Mathieu Curtis

P Rome Emperors

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	21	MIX2 levels	30	2	53	2.53	2.28	29.7%	9.1%	—	K 22.6% · BB 10.6% · FIP 3.17
2027PROJ	22	MLBATL	35	0	37	4.37	4.37	22.6%	10.3%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBATL	24	0	25	4.27	4.20	23.4%	9.6%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBATL	34	0	36	4.17	4.09	23.9%	9.2%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsHeath Holder (age 23) · David Garner (age 22) · Cody Palmquist (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%12.3%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	53	219	65	20	2	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	2	53	219	65	20	2	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	2	53	219	65	20	2	7%	1.8	29.7%	9.1%	20.5%	0.9%	2.53	2.28	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	ATL	35	0	37	156	35	16	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ATL	47	0	50	210	49	20	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.20	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	ATL	49	0	51	215	52	20	6	0%	1.0	23.9%	9.2%	14.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.09	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	ATL	49	0	52	218	53	19	6	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.7%	4.09	4.03	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	ATL	49	0	52	218	53	19	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+0.3
2032	27	MLB MLE	ATL	48	0	51	214	52	19	6	0%	1.1	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.7%	4.05	4.06	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	ATL	24	0	25	106	25	10	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.27	4.20	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	ATL	34	0	36	152	36	14	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	9.2%	14.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.09	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	ATL	40	0	42	177	43	16	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.4%	2.7%	4.09	4.03	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	ATL	43	0	45	190	47	17	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.9%	15.6%	2.7%	4.05	4.02	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	ATL	44	0	46	194	48	17	5	0%	1.0	24.5%	9.0%	15.5%	2.7%	4.05	4.06	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		184	0	193	816	197	74	22	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.7%	4.11	3.69	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	77	23	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.7%	4.11	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		30	2	53	219	49	23	3	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	8	200	821	186	87	10	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mathieu Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.6%	10.3%	2.7%	—	4.11	23.9%	14.7%	152	-0.26	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	92
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	92
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	92
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	90
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	89
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	89
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	88
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	88
Shane Broyles R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	21.9%	11.5%	2.2%	.338	3.75	25.7%	14.5%	159	-0.16	3.34	218	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	88
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87
Alex Klonowski R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	21.8%	9.4%	2.1%	.331	4.69	14.3%	7.1%	413	+1.11	3.58	539	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	87
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	49	23.9%	9.3%	1.05	4.16
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Danny Farquhar ('18)	1.4	54	26.9%	9.2%	0.99	3.93
Carlos Diaz ('82-'86, 2 WAR*)	1.3	52	25.1%*	8.7%*	0.91*	3.84*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*