Emisael Carrera prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Emisael Carrera P DSL Cardinals

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%22.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	15	0	22	94	19	11	0	0%	1.4	13.7%	14.6%	-0.9%	0.0%	2.08	3.79	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	15	0	22	94	19	11	0	0%	1.4	13.7%	14.6%	-0.9%	0.0%	2.08	3.79	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	15	0	22	94	19	11	0	0%	1.4	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	0.0%	2.08	2.87	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	1	0%	0.8	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	8.3%	21.60	9.43	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	1	0%	0.8	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	8.3%	21.60	9.43	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	2	0	2	12	2	3	1	0%	0.8	16.7%	25.0%	-8.3%	8.3%	21.60	13.90	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.8%	10.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.53	4.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	STL	19	0	20	84	20	8	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.37	+0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	STL	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.42	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.42	3.99	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.9%	13.4%	2.9%	4.42	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		17	0	23	106	15	17	1	0%	1.4	14.1%	15.8%	-1.7%	0.9%	3.47	4.43	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	0	200	909	128	144	9	0%	1.4	14.1%	15.8%	-1.7%	0.9%	3.47	4.43	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emisael Carrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	22.8%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.37	23.3%	13.4%	20	-0.16	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	88
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	87
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	87
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	87
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	87
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	87
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	86
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	85
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	85
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	85
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	85
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	84
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	84
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.43	249	84
Felix Castro R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	19	SU	3.52	24.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.295	4.94	14.9%	-1.8%	97	+1.42	3.52	144	84
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	84
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	84
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	84
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	84