Adrian Ibarra — OGILVIE

Adrian IbarraSS DSL Marlins

Age 20 R/R 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .261 / .283

PA59

HR1

K%30

BB%6

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	175	165	37	6	1	1	6	54	3	9	3	224	264	291	555	67	324	31	3	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	175	161	46	10	1	1	10	37	3	9	3	286	339	379	718	93	363	21	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	100	91	12	1	0	1	6	37	3	1	2	132	210	176	386	44	208	37	6	169	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	100	88	15	2	0	1	9	26	3	1	2	170	270	227	497	57	230	26	9	240	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIA	—	59	54	11	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	204	271	296	567	93	287	29	7	250	49	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	118	108	24	4	1	2	8	34	1	2	0	222	282	333	615	111	289	29	7	263	59	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	263	241	53	9	2	5	17	74	3	4	1	220	280	336	616	116	290	28	6	272	66	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	367	335	74	13	2	7	25	101	4	5	1	221	283	334	617	113	291	28	7	278	71	-12	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	438	400	89	15	3	9	30	120	5	6	2	223	285	343	628	120	292	27	7	282	74	-13	+0	+0	+5	+12	0.5
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	480	438	98	17	3	10	33	131	6	7	2	224	287	345	632	121	293	27	7	284	76	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.6
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	505	459	104	18	3	11	35	138	6	7	2	227	290	351	641	124	293	27	7	286	77	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.7
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	516	469	106	18	3	12	36	142	6	8	2	226	290	354	644	128	293	28	7	286	77	-13	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.8
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	41	38	8	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	211	268	316	584	105	284	29	7	250	50	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	127	116	25	4	1	2	8	36	2	2	1	216	278	319	597	103	285	28	6	259	57	-6	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	199	182	40	7	1	4	13	55	2	3	1	220	279	335	614	115	287	28	7	265	61	-9	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.1
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	243	221	48	8	1	5	17	67	3	4	1	217	282	330	612	113	288	28	7	269	64	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.0
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	269	246	55	9	2	6	18	74	3	4	1	224	285	350	634	126	288	28	7	271	66	-10	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2032	26	MLB	MIA	56%	284	259	58	10	2	6	20	78	3	4	1	224	287	347	635	124	288	27	7	273	67	-11	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2033	27	MLB	MIA	55%	285	260	58	10	2	6	20	78	3	4	1	223	286	346	632	123	288	27	7	273	67	-11	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1448	1322	292	49	9	30	99	400	16	22	6	221	283	340	623	119	292	28	7	269	64	-59	+2	+0	+16	+41	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	131	22	4	13	44	180	7	10	3	221	282	337	619	116	293	28	7	269	64	-26	+1	+0	+7	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	3021	2760	608	103	18	59	200	848	38	50	15	220	282	335	617	114	294	28	7	275	68	-108	+4	+0	+32	+86	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	131	22	4	13	43	182	8	11	3	221	282	337	619	116	294	28	7	275	68	-23	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	175	161	46	10	1	1	10	37	3	9	3	286	339	379	718	93	363	21	6	323	105	+1	+1	—	—	+5	0.7
2024	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	100	88	15	2	0	1	9	26	3	1	2	170	270	227	497	57	230	26	9	240	42	-7	-1	—	—	+3	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,507	31	22	223	283	341	+16	+15	1.5	1.6
	/162	664	14	10	223	283	341	+7.1	+6.6	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Ibarra (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	203/261/283	80	287	1	1	30%	6%	49	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Brandon Barnes 2006 · A	20	37→47	38→55	47→50	37	184/237/264	80	266	6	6	32%	5%	33	-2.9	182/229/258	76	281	5	7	35%	5%	28	-3.2	236/281/354	118	320	11	16	29%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→55	46→40	39	210/252/306	96	282	8	6	28%	5%	50	-1.7	208/243/347	139	281	18	3	32%	4%	59	-1.1	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Rodolfo Castro 2019 · A	20	38→40	43→55	47→50	36	194/233/304	111	269	10	5	32%	4%	42	-2.3	197/238/344	147	275	17	6	34%	5%	56	-1.3	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Wendell Rijo 2016 · A	20	42→41	42→55	49→50	40	204/258/310	106	288	8	12	31%	6%	55	-1.4	194/248/276	82	270	6	10	29%	6%	41	-2.3	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	40	37→45	51→40	43	190/274/270	79	258	4	9	26%	6%	53	-1.5	203/253/290	87	301	6	4	33%	4%	47	-1.9	213/250/309	96	311	7	2	33%	3%	47	-1.0
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→46	42→50	45	38	202/252/305	103	275	9	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	201/256/343	142	286	15	8	34%	6%	63	-0.9	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Stone Garrett 2016 · A	20	41→37	35→55	49→50	38	198/237/257	59	280	3	7	29%	5%	30	-3.1	166/207/247	81	303	6	8	45%	4%	16	-4.1	219/280/389	170	298	21	11	33%	7%	83	+0.4
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Kenny Hart 2010 · A	20	42	38→45	48→50	41	200/273/277	77	292	5	6	31%	7%	53	-1.5	211/296/309	98	281	8	11	26%	7%	72	-0.2	199/298/306	107	253	9	15	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Wilmer Dominguez 2011 · A	20	43	40→45	49→45	42	209/255/300	91	272	7	5	26%	6%	50	-1.7	218/253/304	86	275	8	5	23%	4%	50	-1.7	247/278/359	111	273	14	5	15%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	40	37→55	50→45	41	186/263/256	70	295	4	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	196/264/293	97	301	10	5	36%	6%	54	-1.4	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	51	-1.7	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	42	-2.3	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	-1	-1.2
✕Michael Almanzar 2011 · A	20	38→48	37→50	46→45	36	188/227/261	73	262	5	4	30%	4%	28	-3.2	203/241/299	96	270	9	6	28%	4%	44	-2.1	233/278/363	131	287	14	8	24%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Jose Bellorin 2011 · A	20	42	39→40	47→50	42	203/257/285	81	265	6	10	25%	6%	47	-1.9	223/280/308	85	271	6	9	19%	6%	63	-0.8	239/295/316	78	276	6	10	15%	6%	69	-0.2