Luis Guevara — OGILVIE

Luis GuevaraSS Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 S/R 5'8" / 167 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 97 proj PA

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .290 / .295

PA97

HR1

K%26

BB%9

ISO84

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED68

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$10M		$34M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	141	32	5	1	0	16	39	2	16	5	227	314	277	591	50	311	24	10	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	129	41	6	1	0	28	24	2	16	5	318	447	380	826	62	387	15	18	382	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	122	25	5	0	0	16	31	3	20	1	205	312	246	558	41	266	22	11	254	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	110	30	5	0	0	28	21	3	20	1	273	433	318	751	45	326	15	19	353	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	76	17	1	2	0	8	26	4	6	2	224	330	289	619	66	327	29	9	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	70	17	1	2	0	13	18	4	6	2	243	386	314	701	71	315	20	14	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	BAL	—	97	88	19	3	1	1	8	25	1	2	1	216	289	307	595	91	288	26	8	271	66	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	BAL	34%	202	179	40	7	1	3	18	52	3	5	1	223	305	324	629	101	290	26	9	282	74	-6	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.3
2028	22	MLB	BAL	48%	327	291	64	11	2	5	29	82	4	9	2	220	299	323	622	103	291	25	9	289	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.6
2029	23	MLB	BAL	54%	411	367	83	15	3	7	36	102	5	12	2	226	304	341	645	114	292	25	9	294	83	-8	+2	+0	+4	+12	1.0
2030	24	MLB	BAL	55%	467	416	96	17	3	9	42	115	6	13	3	231	310	351	661	120	293	25	9	297	85	-8	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.2
2031	25	MLB	BAL	56%	499	444	102	18	3	10	45	123	7	14	3	230	310	351	662	122	293	25	9	298	86	-8	+2	+0	+5	+14	1.4
2032	26	MLB	BAL	56%	517	459	106	19	3	10	46	127	7	15	3	231	311	351	661	120	293	25	9	299	87	-8	+2	+0	+6	+15	1.4
2033	27	MLB	BAL	55%	524	464	106	19	3	10	48	129	7	15	3	228	310	347	657	119	293	25	9	299	87	-8	+2	+0	+6	+15	1.5
2034	28	MLB	BAL	55%	523	463	106	19	3	10	48	130	7	15	3	229	311	348	659	119	292	25	9	298	86	-8	+2	-1	+6	+15	1.4
2035	29	MLB	BAL	53%	516	456	104	18	3	10	48	129	7	14	3	228	311	346	658	118	292	25	9	296	85	-9	+2	-1	+6	+15	1.2
2036	30	MLB	BAL	53%	507	448	101	18	3	9	47	128	7	13	3	225	309	339	648	114	291	25	9	294	83	-10	+1	-2	+5	+14	0.9
2037	31	MLB	BAL	52%	495	440	98	17	3	9	46	126	6	13	3	223	305	336	641	114	289	25	9	290	80	-11	+1	-3	+5	+14	0.7
2027	21	MLB	BAL	34%	69	62	13	2	0	1	6	18	1	2	0	210	290	290	580	81	294	26	9	276	69	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	22	MLB	BAL	48%	158	141	33	6	1	3	14	40	2	4	1	234	312	355	667	121	295	25	9	283	75	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	23	MLB	BAL	54%	223	198	45	8	1	4	20	55	3	6	1	227	308	338	646	111	296	25	9	288	79	-5	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.4
2030	24	MLB	BAL	55%	259	231	54	10	2	5	23	64	3	7	2	234	311	359	671	126	297	25	9	291	81	-6	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.5
2031	25	MLB	BAL	56%	279	248	58	10	2	6	25	69	4	8	2	234	314	363	677	129	297	25	9	292	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.6
2032	26	MLB	BAL	56%	291	259	61	11	2	6	26	72	4	8	2	236	315	363	678	127	297	25	9	293	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.6
2033	27	MLB	BAL	55%	290	258	61	11	2	6	26	72	4	8	2	236	316	364	680	128	297	25	9	293	82	-6	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.6
2034	28	MLB	BAL	55%	287	255	60	11	2	6	26	71	4	8	2	235	316	365	680	129	297	25	9	292	82	-6	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.6
2035	29	MLB	BAL	53%	276	245	56	10	2	5	25	69	4	8	2	229	310	347	657	118	296	25	9	290	80	-6	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.5
2036	30	MLB	BAL	53%	267	236	55	10	2	5	25	67	4	7	1	233	317	356	673	123	295	25	9	288	78	-7	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.4
2037	31	MLB	BAL	52%	258	229	52	9	2	5	24	66	3	7	1	227	309	349	658	122	293	26	9	284	75	-7	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2657	2362	548	98	18	52	240	663	36	73	16	232	312	355	667	123	299	25	9	289	80	-61	+8	-4	+28	+75	4.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	134	24	4	13	59	162	9	18	4	232	313	355	667	123	299	25	9	289	80	-15	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.2
Career	—			—	5480	4854	1099	192	34	93	501	1364	76	182	38	226	309	337	646	111	293	25	9	292	82	-112	+21	-7	+59	+155	11.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	131	23	4	11	59	162	9	22	5	227	309	339	648	111	295	25	9	292	82	-13	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	129	41	6	1	28	24	2	16	5	318	447	380	826	62	387	15	18	382	150	+9	+1	—	—	+5	1.5
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	110	30	5	0	28	21	3	20	1	273	433	318	751	45	326	15	19	353	128	+5	+4	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	70	17	1	2	13	18	4	6	2	243	386	314	701	71	315	20	14	321	104	+0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,754	50	77	228	305	344	+30	+21	6.4	5.7
	/162	664	12	19	228	305	344	+7.1	+5.1	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Guevara (OGILVIE)	20	46→51	28→33	63→68	62	212/290/295	83	288	1	2	26%	9%	66	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→38	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	69	-0.4	201/272/280	79	302	2	16	31%	8%	53	-1.5	212/285/292	79	328	2	26	33%	8%	59	-0.5
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→54	37→40	56→65	55	219/317/294	75	290	3	19	23%	11%	77	+0.1	188/270/271	83	290	6	10	34%	10%	50	-1.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
✕Carlos Willoughby 2009 · A	20	49→42	34→40	59→60	50	223/307/278	55	297	1	25	23%	9%	68	-0.5	226/305/299	73	287	2	26	20%	8%	72	-0.2	217/294/290	74	272	2	27	19%	8%	62	-0.6
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	62	-0.9	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	69	-0.4	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	78	+0.1
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	83	+0.6	207/274/300	93	331	6	26	36%	7%	59	-1.1	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	44→54	40→45	57→55	44	209/274/306	96	292	6	21	29%	8%	60	-1.0	250/307/354	104	326	7	26	24%	7%	86	+0.8	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
●Billy Hamilton 2011 · A	20	44→54	37→40	62→70	39	207/251/284	77	292	3	28	29%	5%	43	-2.2	238/289/310	72	334	2	63	27%	7%	66	-0.6	249/300/336	88	321	4	80	22%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Cole Miles 2007 · A	20	49→51	37→30	57→55	51	228/306/304	77	292	4	19	22%	9%	74	-0.1	235/283/294	59	292	3	15	19%	6%	59	-1.1	236/280/289	53	293	3	15	19%	5%	53	-1.1
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	75	-0.0	224/270/287	63	290	2	11	22%	4%	53	-1.5	270/323/338	69	342	4	10	21%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Jose Acosta 2021 · A	21	49	39→45	58→55	46	230/295/326	96	310	5	19	26%	8%	74	-0.1	195/251/312	117	306	12	15	38%	6%	53	-1.5	159/216/275	116	235	13	19	37%	6%	25	-1.2
✕Alen Hanson 2012 · A	19	46→51	39→50	58→60	44	218/271/315	96	273	4	19	21%	6%	61	-1.0	232/280/372	140	293	11	20	24%	6%	79	+0.3	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	50→58	38→45	58→60	49	232/294/325	93	280	3	14	18%	7%	73	-0.1	235/293/308	73	293	3	19	19%	6%	68	-0.5	259/317/353	94	332	5	34	22%	7%	85	+0.4
✕Wilmer Difo 2012 · A	20	44→54	36→45	57→55	49	205/268/277	72	249	2	21	18%	7%	50	-1.8	220/279/308	88	270	6	20	20%	7%	63	-0.9	251/290/357	106	305	8	26	20%	4%	76	+0.1
✕Geraldo Quintero 2023 · A	21	46→50	41→40	56→60	46	222/287/330	108	287	6	20	24%	7%	72	-0.2	217/282/308	91	288	7	26	25%	7%	65	-0.7	206/276/294	89	271	8	32	26%	7%	55	-0.9
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2012 · A	20	45	36→40	56→55	51	210/281/283	74	266	2	20	21%	8%	57	-1.2	217/294/314	97	274	7	13	22%	9%	72	-0.2	222/296/309	88	278	8	11	22%	8%	66	-0.2
✕Nasim Nuñez 2021 · A	20	41→49	35→30	57→65	47	191/265/249	58	276	2	20	30%	9%	42	-2.3	209/294/259	50	308	2	38	29%	10%	57	-1.2	210/286/268	58	278	5	56	25%	9%	54	-1.0
✕Ryan Brett 2012 · A	20	48→58	40→45	57→60	47	227/276/330	103	266	5	18	16%	6%	66	-0.6	250/293/351	101	309	7	26	20%	5%	79	+0.3	263/305/369	105	324	8	30	20%	5%	85	+0.5
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→49	37→45	60→50	41	210/271/293	83	300	4	18	30%	6%	56	-1.3	213/257/291	78	286	5	11	26%	4%	49	-1.8	254/306/422	168	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.7