Phil Fox
P
Winston-Salem Dash
+0.7
WAR
Age 23
RHP
5'9" / 183 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2028
ERA4.14
FIP4.14
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%15.4%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2028
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 46 | 0 | 64 | 259 | 78 | 12 | 5 | 23.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 3.25 | 3.33 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | CWS | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 59 | 20 | 7 | 23.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 62 | 20 | 8 | 23.9% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 24.2% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.06 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 64 | 21 | 8 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 63 | 21 | 8 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 62 | 20 | 8 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.05 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 61 | 20 | 8 | 24.2% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 4.11 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.13 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 56 | 19 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 23.5% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 50 | 18 | 7 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.37 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 22.9% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 43 | 17 | 7 | 22.5% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 40 | 17 | 7 | 22.1% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 0 | 64 | 259 | 60 | 15 | 7 | 23.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 3.25 | 3.33 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 0 | 200 | 814 | 188 | 47 | 22 | 23.3% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 3.25 | 3.33 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Phil Fox (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.14 | 23.4% | 8.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.04 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 185 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Breckin Williams R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 93 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 93 |
| John Fasola R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.82 | 21.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | .294 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 58 | -0.85 | 2.72 | 124 | 92 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 90 |
| Dan Slania R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.37 | 23.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | .335 | 4.51 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 331 | +1.14 | 3.37 | 403 | 90 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 90 |
| Parker Curry R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.75 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .341 | 4.60 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.85 | 3.75 | 256 | 89 |
| Zack Weiss R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.28 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .299 | 4.49 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 39 | +1.21 | 3.13 | 368 | 89 |
| Nick Merkel R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| Keynan Middleton R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .306 | 3.87 | 21.8% | 10.5% | 30 | +0.05 | 3.40 | 408 | 88 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 88 |
| Casey Cobb R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 87 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.64 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 229 | -0.12 | 2.94 | 385 | 87 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 87 |
| Josh Martin R 2028 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 87 |
| Mat Olsen R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.26 | 26.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .360 | 3.59 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 47 | +0.33 | 2.68 | 161 | 87 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.10 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 1.8% | .324 | 4.59 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 229 | +1.49 | 3.10 | 355 | 87 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.84 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.99 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.15 | 3.63 | 386 | 86 |
| Darin Gillies R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% | .236 | 4.71 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 183 | +0.48 | 4.22 | 295 | 86 |
| Bear Bellomy R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.54 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | .274 | 5.62 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 72 | +1.08 | 4.54 | 139 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $9M | $16M | +$7M | ||