Tayler Montiel

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	AARI	5	5	5.40	1.10	36.4%	9.1%	—	K 36.4% · BB 9.1% · FIP 1.18
2026	24	MIX3 levels	43	64	4.24	3.89	28.8%	12.8%	—	K 22.0% · BB 14.7% · FIP 5.07
2027PROJ	25	MLBARI	43	45	5.10	5.10	22.1%	13.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBARI	23	24	5.00	5.00	22.4%	13.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBARI	33	35	4.97	4.98	22.5%	13.2%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMitchell Tyranski (age 25) · Nick Hagadone (age 26) · Hector Mercado (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%22.1%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	22	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	5.40	1.18	—
2025	23	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	22	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	5.40	1.18	—
2025	23	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	5	0	5	22	8	2	0	0%	1.0	36.4%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	5.40	1.10	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	64	281	81	36	8	0%	1.5	22.0%	14.7%	7.2%	3.6%	4.24	5.07	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	43	0	64	281	81	36	8	0%	1.5	22.0%	14.7%	7.2%	3.6%	4.24	5.07	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	43	0	64	281	81	36	8	0%	1.5	28.8%	12.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.24	3.89	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	ARI	43	0	45	190	42	26	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.9%	8.2%	3.1%	5.10	5.10	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	55	0	57	242	54	32	8	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.4%	9.0%	3.1%	5.00	5.00	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	54	0	56	238	54	31	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.97	4.98	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	23	0	24	101	23	14	3	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.4%	9.0%	3.1%	5.00	5.00	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	33	0	35	148	33	19	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.2%	9.3%	3.2%	4.97	4.98	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	253	57	34	8	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.98	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	114	27	0%	1.1	22.5%	13.3%	9.2%	3.1%	4.98	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		48	0	69	303	70	43	10	0%	1.4	23.0%	14.3%	8.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.79	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	883	203	126	29	0%	1.4	23.0%	14.3%	8.7%	3.3%	4.33	4.79	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tayler Montiel (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	22.1%	13.9%	3.1%	—	4.99	22.4%	9.1%	114	-0.11	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	91
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	88
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	88
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	87
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	86
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	85
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	83
Trey Cumbie L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	25	SU	4.54	25.3%	15.3%	3.0%	.284	5.07	23.3%	7.2%	42	+0.53	3.44	152	83
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	83
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	83
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	83
Brendan Cellucci L 2023 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	21.2%	14.6%	3.3%	.381	4.21	23.7%	9.6%	137	-0.78	3.98	288	83
Keylan Killgore L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	21.7%	12.3%	4.1%	.342	3.73	24.6%	10.5%	53	-1.36	3.73	161	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	82
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	82
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	82
José Manuel Fernández L 2018 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	21.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.253	5.08	13.6%	4.9%	61	+0.33	3.35	263	82
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	82
Ty Madrigal L 2022 · 5.75 FIP	25	SU	5.75	17.6%	15.2%	4.0%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	107	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	22.3%	13.5%	1.21	5.02
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*