Will Gagnon — OGILVIE

Will Gagnon P Ontario Tower Buzzers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%24.2%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	29	7	73	333	114	53	4	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	29	7	73	333	114	53	4	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	LAD	25	3	56	259	88	44	2	12%	2.2	34.0%	17.0%	17.0%	0.8%	4.20	2.81	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAD	4	4	18	74	26	9	2	100%	4.4	35.1%	12.2%	23.0%	2.7%	1.53	3.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	71	0	74	315	78	39	9	0%	1.0	24.8%	12.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.57	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	73	0	76	323	81	37	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.38	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	74	0	77	327	83	35	9	0%	1.0	25.5%	10.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.35	4.25	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	74	0	77	327	84	35	9	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.23	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	73	0	76	322	83	34	9	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.7%	15.0%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAD	70	0	74	312	80	34	9	0%	1.1	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.32	4.36	+0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAD	67	0	71	298	75	33	9	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.0%	14.3%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAD	63	0	66	280	70	32	9	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.3%	13.6%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	35	0	37	156	39	20	5	0%	1.1	24.8%	12.5%	12.3%	2.9%	4.67	4.57	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	50	0	53	224	57	25	6	0%	1.1	25.3%	11.4%	13.9%	2.9%	4.49	4.38	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	60	0	63	266	68	28	8	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.35	4.25	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	65	0	68	287	74	30	8	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.6%	15.1%	2.9%	4.28	4.23	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	66	0	69	291	75	31	9	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.7%	15.0%	2.9%	4.27	4.27	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAD	65	0	68	287	73	31	9	0%	1.0	25.6%	10.8%	14.8%	3.0%	4.32	4.36	+0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAD	63	0	66	279	71	31	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	11.0%	14.3%	3.2%	4.42	4.49	+0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAD	59	0	62	262	65	30	9	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.3%	13.6%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		462	0	485	2048	520	226	62	0%	1.0	25.4%	11.0%	14.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.01	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	93	26	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.0%	14.4%	3.0%	4.40	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		29	7	73	333	85	62	5	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	19	200	908	232	170	14	24%	2.5	25.6%	18.7%	6.9%	1.5%	3.56	4.15	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Gagnon (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	24.2%	14.3%	3.0%	—	4.40	25.2%	13.7%	228	-0.48	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	81
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	81
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	81
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	79
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	79
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	78
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	78
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	78
Austin Vernon R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	26.6%	14.9%	3.0%	.234	4.62	22.7%	7.8%	182	+0.24	3.37	261	78
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	77
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	77
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	77
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	77
Alex Pham R 2022 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	26.6%	14.5%	2.8%	.364	3.99	23.0%	12.4%	272	-0.24	3.73	349	77
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	77
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	69	25.3%	11.3%	1.16	4.44
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58