Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 9.5% | 14.3% | -4.8% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 4.11 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 3 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 9.5% | 14.3% | -4.8% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 61 | 273 | 56 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.5% | 16.2% | -0.7% | 0.9% | 3.67 | 4.36 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 61 | 273 | 56 | 38 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 6.6% | 1.1% | 3.67 | 3.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 17 | 0 | 44 | 188 | 34 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 2.6 | 14.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.87 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.67 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 87 | 369 | 71 | 31 | 10 | — | — | 19.3% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.56 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.13 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 95 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 110 | 482 | 71 | 58 | 9 | 0% | 1.9 | 14.7% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 0 | 200 | 879 | 129 | 107 | 16 | 0% | 1.9 | 14.7% | 12.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Seppings (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.51 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 43 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 95 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 135 | 89 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 4.01 | 23.3% | 9.5% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.09 | 146 | 89 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.24 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 207 | +0.82 | 4.24 | 262 | 88 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 88 |
| Cole Gordon R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 88 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.84 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.90 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.06 | 3.40 | 134 | 88 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 87 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 86 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 86 |
| Todd Van Steensel R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.69 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.33 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 157 | -0.36 | 2.87 | 223 | 86 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.87 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .332 | 5.00 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.13 | 3.87 | 148 | 86 |
| Ben Hecht R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 86 |
| Cody Tucker R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.98 | 22.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | .272 | 5.11 | 15.8% | -1.9% | 40 | +0.13 | 4.98 | 105 | 86 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 86 |
| Armando Ruiz R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.98 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 113 | 86 |
| Brandon Johnson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.88 | 22.4% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.57 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 163 | -0.31 | 3.44 | 224 | 85 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 85 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.26 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .296 | 5.21 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 37 | +0.95 | 4.26 | 152 | 85 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 1.03 | 4.61 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |