Nestor Pirela prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nestor Pirela P DSL Cubs Red

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.22

FIP5.22

K%21.6%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	8	0	12	57	7	4	0	0%	1.5	8.4%	8.8%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.94	3.51	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	8	0	12	57	7	4	0	0%	1.5	8.4%	8.8%	-0.4%	0.0%	6.94	3.51	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	8	0	12	57	7	4	0	0%	1.5	12.3%	7.0%	5.3%	0.0%	6.94	2.93	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	23	101	23	18	1	0%	1.8	15.5%	22.3%	-6.8%	1.4%	5.79	5.36	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	23	101	23	18	1	0%	1.8	15.5%	22.3%	-6.8%	1.4%	5.79	5.36	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	13	0	23	101	23	18	1	0%	1.8	22.8%	17.8%	5.0%	1.0%	5.79	4.00	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	15.3%	6.3%	3.0%	5.22	5.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	—	21	0	22	93	21	12	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.90	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	—	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	110	18	0%	1.0	22.2%	13.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.99	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		21	0	35	158	20	27	1	0%	1.7	12.9%	17.4%	-4.5%	0.9%	6.17	4.69	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	0	200	903	117	157	8	0%	1.7	12.9%	17.4%	-4.5%	0.9%	6.17	4.69	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor Pirela (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.22	21.6%	15.3%	3.0%	—	4.90	22.2%	8.8%	22	-0.32	—	—	—
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	90
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	89
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	89
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	87
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	85
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	84
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	84
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	84
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	84
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	84
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	84
Daniel Procopio R 2017 · 4.33 FIP	21	SU	4.33	23.4%	18.8%	1.5%	.283	4.43	20.5%	6.5%	81	+0.10	4.16	103	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	83
Orlando Romero R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	20	SU	4.53	19.4%	14.8%	2.2%	.294	4.66	18.5%	6.7%	62	+0.13	3.92	162	83