Miguel Valdez — OGILVIE

Miguel Valdez P ACL Padres

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%21.1%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	19	1	40	183	44	22	4	5%	2.1	16.3%	15.0%	1.3%	2.8%	6.02	5.17	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	19	1	40	183	44	22	4	5%	2.1	24.0%	12.0%	12.0%	2.2%	6.02	3.84	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	43	195	41	21	7	0%	1.5	14.6%	13.2%	1.3%	5.4%	6.12	6.53	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	43	195	41	21	7	0%	1.5	14.6%	13.2%	1.3%	5.4%	6.12	6.53	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	43	195	41	21	7	0%	1.5	21.0%	10.8%	10.3%	3.6%	6.12	4.79	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	18	100	20	22	1	0%	1.0	14.5%	21.9%	-7.4%	1.7%	8.66	5.59	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	18	100	20	22	1	0%	1.0	14.5%	21.9%	-7.4%	1.7%	8.66	5.59	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	18	100	20	22	1	0%	1.0	20.0%	22.0%	-2.0%	1.0%	8.66	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SD	12	0	13	55	12	8	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	14.5%	6.6%	3.0%	5.19	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SD	19	0	20	84	18	11	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.97	4.89	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SD	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.97	4.89	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	5	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.97	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	117	23	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.8%	9.1%	3.0%	4.97	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		64	1	101	478	73	75	17	2%	1.6	15.2%	15.7%	-0.5%	3.7%	6.53	5.81	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	2	200	950	145	149	35	2%	1.6	15.2%	15.7%	-0.5%	3.7%	6.53	5.81	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	21.1%	14.5%	3.0%	—	4.89	21.9%	9.1%	20	-0.30	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	95
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	92
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	90
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	90
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	87
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	87
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	86
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	86
David Ellingson R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	23	SU	4.15	20.5%	14.6%	1.7%	.362	3.52	18.0%	10.2%	105	-0.63	3.43	150	86
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	86
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	86
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	86