Luis Avila

P Clearwater Threshers

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 221 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	28	37	2.17	3.23	26.8%	13.4%	—	K 19.3% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.57
2025	22	MIX2 levels	35	52	4.88	4.03	24.2%	15.6%	—	K 18.1% · BB 18.3% · FIP 5.03
2026	23	MIX2 levels	34	38	4.70	4.27	29.2%	15.5%	—	K 21.9% · BB 18.0% · FIP 5.62
2027PROJ	24	MLBPHI	54	57	5.91	5.91	19.8%	19.3%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBPHI	24	25	5.60	5.51	20.5%	16.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBPHI	36	38	5.44	5.39	20.9%	16.1%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRyan Sublette (age 24) · Taylor Floyd (age 24) · Christian Ruebeck (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%19.8%

BB%19.3%

K-BB%0.4%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	14	0	23	100	23	8	0	0%	1.6	15.6%	10.0%	5.6%	0.0%	2.35	3.05	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	14	0	23	100	23	8	0	0%	1.6	23.0%	8.0%	15.0%	0.0%	2.35	2.14	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	37	157	42	21	2	0%	1.3	19.3%	16.1%	3.2%	1.9%	2.17	4.57	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	37	157	42	21	2	0%	1.3	19.3%	16.1%	3.2%	1.9%	2.17	4.57	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	37	157	42	21	2	0%	1.3	26.8%	13.4%	13.4%	1.3%	2.17	3.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	231	56	36	4	0%	1.5	18.1%	18.3%	-0.2%	2.1%	4.88	5.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	231	56	36	4	0%	1.5	18.1%	18.3%	-0.2%	2.1%	4.88	5.03	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	52	231	56	36	4	0%	1.5	24.2%	15.6%	8.7%	1.7%	4.88	4.03	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	38	168	49	26	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	3.8%	4.70	5.62	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	38	168	49	26	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	3.8%	4.70	5.62	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	38	168	49	26	5	0%	1.1	29.2%	15.5%	13.7%	3.0%	4.70	4.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	54	0	57	241	48	46	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	19.3%	0.4%	3.0%	5.91	5.91	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	55	0	58	244	50	41	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	3.0%	5.60	5.51	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	55	0	58	244	51	39	7	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.1%	4.9%	3.0%	5.44	5.39	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	24	0	25	106	22	18	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	16.7%	3.8%	3.0%	5.60	5.51	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	36	0	38	160	34	26	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	16.1%	4.9%	3.0%	5.44	5.39	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	0	63	266	55	43	8	0%	1.1	20.8%	16.3%	4.4%	3.0%	5.50	5.06	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	136	25	0%	1.1	20.8%	16.3%	4.4%	3.0%	5.50	5.06	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		111	0	150	656	125	108	14	0%	1.4	19.0%	16.4%	2.6%	2.2%	3.77	4.77	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	0	200	873	166	143	19	0%	1.4	19.0%	16.4%	2.6%	2.2%	3.77	4.77	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	19.8%	19.3%	3.0%	—	5.45	20.7%	4.3%	116	-0.46	—	—	—
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	91
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	89
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	88
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	87
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	87
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	87
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	85
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	85
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	84
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	84
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	84
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	84
Connor Cooke R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	24	SU	5.02	17.4%	17.0%	2.2%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	2.93	103	83
Will McAffer R 2021 · 6.40 FIP	24	SU	6.40	21.5%	24.2%	3.7%	.343	5.37	14.5%	-5.7%	33	-1.03	4.68	133	83
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	83
Spencer Mraz R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	24	SU	5.62	21.5%	18.4%	3.6%	.295	4.68	15.1%	-4.2%	35	-0.94	3.61	155	83
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	82
Austin Glorius R 2017 · 6.09 FIP	24	SU	6.09	18.7%	21.0%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	141	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	20.4%	17.4%	1.16	5.65
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*