Adrian Ibarra — OGILVIE

Adrian IbarraSS DSL Marlins

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .261 / .284

PA5

HR0

K%29

BB%6

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	175	161	46	10	1	1	10	37	3	9	3	286	339	379	718	93	363	21	6	323	105	+1	+1	—	—	+4	0.5
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	100	88	15	2	0	1	9	26	3	1	2	170	270	227	497	57	230	26	9	240	49	-6	-1	—	—	+2	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	175	165	37	7	1	1	6	54	3	9	3	224	264	297	561	73	308	31	3	234	45	-12	+1	—	—	+4	-0.7
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	100	91	11	1	0	1	6	37	3	1	2	121	200	165	365	44	195	37	6	167	-1	-12	-1	—	—	+2	-1.1
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	175	165	37	7	1	1	6	54	3	9	3	224	264	297	561	73	324	31	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	175	161	46	10	1	1	10	37	3	9	3	286	339	379	718	93	363	21	6	323	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	100	91	11	1	0	1	6	37	3	1	2	121	200	165	365	44	189	37	6	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	100	88	15	2	0	1	9	26	3	1	2	170	270	227	497	57	230	26	9	240	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	175	164	37	7	1	1	6	54	3	9	3	226	264	299	563	73	308	31	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	100	91	11	1	0	1	6	37	3	1	2	121	200	165	365	44	195	37	6	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	175	164	37	7	1	1	6	54	3	9	3	226	264	299	563	73	308	31	3	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	100	91	11	1	0	1	6	37	3	1	2	121	200	165	365	44	195	37	6	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		287	20	0	250	55	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	118	108	24	4	1	2	8	34	1	2	0	222	282	333	615	111	289	29	7	263	64	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	263	241	53	9	2	5	17	73	3	4	1	220	280	336	616	116	290	28	6	272	70	-9	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	367	335	74	13	2	7	25	101	4	5	1	221	283	334	617	113	291	28	7	278	75	-11	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	438	400	90	16	3	9	30	120	5	6	2	225	287	347	635	122	292	27	7	283	77	-12	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	480	438	98	17	3	10	33	131	6	7	2	224	287	345	632	121	292	27	7	285	79	-12	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	505	459	103	18	3	11	35	138	6	7	2	224	288	349	637	124	292	27	7	286	80	-12	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	516	469	106	18	3	12	36	141	6	8	2	226	290	354	644	128	292	27	7	286	80	-12	+1	+0	+6	+11	0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	519	471	105	18	3	11	37	143	6	7	2	223	288	344	632	121	292	28	7	285	79	-13	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	514	466	104	18	3	11	37	142	6	7	2	223	289	345	634	122	291	28	7	284	78	-13	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	506	459	102	17	3	11	36	141	6	6	2	222	287	344	632	122	290	28	7	281	76	-14	+0	-2	+5	+11	0.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	494	450	98	17	3	10	35	139	6	5	1	218	283	336	619	118	288	28	7	277	74	-15	+1	-3	+5	+11	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	41	38	8	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	211	268	316	584	105	281	29	7	248	64	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	127	116	25	4	1	2	8	35	2	2	1	216	278	319	597	103	282	28	6	257	70	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	199	182	40	7	1	4	13	55	2	3	1	220	279	335	614	115	283	28	7	263	75	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	243	221	48	8	1	5	17	66	3	4	1	217	282	330	612	113	284	27	7	267	77	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	269	246	54	9	2	6	18	73	3	4	1	220	281	346	626	126	284	27	7	268	79	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	284	259	57	9	2	6	20	77	3	4	1	220	284	340	623	120	284	27	7	270	80	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	285	260	57	9	2	6	20	78	3	4	1	219	283	338	621	119	284	27	7	270	80	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	285	260	56	9	2	6	20	78	3	4	1	215	279	335	614	119	284	27	7	269	79	-7	+0	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	275	250	54	9	1	6	20	76	3	4	1	216	282	332	614	116	283	28	7	268	78	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	266	242	51	8	1	5	19	74	3	3	1	211	277	314	591	103	282	28	7	265	76	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	258	235	49	8	1	5	18	73	3	3	1	209	273	315	588	106	280	28	7	262	74	-8	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2532	2309	499	81	14	52	176	697	28	36	10	216	280	331	611	115	285	28	7	266	74	-69	+3	-4	+27	+55	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	128	21	4	13	45	179	7	9	3	216	279	331	610	115	285	28	7	266	74	-18	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5000	4557	1006	173	30	101	341	1395	61	74	22	221	284	338	622	118	293	28	7	278	74	-130	+6	-7	+51	+102	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	130	22	4	13	44	181	8	10	3	220	282	336	618	117	292	28	7	278	74	-18	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#3Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#4Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.9	2,590	54	35	222	283	342	+28	+21	3.0	2.8
/162	664	14	9	+7.1	+5.4	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Ibarra (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	203/261/284	80	287	1	1	29%	6%	55	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→41	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	59	-1.7	214/277/357	143	320	16	4	36%	7%	78	-0.3	203/271/348	146	303	18	4	37%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→46	40→50	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	63	-1.3	225/292/371	146	302	16	5	30%	7%	87	+0.4	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Brandon Barnes 2006 · A	20	37→47	38→55	47→50	37	184/237/264	80	266	6	6	32%	5%	41	-3.0	182/229/258	76	281	5	7	35%	5%	36	-3.3	243/288/366	124	328	11	16	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→50	46→45	39	210/252/306	96	282	8	6	28%	5%	56	-1.9	208/243/347	139	278	17	3	31%	4%	63	-1.4	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	191/260/268	77	304	6	15	36%	7%	51	-2.2	188/266/266	78	286	5	32	33%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→50	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	52	-2.2	204/247/318	114	284	10	6	31%	5%	57	-1.8	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	40→44	42→50	45	38	202/251/306	105	274	10	6	30%	5%	56	-1.9	199/255/338	139	279	14	8	33%	6%	65	-1.2	212/267/370	158	271	20	6	29%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→40	41→45	48→50	41	200/267/299	99	282	9	10	31%	6%	61	-1.5	203/296/305	102	299	9	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	186/292/283	98	277	9	10	33%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	40	37→45	51→40	43	190/274/270	79	258	4	9	26%	6%	58	-1.7	202/252/288	86	301	6	4	33%	4%	53	-2.1	211/249/305	94	308	7	2	33%	3%	52	-1.1
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	47	-2.5	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	70	-0.8	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2011 · A	20	43	40→45	49→45	42	209/255/300	91	272	7	5	26%	6%	56	-1.9	218/253/304	86	275	8	5	23%	4%	56	-1.9	247/278/359	111	273	14	5	15%	4%	75	-0.2
✕Kenny Hart 2010 · A	20	42	38→45	48→50	41	200/273/277	77	292	5	6	31%	7%	59	-1.7	211/296/309	98	281	8	11	26%	7%	75	-0.5	199/298/306	107	253	9	15	23%	7%	75	-0.1
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	43	41→50	49→50	40	208/261/311	103	288	8	12	30%	6%	61	-1.5	196/250/277	81	270	6	10	28%	6%	49	-2.4	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Castro 2019 · A	20	38→41	43→55	47→50	36	195/235/310	115	269	11	5	32%	5%	51	-2.3	198/239/343	145	274	17	6	33%	5%	61	-1.5	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	57	-1.8	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	49	-2.4	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Stone Garrett 2016 · A	20	41→39	35→60	49→50	38	198/237/257	59	280	3	7	29%	5%	38	-3.2	171/211/255	84	305	6	8	44%	4%	29	-3.8	221/282/389	168	300	20	11	32%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Daurys Mercedes 2010 · A	20	45	37→45	49→45	42	208/268/290	82	302	3	7	30%	7%	59	-1.7	186/256/250	64	315	2	7	38%	8%	46	-2.6	145/223/189	44	275	2	6	44%	8%	18	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps