Luis Guevara

SS Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 21 S/R 5'8" / 167 lbs A HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1004ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202317ROKDSL Orioles O…160.318/.447/.38001663—.210/.314/.254
202418ROKDSL Orioles O…144.273/.433/.31802055—.185/.312/.218
202519ABAL91.243/.386/.3140688—.240/.352/.307
2027PROJMLE21MLBBAL201.211/.289/.29526670.0
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBBAL33.219/.296/.31601720.0
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBBAL84.223/.300/.32913770.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 A
Speed92
wRC+73
BB%72
Chase%71
K%70
Z-Con%68
CompsMichael Beltre (age 21) · Nomar Fana (age 21) · Jon Matthews (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj PA
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .286 / .292
PA47
HR0
K%27
BB%8
ISO83
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +1.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.40.40.30.20.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.5M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.3$0.7M+$0.2M
2035Arb-1$1M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-2$1M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-3$0.6M———
Totals $3M $3M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Orioles Orange — 160129 41610 28242 165 318447380826 62387 1518 382 63 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Orioles Orange — 144110 30500 28213 201 273433318751 45326 1519 353 55 — — — — — —
202519 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 9170 17120 13184 62 243386314701 71315 2014 321 88 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 160138 29410 19312 165 210314254568 43266 1912 262 63 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 144119 22400 19263 201 185312218531 34219 1813 250 55 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 9175 18120 9254 62 240352307659 67322 2710 298 88 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 160138 29410 19312 165 210314254568 43269 1912 262 63 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Orange — 160129 41610 28242 165 318447380826 62387 1518 382 63 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 144119 22400 19263 201 185312218531 34229 1813 250 55 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Orange — 144110 30500 28213 201 273433318751 45326 1519 353 55 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 9175 18120 9254 62 240352307659 67346 2710 298 88 — — — — — —
202519 A RAWDelmarva Shorebirds — 9170 17120 13184 62 243386314701 71315 2014 321 88 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 160138 29410 19312 165 210314254568 43266 1912 262 63 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 144121 22400 19263 201 182312215527 33219 1813 250 55 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 9178 18120 9254 62 231352295647 64322 2710 298 88 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 144121 22400 19263 201 182312215527 33219 1813 250 55 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 9178 18120 9254 62 231352295647 64322 2710 298 88 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEBAL 0% 201179 38622 17543 61 211289295583 83287 278 268 67 -8 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEBAL 34% 9788 19311 8261 31 216293310603 94288 278 275 72 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 0.0
202923 MLB MLEBAL 48% 174155 34513 15452 61 220297322619 103289 269 281 77 -5 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.2
203024 MLB MLEBAL 53% 260232 51824 22674 91 223300333632 110291 268 287 80 -6 +1 +0 +3 +6 0.4
203125 MLB MLEBAL 55% 325290 651036 28834 112 225302341642 116291 269 290 83 -7 +1 +0 +3 +7 0.5
203226 MLB MLEBAL 56% 366327 741237 31935 122 226303347650 120291 258 293 85 -7 +2 +0 +4 +8 0.7
203327 MLB MLEBAL 55% 385344 781238 33985 132 225302344646 119290 259 292 84 -7 +2 +0 +4 +8 0.7
203428 MLB MLEBAL 55% 392351 791337 331015 132 224300340640 116290 268 289 82 -8 +2 -1 +4 +8 0.6
203529 MLB MLEBAL 53% 387346 771237 331015 122 221298334631 112288 269 286 80 -9 +2 -1 +4 +8 0.3
203630 MLB MLEBAL 53% 380340 751237 321005 122 219294327621 108287 268 282 77 -11 +2 -2 +4 +8 0.1
203731 MLB MLEBAL 52% 365328 711136 30984 112 215289317607 103284 278 276 73 -12 +1 -3 +4 +8 -0.1
202822 MLB CTXBAL 34% 3330 6100 390 10 219296316612 97292 279 279 72 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.0
202923 MLB CTXBAL 48% 8476 17311 7221 30 223300329628 106293 268 285 77 -2 +1 +0 +1 +2 0.1
203024 MLB CTXBAL 53% 137122 27412 12352 51 226303340642 113295 269 291 80 -3 +1 +0 +1 +3 0.2
203125 MLB CTXBAL 55% 178159 36613 15462 61 228305348653 120295 268 295 83 -4 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.3
203226 MLB CTXBAL 56% 204182 42724 17523 71 230306355661 124295 258 298 85 -4 +1 +0 +2 +4 0.4
203327 MLB CTXBAL 55% 212189 43724 18543 71 229305352657 123294 258 296 84 -4 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.4
203428 MLB CTXBAL 55% 214191 44724 18553 71 227303347651 120294 268 294 82 -5 +1 -0 +2 +5 0.3
203529 MLB CTXBAL 53% 206184 42724 17543 61 225301341642 116292 268 290 80 -5 +1 -1 +2 +4 0.2
203630 MLB CTXBAL 53% 200179 39614 17532 61 222297334631 112291 268 286 77 -6 +1 -1 +2 +4 0.1
203731 MLB CTXBAL 52% 190170 37613 16512 61 218292324616 106288 278 280 73 -6 +1 -1 +2 +4 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 16581482 333541329 14043121 548 225301337638 113295 268 291 78 -39 +8 -4 +18 +36 1.9
/ 162G— A+C — 650581 13021511 551698 213 224300334634 110295 268 291 78 -15 +3 -1 +7 +14 0.7
Career— MLE — 35733175 7001082856 31690750 14525 220301325626 105288 259 284 78 -77 +14 -7 +34 +69 3.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650578 12720510 571659 265 220300324623 104287 259 284 78 -16 +3 -1 +7 +14 0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 91 PAwOBA .321 → .298 (−22)K% 19.8% → 27.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.78%÷0.993×1.360——27.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.29%÷1.007×0.690—×1.04510.23%
HBP% /PA4.40%—×0.780—×1.0453.58%
Singles /BIP26.92%÷0.998×0.920×1.050×1.04527.24%
Doubles /BIP1.92%÷0.898×0.830×1.050×1.0451.95%
Triples /BIP3.85%÷0.904×0.910×1.050×1.0454.25%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.899×0.800—×1.0450.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 80, 3B 81, K 99, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .321 → .298; ISO .071 → .080; BABIP .315 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 144 PAwOBA .353 → .250 (−103)K% 14.6% → 18.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.58%÷0.981×1.220——18.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.44%÷1.041×0.700—×1.00813.18%
HBP% /PA2.08%—×0.700—×1.0081.47%
Singles /BIP28.09%÷1.082×0.680×1.050×1.00818.68%
Doubles /BIP5.62%÷0.924×0.600×1.050×1.0083.86%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600×1.050×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.992×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .353 → .250; ISO .045 → .034; BABIP .326 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 160 PAwOBA .376 → .262 (−113)K% 15.0% → 19.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.00%÷0.941×1.220——19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.50%÷1.049×0.700—×1.02211.94%
HBP% /PA1.25%—×0.700—×1.0220.89%
Singles /BIP32.38%÷1.051×0.680×1.050×1.02222.50%
Doubles /BIP5.71%÷0.991×0.600×1.050×1.0223.71%
Triples /BIP0.95%÷1.018×0.600×1.050×1.0220.60%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.847×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 104, K 88, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .376 → .262; ISO .062 → .041; BABIP .387 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).