Johan Zapata — OGILVIE

Johan Zapata P DSL Brewers Blue

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 8 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%21.2%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	8	0	11	53	8	9	2	0%	1.4	10.3%	21.2%	-11.0%	5.1%	6.55	7.75	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	8	0	11	53	8	9	2	0%	1.4	15.1%	17.0%	-1.9%	3.8%	6.55	6.46	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	12	0	20	91	11	10	5	0%	1.7	8.2%	13.7%	-5.5%	7.0%	7.20	7.99	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	12	0	20	91	11	10	5	0%	1.7	8.2%	13.7%	-5.5%	7.0%	7.20	7.99	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	12	0	20	91	11	10	5	0%	1.7	12.1%	11.0%	1.1%	5.5%	7.20	6.75	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	9	0	12	68	11	8	1	0%	1.3	11.0%	14.7%	-3.7%	2.0%	10.80	5.12	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	9	0	12	68	11	8	1	0%	1.3	11.0%	14.7%	-3.7%	2.0%	10.80	5.12	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	9	0	12	68	11	8	1	0%	1.3	16.2%	11.8%	4.4%	1.5%	10.80	4.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	3.0%	4.84	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	19	0	20	84	19	9	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	10	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	4	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.18	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	81	20	0%	1.1	22.3%	10.6%	11.7%	2.9%	4.65	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		29	0	43	212	20	34	10	0%	1.5	9.6%	15.9%	-6.3%	4.9%	8.02	7.01	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	994	96	158	49	0%	1.5	9.6%	15.9%	-6.3%	4.9%	8.02	7.01	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Zapata (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	21.2%	11.8%	3.0%	—	4.56	22.3%	11.7%	20	-0.28	—	—	—
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	89
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	89
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	87
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	87
Cam Bedrosian R 2014 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	21.5%	11.8%	2.1%	.350	2.72	26.8%	17.8%	154	-1.22	1.79	363	86
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	86
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	86
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	86
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	86
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	86
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	85
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	85
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	85
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	85
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	85
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	84