Andrew Sears

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 24 LHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2029

Overview

AASP40-MANROOKIEFG #284Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ADET	22	19	90	2.51	3.24	26.4%	13.1%	—	K 19.6% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.25
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	22	111	3.49	3.15	26.3%	7.7%	—	K 20.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.26
2026	23	MIX5 levels	22	15	77	3.38	2.91	25.1%	8.6%	1.9	K 18.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.71
2027PROJ	24	MLBDET	23	23	131	4.47	4.63	19.4%	9.7%	0.4
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBDET	11	11	64	4.40	4.42	20.4%	9.3%	0.3
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBDET	15	15	92	4.37	4.36	20.9%	9.1%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$8M2031Arb-3$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

Whiff%61

FB Velo43

xwOBA vs40

K%10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 82%

CompsCory Luebke (age 25) · John Gast (age 24) · John Koronka (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.47

FIP4.63

K%19.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP131

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$9M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL—55

CMD3545

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p400.323

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$6M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	6.48	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers	1	0	1	5	1	2	0	0%	1.0	20.0%	40.0%	-20.0%	0.0%	0.00	7.10	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	19.6%	15.4%	4.1%	1.5%	2.51	4.25	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	19.6%	15.4%	4.1%	1.5%	2.51	4.25	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	22	19	90	382	101	50	5	86%	4.1	26.4%	13.1%	13.4%	1.3%	2.51	3.24	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	20.5%	8.8%	11.7%	3.2%	3.49	4.26	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	111	467	123	36	11	85%	4.3	26.3%	7.7%	18.6%	2.4%	3.49	3.15	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	22	15	77	327	82	28	5	68%	3.5	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.71	+1.1
2026	23	MIX MLE	5 levels	22	15	77	327	82	28	5	68%	3.5	18.9%	9.0%	9.9%	1.9%	3.38	3.71	+1.1
2026	23	MIX RAW	5 levels	22	15	77	327	82	28	5	68%	3.5	25.1%	8.6%	16.5%	1.5%	3.38	2.91	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	3	19	92	15	8	3	50%	3.2	16.3%	8.7%	7.6%	3.3%	7.11	4.84	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	DET	23	23	131	553	107	54	16	100%	5.7	19.4%	9.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.47	4.63	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	23	23	133	560	114	52	16	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.49	+0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	133	560	117	51	16	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.43	+0.7
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	22	22	131	551	116	50	16	100%	5.9	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.9%	4.45	4.46	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	21	21	127	535	112	49	16	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.50	4.54	+0.5
2032	29	MLB MLE	DET	20	20	121	511	104	48	16	100%	6.0	20.3%	9.4%	10.8%	3.2%	4.62	4.70	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	DET	19	19	114	480	94	47	16	100%	6.0	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.4%	4.79	4.91	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	DET	18	18	106	448	84	45	16	100%	5.9	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	3.6%	5.00	5.14	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	11	11	64	270	55	25	7	100%	5.8	20.4%	9.3%	11.1%	2.7%	4.40	4.42	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	15	15	92	388	81	35	11	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	2.7%	4.37	4.36	+0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	103	435	91	40	12	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.8%	4.38	4.39	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	108	456	95	42	13	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.2%	11.6%	2.9%	4.43	4.47	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	DET	18	18	107	452	92	43	14	100%	5.9	20.3%	9.4%	10.8%	3.0%	4.55	4.63	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	DET	17	17	103	435	85	42	14	100%	6.1	19.6%	9.8%	9.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.83	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	DET	16	16	97	410	77	41	14	100%	6.1	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	3.4%	4.92	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	116	693	2938	591	277	88	97%	5.8	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.24	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	848	171	80	25	97%	5.8	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.0%	4.61	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		71	56	279	1181	233	132	27	79%	3.9	19.8%	11.1%	8.6%	2.3%	3.13	4.12	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	847	167	94	20	79%	3.9	19.8%	11.1%	8.6%	2.3%	3.13	4.12	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Sears (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	19.4%	9.7%	2.8%	—	4.46	20.8%	11.6%	396	-0.17	—	—	—
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	79
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	79
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	78
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	77
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	77
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	77
Andy Oliver L 2010 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP	4.66	17.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	187	77
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	76
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	75
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.17	22.0%	15.8%	179	+0.24	2.24	312	74
J.C. Romero L 2000 · 4.58 FIP	24	SP	4.58	18.7%	11.2%	3.0%	.356	3.98	18.2%	8.4%	209	-0.60	2.88	652	74
Jeff Locke L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	24	SP-	4.51	23.0%	7.4%	4.4%	.309	4.01	17.2%	8.4%	466	-0.50	3.79	676	73
Rodney Boone L 2024 · 4.56 FIP	24	SP-	4.56	18.1%	9.8%	3.2%	.221	3.64	18.5%	10.8%	78	-0.92	3.64	311	73
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	73
Matt Portland L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	24	SP-	4.64	17.4%	11.0%	2.9%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	143	72
J.A. Happ L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	25	SP-	3.90	18.8%	9.4%	2.2%	.260	4.38	18.4%	8.3%	410	+0.48	3.37	1,890	72
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	71
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	71
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	127	20.1%	9.4%	1.18	4.63
Joe Coleman ('42-'55, 6 WAR*)	5.7	142	18.0%*	9.1%*	1.25*	4.62*
Elmer Knetzer ('09-'17, 6 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.4%*	9.7%*	1.10*	4.40*
Max Surkont ('49-'57, 5 WAR*)	6.0	149	20.0%*	8.4%*	1.27*	4.76*
Ian Snell ('10)	4.0	134	17.8%	10.4%	1.12	4.80
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Chris Tillman ('18)	5.7	114	17.3%	8.9%	1.29	4.57