Luis Guevara — OGILVIE

Luis GuevaraSS Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 S/R 5'8" / 167 lbs A HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 97 proj PA

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .292 / .295

PA8

HR0

K%26

BB%9

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED68

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	129	41	6	1	0	28	24	2	16	5	318	447	380	826	62	387	15	18	382	145	+8	+1	—	—	+3	1.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	110	30	5	0	0	28	21	3	20	1	273	433	318	751	45	326	15	19	353	125	+4	+4	—	—	+3	1.1
2025	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	70	17	1	2	0	13	18	4	6	2	243	386	314	701	71	315	20	14	321	103	+0	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	141	34	5	1	0	16	37	2	16	5	241	327	291	618	50	313	23	10	276	73	-5	+1	—	—	+3	-0.0
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	121	25	4	0	0	17	31	3	20	1	207	319	240	559	33	261	22	12	263	64	-6	+4	—	—	+3	0.1
2025	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	76	17	1	2	0	8	26	4	6	2	224	330	289	619	66	309	29	9	280	76	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	141	34	5	1	0	16	37	2	16	5	241	327	291	618	50	324	23	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	129	41	6	1	0	28	24	2	16	5	318	447	380	826	62	387	15	18	382	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	121	25	4	0	0	17	31	3	20	1	207	319	240	559	33	269	22	12	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	110	30	5	0	0	28	21	3	20	1	273	433	318	751	45	326	15	19	353	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	76	17	1	2	0	8	26	4	6	2	224	330	289	619	66	327	29	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	70	17	1	2	0	13	18	4	6	2	243	386	314	701	71	315	20	14	321	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	141	34	5	1	0	16	37	2	16	5	241	327	291	618	50	313	23	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	123	25	4	0	0	17	31	3	20	1	203	319	236	555	33	261	22	12	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	79	17	1	2	0	8	26	4	6	2	215	330	278	608	63	309	29	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	160	141	34	5	1	0	16	37	2	16	5	241	327	291	618	50	313	23	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	—	144	123	25	4	0	0	17	31	3	20	1	203	319	236	555	33	261	22	12	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	91	79	17	1	2	0	8	26	4	6	2	215	330	278	608	63	309	29	9	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		288	25	12	272	70	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	34%	202	179	40	7	1	3	18	51	3	5	1	223	305	324	629	101	290	25	9	283	78	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	327	291	65	11	2	5	29	81	4	9	2	223	302	326	629	103	291	25	9	290	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	411	365	84	15	3	7	37	101	6	12	2	230	311	345	656	115	292	25	9	295	86	-7	+2	+0	+4	+9	0.8
2030	24	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	467	416	96	17	3	9	42	114	6	13	3	231	310	351	661	120	293	24	9	298	88	-7	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	499	444	102	18	3	10	45	122	7	14	3	230	310	351	662	122	293	24	9	299	88	-7	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	517	458	105	18	3	10	47	126	7	15	3	229	311	347	658	118	293	24	9	299	89	-7	+2	+0	+6	+11	1.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	524	464	107	19	3	10	48	128	7	15	3	231	312	349	661	119	293	24	9	300	89	-7	+2	+0	+6	+11	1.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	BAL	55%	523	462	105	18	3	10	49	129	7	15	3	227	311	344	655	117	292	25	9	299	88	-7	+2	-1	+6	+11	1.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	516	456	104	18	3	10	48	128	7	14	3	228	311	346	658	118	292	25	9	297	87	-8	+2	-1	+6	+11	0.9
2036	30	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	507	448	101	17	3	9	47	127	7	13	3	225	309	337	646	112	291	25	9	294	85	-9	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.7
2037	31	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	495	439	98	17	3	9	46	125	7	13	3	223	307	337	644	114	289	25	9	290	83	-10	+1	-3	+5	+11	0.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	477	424	93	16	3	8	44	123	6	12	2	219	302	328	630	108	286	26	9	285	79	-12	+2	-4	+5	+10	0.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	BAL	59%	448	397	86	14	3	7	42	118	6	10	2	217	301	320	621	103	282	26	9	279	75	-13	+1	-4	+5	+10	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	34%	69	62	13	2	0	1	6	17	1	2	0	210	290	290	580	81	294	25	9	277	78	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	158	141	33	6	1	3	14	39	2	4	1	234	312	355	667	121	295	25	9	284	83	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	223	198	45	8	1	4	20	55	3	6	1	227	308	338	646	111	296	25	9	289	86	-4	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	259	231	54	10	2	5	23	63	3	7	2	234	311	359	671	126	297	24	9	292	88	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	279	248	58	10	2	6	25	68	4	8	2	234	314	363	677	129	297	24	9	293	88	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	291	259	61	11	2	6	26	71	4	8	2	236	315	363	678	127	297	24	9	294	89	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	290	257	61	11	2	6	27	71	4	8	2	237	319	366	685	128	297	24	9	294	89	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	BAL	55%	287	254	59	10	2	6	27	71	4	8	2	232	316	358	674	126	296	25	9	293	88	-4	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	276	244	56	10	2	5	26	68	4	8	2	230	314	348	662	119	296	25	9	291	87	-4	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	267	236	54	9	2	5	25	67	4	7	1	229	313	347	661	119	295	25	9	289	85	-5	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	258	229	51	9	1	5	24	65	3	7	1	223	305	336	641	114	293	25	9	285	83	-5	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2038	32	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	268	238	53	9	1	5	25	69	3	7	1	223	305	332	636	109	290	26	9	280	79	-7	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2039	33	MLB CTX	BAL	59%	264	235	50	8	1	4	24	69	3	6	1	213	294	306	600	94	286	26	9	273	75	-8	+1	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3189	2832	648	113	19	61	292	793	42	86	18	229	310	347	657	118	295	25	9	288	84	-57	+10	-8	+34	+69	4.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	132	23	4	12	60	162	9	18	4	229	311	345	656	116	296	25	9	288	84	-12	+2	-2	+7	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	6316	5588	1263	215	39	107	584	1569	89	202	41	226	309	336	645	110	293	25	9	292	84	-107	+19	-15	+63	+128	9.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	130	22	4	11	60	161	9	21	4	226	309	336	645	110	292	25	9	292	84	-12	+2	-2	+7	+14	1.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.9	3,286	58	90	226	305	340	+35	+24	7.5	6.5
/162	664	12	18	+7.1	+4.8	1.5	pk7: 5
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Guevara (OGILVIE)	20	46→51	28→33	63→68	63	212/292/295	82	288	1	2	26%	9%	70	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Roberto Caro 2015 · A	21	45→41	38→40	63→60	49	212/292/308	96	281	3	21	24%	9%	72	-0.7	202/272/280	78	301	2	16	31%	8%	58	-1.7	215/287/293	78	329	2	26	32%	8%	65	-0.6
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→54	37→40	56→65	54	218/314/294	76	289	3	19	23%	10%	78	-0.3	190/273/272	82	291	5	10	33%	10%	57	-1.8	241/356/333	92	321	9	44	24%	14%	102	+1.0
✕Carlos Willoughby 2009 · A	20	49→44	34→40	59→60	50	223/307/278	55	297	1	25	23%	9%	72	-0.7	227/306/300	73	289	2	26	20%	8%	76	-0.4	220/296/291	72	277	1	27	19%	8%	67	-0.6
✕Junior Valera 2014 · A	21	47	36→40	58→60	48	218/284/296	79	282	1	19	22%	8%	66	-1.1	228/289/317	89	300	4	16	23%	8%	72	-0.7	245/306/339	94	314	6	23	22%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	85	+0.2	205/272/294	89	330	6	26	36%	7%	61	-1.5	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	45→55	40→45	57→55	45	213/279/311	99	296	6	21	29%	8%	68	-1.0	250/308/354	104	323	7	26	23%	7%	88	+0.4	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Cole Miles 2007 · A	20	49→51	37→30	57→55	51	228/306/304	77	292	4	19	22%	9%	77	-0.3	235/283/294	59	292	3	15	19%	6%	64	-1.3	236/280/289	53	293	3	15	19%	5%	59	-1.2
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→40	40→45	57→60	43	221/278/318	97	302	7	17	28%	7%	69	-0.9	212/274/310	98	290	7	22	27%	7%	65	-1.2	203/265/310	108	257	10	33	24%	7%	60	-0.9
✕Wilmer Difo 2012 · A	20	44→54	36→45	57→55	49	205/268/277	72	249	2	21	18%	7%	55	-1.9	221/279/308	87	272	6	20	20%	7%	67	-1.1	251/291/356	104	304	7	26	19%	4%	79	-0.2
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2019 · A	20	50→58	38→45	58→60	49	232/294/325	93	280	3	14	18%	7%	76	-0.4	234/293/308	74	292	3	19	19%	6%	72	-0.7	260/317/349	89	329	5	34	21%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	40→49	38→45	59→55	46	192/267/282	90	275	4	17	30%	8%	57	-1.8	216/291/301	85	288	6	17	25%	9%	70	-0.8	228/317/324	96	297	8	17	24%	11%	83	+0.0
✕Kevin Encarnacion 2012 · A	20	45	36→40	56→55	51	210/281/283	74	266	2	20	21%	8%	62	-1.4	218/295/315	97	275	7	13	22%	9%	75	-0.5	227/301/318	90	284	8	11	22%	8%	74	-0.2
✕Davis Bradshaw 2019 · A	21	52	37→40	59→50	45	244/300/322	78	309	3	20	21%	6%	78	-0.3	225/271/287	62	293	2	11	23%	4%	59	-1.7	271/324/338	67	344	3	10	21%	5%	87	+0.2
✕Jose Acosta 2021 · A	21	49	39→45	58→55	46	230/295/326	96	310	5	19	26%	8%	77	-0.3	196/252/310	114	307	11	15	38%	6%	58	-1.7	164/219/277	113	241	12	19	36%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Alen Hanson 2012 · A	19	46→52	39→50	58→60	44	218/271/315	96	273	4	19	21%	6%	65	-1.2	236/283/372	136	299	10	20	23%	6%	83	+0.1	239/283/383	143	299	11	21	23%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	50→52	39→40	54→50	56	234/323/325	91	290	6	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	239/315/327	88	307	7	14	23%	8%	86	+0.3	239/316/323	84	307	7	14	23%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Yonny Hernández 2018 · A	20	46→56	34→30	54→60	54	211/290/266	56	248	1	20	15%	9%	62	-1.4	233/312/287	54	296	1	25	20%	9%	75	-0.5	265/327/322	57	316	2	17	16%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→55	37→40	56→55	45	223/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	203/262/257	54	276	1	18	25%	7%	49	-2.4	246/309/315	68	310	3	11	20%	7%	76	-0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps