Mathieu Curtis — OGILVIE

Mathieu Curtis P Rome Emperors

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.4 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 100

ERA4.39

FIP4.39

K%23.1%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%13.3%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	30	2	53	219	65	20	2	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	30	2	53	219	65	20	2	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	ATL	8	0	14	53	19	5	1	0%	1.8	35.8%	9.4%	26.4%	1.9%	0.63	2.30	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	ATL	22	2	39	166	46	15	1	9%	1.8	27.7%	9.0%	18.7%	0.6%	3.23	2.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ATL	52	0	55	231	56	21	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	ATL	54	0	57	240	59	21	7	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.7%	16.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.06	+0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	ATL	56	0	58	246	62	21	7	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.5%	16.7%	2.8%	4.06	3.98	+0.4
2030	25	MLB MLE	ATL	56	0	59	249	64	21	7	0%	1.1	25.5%	8.3%	17.1%	2.8%	3.99	3.93	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	ATL	56	0	59	249	64	21	7	0%	1.1	25.7%	8.3%	17.4%	2.8%	3.94	3.91	+0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	ATL	55	0	58	245	63	21	7	0%	1.1	25.7%	8.4%	17.3%	2.9%	3.94	3.95	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	ATL	26	0	27	114	27	10	3	0%	1.0	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.27	4.19	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	ATL	40	0	42	177	44	15	5	0%	1.1	24.7%	8.7%	16.0%	2.9%	4.15	4.06	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	ATL	46	0	48	203	51	17	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.5%	16.7%	2.8%	4.06	3.98	+0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	ATL	50	0	52	220	56	18	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	8.3%	17.1%	2.8%	3.99	3.93	+0.4
2031	26	MLB CTX	ATL	51	0	54	228	59	19	6	0%	1.1	25.7%	8.3%	17.4%	2.8%	3.94	3.91	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	ATL	51	0	54	228	59	19	7	0%	1.1	25.7%	8.4%	17.3%	2.9%	3.94	3.95	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		264	0	277	1169	295	99	33	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.5%	16.8%	2.8%	4.03	3.60	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	213	72	24	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.5%	16.8%	2.8%	4.03	3.60	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		30	2	53	219	49	23	3	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		112	8	200	821	186	87	10	7%	1.8	22.6%	10.6%	12.0%	1.2%	2.53	3.17	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mathieu Curtis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	23.1%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.07	24.6%	15.9%	170	-0.32	—	—	—
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	92
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	91
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	90
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	90
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	89
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	88
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	87
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	86
Scott Williams R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	21	SU	3.39	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.73	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.34	2.89	119	86
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	86
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	86
John Russell R 2018 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.76	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.78	3.94	158	86
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	85
Alex Cook R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	22	SU	4.04	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.76	21.7%	13.9%	96	-0.28	2.93	162	85
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	85
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	85
Gerson Moreno R 2017 · 3.76 FIP	21	SU	3.76	23.6%	12.1%	2.1%	.294	5.22	21.3%	2.0%	17	+1.46	3.44	349	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	55	24.9%	8.7%	1.11	4.09
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33