Landen Payne — OGILVIE

Landen Payne P Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 226 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.34

FIP4.34

K%22.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	36	1	43	185	46	13	2	3%	1.2	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.70	3.33	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	36	1	43	185	46	13	2	3%	1.2	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.70	3.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	CWS	25	1	32	128	33	9	1	4%	1.3	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	0.8%	1.69	2.24	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	CWS	11	0	11	57	13	4	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	1.8%	5.56	3.03	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	41	0	44	184	42	16	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	18	0	19	80	18	7	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	4.24	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	79	18	7	2	0%	1.0	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	3.86	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	75	22	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.28	3.86	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		36	1	43	185	34	15	3	3%	1.2	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.70	3.33	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		166	5	200	854	159	70	12	3%	1.2	18.6%	8.2%	10.4%	1.4%	2.70	3.33	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Landen Payne (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	22.3%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.24	23.0%	14.4%	44	-0.10	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	92
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	91
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	91
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	90
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	90
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	90
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	89
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	89
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	87
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	87
Jake Bray R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.245	4.56	21.4%	10.8%	158	+1.28	2.51	198	86
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	86
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	86
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	85
Ronnie Muck R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	23	SU	3.24	22.1%	8.7%	1.7%	.316	4.63	15.0%	0.3%	75	+1.39	3.24	137	85
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	85
Cre Finfrock R 2019 · 4.63 FIP	23	SU	4.63	23.0%	11.7%	3.6%	.278	6.31	16.7%	-8.5%	36	+1.68	4.27	103	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	37	22.7%	8.7%	1.14	4.30
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79