+1.7
2029	26	MLB	CWS	89	0	93	394	97	22	12	0%	1.0	24.6%	5.5%	19.1%	3.0%	3.74	3.72	+1.7
2030	27	MLB	CWS	88	0	92	388	95	22	12	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.6%	18.9%	3.0%	3.76	3.77	+1.6
2031	28	MLB	CWS	85	0	89	377	92	22	12	0%	1.0	24.4%	5.8%	18.7%	3.1%	3.82	3.86	+1.4
2032	29	MLB	CWS	81	0	85	360	87	22	12	0%	1.1	24.2%	6.0%	18.2%	3.3%	3.92	3.99	+1.1
2033	30	MLB	CWS	76	0	80	338	81	21	12	0%	1.1	23.8%	6.3%	17.5%	3.5%	4.07	4.17	+0.8
2034	31	MLB	CWS	71	0	75	315	80	18	12	0%	1.1	25.4%	5.8%	19.6%	3.7%	4.09	4.10	+0.7
2027	24	MLB	CWS	38	0	40	169	41	9	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	5.4%	19.0%	3.0%	3.80	3.77	+0.4
2028	25	MLB	CWS	59	0	62	262	64	14	8	0%	1.1	24.5%	5.4%	19.1%	3.0%	3.78	3.75	+0.6
2029	26	MLB	CWS	70	0	74	312	77	17	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	5.5%	19.1%	3.0%	3.77	3.75	+1.0
2030	27	MLB	CWS	75	0	79	334	82	19	10	0%	1.1	24.5%	5.6%	18.9%	3.1%	3.79	3.80	+1.1
2031	28	MLB	CWS	75	0	79	334	81	19	11	0%	1.1	24.4%	5.8%	18.7%	3.2%	3.85	3.89	+1.0
2032	29	MLB	CWS	73	0	77	325	79	19	11	0%	1.1	24.2%	6.0%	18.2%	3.3%	3.95	4.02	+0.8
2033	30	MLB	CWS	70	0	74	312	74	20	11	0%	1.1	23.8%	6.3%	17.5%	3.5%	4.10	4.20	+0.6
2034	31	MLB	CWS	67	0	70	296	75	17	11	0%	1.0	25.4%	5.8%	19.6%	3.8%	4.13	4.14	+0.5
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			531	0	558	2356	577	135	76	0%	1.1	24.5%	5.7%	18.7%	3.2%	3.90	3.54	+12.1
/ 200 IP	—			190	0	200	844	207	48	27	0%	1.0	24.5%	5.7%	18.7%	3.2%	3.90	3.54	+4.3
Career	—			68	2	93	373	82	22	10	3%	1.4	22.0%	5.9%	16.1%	2.8%	2.89	3.54	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—			146	4	200	799	176	47	22	3%	1.4	22.0%	5.9%	16.1%	2.8%	2.89	3.54	+4.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Phil Fox (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	24.0%	5.3%	3.0%	—	3.73	24.5%	19.1%	279	-0.05	—	—	—
Dan Slania R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	23	SU	3.34	23.2%	5.4%	2.8%	.335	4.74	17.5%	8.7%	331	+1.40	3.34	403	91
Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	23	SU	3.43	22.6%	6.1%	2.7%	.295	3.60	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.17	2.03	164	89
John Fasola R 2026 · 3.78 FIP	23	SU	3.78	21.5%	5.7%	3.2%	.294	2.94	19.8%	11.6%	58	-0.84	2.72	124	86
Edubray Ramos R 2026 · 2.63 FIP	23	SU	2.63	24.5%	4.7%	1.8%	.263	3.41	25.6%	16.8%	115	+0.78	2.63	264	85
Travis Hissong R 2028 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	23.6%	4.9%	2.5%	.256	3.94	20.3%	6.8%	50	+0.83	3.11	122	84
Matt Jachec R 2026 · 3.29 FIP	23	SU	3.29	25.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.347	3.71	22.0%	13.4%	48	+0.42	3.29	120	84
Ryan Halstead R 2027 · 3.40 FIP	24	SU	3.40	20.7%	4.8%	2.6%	.331	3.74	17.5%	11.0%	168	+0.34	3.31	222	84
Michael Tonkin R 2028 · 3.11 FIP	25	SU	3.11	23.8%	4.9%	2.5%	.240	3.77	27.2%	18.6%	134	+0.66	2.33	480	83
Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.74 FIP	24	SU	3.74	22.6%	7.3%	3.0%	.282	2.79	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.95	2.72	107	83
Josh Martin R 2028 · 3.43 FIP	25	SU	3.43	24.1%	7.4%	2.6%	.257	2.89	20.7%	13.6%	124	-0.54	2.31	225	83
Zack Weiss R 2026 · 3.21 FIP	23	SU	3.21	27.1%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	4.32	22.5%	8.0%	39	+1.11	2.88	368	83
Keynan Middleton R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	23.5%	6.8%	3.8%	.306	4.04	21.8%	10.5%	30	-0.03	3.43	438	83
Bear Bellomy R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	23.1%	6.9%	3.9%	.274	5.47	15.0%	8.2%	72	+1.31	4.16	139	82
Joshua Loeschorn R 2026 · 3.74 FIP	23	SU	3.74	24.5%	7.7%	3.1%	.272	4.60	16.4%	7.6%	67	+0.86	3.04	135	82
Eric Orze R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	23	SU	3.53	26.9%	7.6%	3.2%	.284	4.27	27.8%	15.6%	170	+0.74	3.06	331	82
Jake Smith R 2028 · 3.07 FIP	25	SU	3.07	28.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.243	4.73	19.3%	-1.7%	26	+1.66	3.07	110	81
Kelly Austin R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SU	4.15	23.9%	5.6%	4.3%	.273	4.51	18.3%	5.8%	78	+0.36	4.15	119	81
Sauryn Lao R 2026 · 3.32 FIP	23	SU	3.32	23.8%	5.2%	2.9%	.367	3.36	21.0%	12.8%	128	+0.04	3.19	182	81
Mike Morin R 2027 · 3.27 FIP	24	SU	3.27	24.7%	5.7%	2.8%	.355	3.69	19.0%	13.4%	169	+0.42	3.11	302	80
Ryan Dull R 2028 · 3.09 FIP	25	SU	3.09	25.5%	6.8%	2.4%	.242	3.89	25.2%	19.2%	170	+0.80	3.09	345	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9	88	24.4%	5.7%	1.22	3.85
Ross Stripling ('24)	9	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	8	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
David Price ('22)	7	132	24.3%	6.2%	1.06	3.46
Julio Urías ('23)	7	102	24.2%	6.6%	1.06	3.13
Alex Wood ('24)	9	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98