Jesus Carrera

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2033

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKHOU	10	3	26	3.76	2.11	28.3%	6.6%	—	K 19.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.17
2025	20	MIX2 levels	13	4	40	2.90	1.17	37.1%	6.6%	—	K 26.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 2.31
2026	21	AHOU	23	6	85	4.43	4.46	19.9%	9.7%	—	K 14.8% · BB 11.5% · FIP 5.61
2027PROJ	22	MLBHOU	44	0	46	5.03	5.03	17.9%	10.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBHOU	37	0	39	4.83	4.75	19.6%	9.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBHOU	54	0	57	4.67	4.58	20.7%	9.3%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsHuei-Sheng Lin (age 22) · Danny Kirwin (age 24) · Nick Gallagher (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%17.9%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%7.3%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	6	3	19	70	27	6	0	50%	3.2	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	0.0%	3.32	2.24	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	6	3	19	70	27	6	0	50%	3.2	38.6%	8.6%	30.0%	0.0%	3.32	1.21	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	10	3	26	106	30	7	1	30%	2.6	19.2%	8.3%	11.0%	1.2%	3.76	3.17	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	10	3	26	106	30	7	1	30%	2.6	19.2%	8.3%	11.0%	1.2%	3.76	3.17	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	10	3	26	106	30	7	1	30%	2.6	28.3%	6.6%	21.7%	0.9%	3.76	2.11	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	40	167	62	11	1	31%	3.1	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	0.8%	2.90	2.31	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	40	167	62	11	1	31%	3.1	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	0.8%	2.90	2.31	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	40	167	62	11	1	31%	3.1	37.1%	6.6%	30.5%	0.6%	2.90	1.17	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	6	85	371	74	36	12	26%	3.7	14.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.2%	4.43	5.61	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	6	85	371	74	36	12	26%	3.7	14.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.2%	4.43	5.61	—
2026	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	6	85	371	74	36	12	26%	3.7	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.2%	4.43	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	HOU	44	0	46	194	35	21	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	10.6%	7.3%	3.1%	5.03	5.03	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	HOU	76	0	80	337	66	33	10	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.83	4.75	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	HOU	78	0	82	345	71	32	10	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.58	-0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	HOU	79	0	83	349	74	31	11	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.49	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	HOU	79	0	83	349	75	31	11	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.46	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	HOU	78	0	82	344	74	31	11	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	HOU	75	0	79	334	78	28	11	0%	1.1	23.2%	8.3%	14.9%	3.2%	4.38	4.31	+0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	HOU	72	0	76	319	73	27	11	0%	1.0	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	3.3%	4.42	4.44	+0.1
2035	30	MLB MLE	HOU	68	0	71	300	68	26	11	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.8%	13.8%	3.5%	4.54	4.62	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	HOU	37	0	39	165	32	16	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.83	4.75	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	HOU	54	0	57	241	50	22	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.3%	11.4%	3.0%	4.67	4.58	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	HOU	64	0	67	283	60	25	9	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.49	+0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	HOU	69	0	72	304	65	27	9	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.0%	4.49	4.46	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	74	312	67	28	10	0%	1.1	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.49	4.50	+0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	73	308	72	26	10	0%	1.0	23.2%	8.3%	14.9%	3.2%	4.38	4.31	+0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	HOU	67	0	70	296	68	25	10	0%	1.0	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	3.3%	4.42	4.44	+0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	HOU	63	0	66	279	63	25	10	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.8%	13.8%	3.5%	4.54	4.62	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		494	0	519	2190	477	194	69	0%	1.0	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.52	4.12	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	75	27	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.2%	4.52	4.12	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		52	16	171	714	137	72	18	31%	3.3	19.2%	10.1%	9.2%	2.5%	3.84	4.15	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	19	200	835	161	84	21	31%	3.3	19.2%	10.1%	9.2%	2.5%	3.84	4.15	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Carrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	17.9%	10.6%	3.1%	—	4.61	20.5%	11.2%	244	-0.42	—	—	—
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	86
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	86
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	85
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	85
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	84
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	84
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	84
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	83
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	83
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	82
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	82
Kyle Smith R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	14.7%	8.7%	3.8%	.326	3.31	15.2%	9.5%	76	-1.74	3.31	159	82
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	82
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	81
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	76	21.3%	9.1%	1.22	4.58
Brett Cecil ('18)	3.8	76	20.7%	8.3%	1.14	4.29
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Pete Mikkelsen ('64-'72, 1 WAR*)	3.3	73	20.1%*	9.3%*	1.12*	4.15*
Paul Gibson ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.8	80	19.0%*	9.5%*	1.18*	4.37*
Chris Stratton ('25)	3.1	69	21.0%	9.5%	1.02	4.64
Bob Humphreys ('62-'70, 1 WAR*)	2.8	81	19.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.22*