Carlos Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Carlos Gonzalez P DSL Royals Ventura

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 150 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 18 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.74

FIP4.74

K%17.7%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Gold	11	0	19	96	11	9	5	0%	1.7	7.8%	11.7%	-3.9%	7.0%	6.63	7.75	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Gold	11	0	19	96	11	9	5	0%	1.7	11.5%	9.4%	2.1%	5.2%	6.63	6.78	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	2	23	100	18	8	1	17%	1.9	12.2%	10.0%	2.2%	1.1%	3.13	3.93	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	2	23	100	18	8	1	17%	1.9	12.2%	10.0%	2.2%	1.1%	3.13	3.93	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	12	2	23	100	18	8	1	17%	1.9	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	1.0%	3.13	3.14	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	12	1	26	113	18	6	3	8%	2.2	10.8%	6.6%	4.2%	4.2%	4.78	5.35	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	12	1	26	113	18	6	3	8%	2.2	10.8%	6.6%	4.2%	4.2%	4.78	5.35	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	12	1	26	113	18	6	3	8%	2.2	15.9%	5.3%	10.6%	2.7%	4.78	3.90	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	10	35	154	26	12	1	91%	3.2	11.5%	9.7%	1.7%	0.9%	6.23	3.86	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	10	35	154	26	12	1	91%	3.2	11.5%	9.7%	1.7%	0.9%	6.23	3.86	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	10	35	154	26	12	1	91%	3.2	16.9%	7.8%	9.1%	0.6%	6.23	3.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	KC	17	0	18	76	13	7	2	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	2.9%	4.74	4.74	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	KC	31	0	33	138	27	12	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	KC	15	0	16	68	13	6	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	68	13	6	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.10	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	74	25	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.5%	11.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		46	13	103	463	50	44	14	28%	2.2	10.7%	9.4%	1.3%	3.0%	5.24	5.05	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		89	25	200	899	96	85	27	28%	2.2	10.7%	9.4%	1.3%	3.0%	5.24	5.05	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	17.7%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.48	19.7%	11.1%	33	-0.26	—	—	—
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	86
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	84
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	83
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	83
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	83
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	83
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	82
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	82
Conor Harber R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	21	SW	3.93	14.3%	10.0%	1.4%	.257	4.33	16.3%	2.8%	262	+0.40	3.05	333	82
Davis Martin R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SW	3.59	16.3%	8.2%	1.5%	.317	4.71	18.9%	10.7%	233	+1.12	3.59	749	82
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	81
Dan Wheeler R 2000 · 3.82 FIP	22	SW	3.82	15.3%	8.1%	1.8%	.325	4.16	15.7%	9.7%	69	+0.34	2.77	641	81
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	81
Nolan Kingham R 2018 · 4.70 FIP	21	SW	4.70	12.1%	8.7%	2.8%	.338	4.22	13.1%	7.0%	260	-0.48	3.93	544	80
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	80
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	79
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	79
Sasagi Sanchez R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	21	SW	4.48	11.4%	9.4%	2.1%	.289	4.45	12.7%	4.0%	108	-0.03	3.48	180	79
Jose Gutierrez R 2023 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	16.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.360	4.36	15.1%	4.8%	181	+0.77	3.34	214	79
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	18.9%	8.7%	1.12	4.62
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82