Keynan Middleton
P
Oklahoma City Comets
+0.4
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'3" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA3.91
FIP4.27
xFIP3.26
SIERA3.34
K%24.8%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%15.2%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF7070
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†6565
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p9036.0%
K%
p9030.2%
xwOBA vs
p640.298
CH+3.8
FB+3.2
SL-2.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Burlington Bees | 26 | 26 | 126 | 549 | 88 | 47 | 15 | 11.9% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 5.30 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 22 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 46 | 0 | 66 | 271 | 88 | 28 | 9 | 25.8% | 11.7% | 4.6% | 3.41 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 74 | 0 | 71 | 298 | 71 | 20 | 11 | 23.5% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 3.68 | 3.82 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 17 | 1 | 19 | 76 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 1.4% | 1.93 | 3.40 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 21 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 22 | 13 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.08 | — | — |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 13 | 0 | 12 | 53 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 20.8% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 5.25 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 39 | 2 | 39 | 172 | 37 | 20 | 3 | 17.1% | 12.9% | 1.5% | 4.42 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 36 | 1 | 35 | 139 | 41 | 10 | 6 | 26.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.60 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 54 | 0 | 54 | 223 | 67 | 25 | 8 | 30.2% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 3.19 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 30 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.38 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | LAD | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 27.6% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 3.82 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 52 | 220 | 59 | 23 | 6 | 26.9% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.69 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.07 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 26.2% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.26 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.42 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 39 | 17 | 6 | 24.7% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 336 | 33 | 447 | 1895 | 396 | 202 | 57 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 4.33 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 15 | 200 | 849 | 177 | 90 | 26 | 20.9% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Keynan Middleton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 27.6% | 9.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.38 | 26.2% | 16.1% | 126 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 81 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 79 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 79 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 79 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.42 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .235 | 4.92 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.50 | 2.00 | 320 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 77 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 77 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.02 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .263 | 3.46 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.44 | 2.58 | 277 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 77 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 77 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.03 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .305 | 5.07 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.04 | 2.83 | 239 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 76 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 76 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 74 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.