Elian Soto

OF Fredericksburg Nationals
Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKWSH146.175/.352/.2280014—.114/.248/.154
202519ROKWSH179.139/.307/.264421—.083/.201/.141
202620A/ROKWSH222.262/.392/.4325472—.201/.302/.315
2027PROJMLE21MLBWSH332.187/.277/.2764560-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBWSH60.192/.283/.2921166-0.1
Next 2 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
BB%78
wOBA68
wRC+68
Chase%61
Speed60
ISO53
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%
CompsAaron Shipman (age 21) · Rudy van Heydoorn (age 21) · Omar Martinez (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 129 proj PA
wRC+†60
AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .275 / .273
PA129
HR2
K%29
BB%10
ISO89
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +2.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.3-0.12728
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT20
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE60
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Nationals — 11499 18500 13441 03 182283232516 51321 3911 246 -8 — — — — — —
202418 ROKFCL Nationals — 146114 20410 27514 00 175352228580 53312 3518 288 14 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Nationals — 179144 20604 30595 22 139307264571 125198 3317 278 1 — — — — — —
202620 AFredericksburg Nationals — 183153 40823 29571 41 261383399781 137398 3116 356 69 — — — — — —
202620 ROKFCL Nationals — 3930 8402 8101 00 2674366001.036 333333 2621 447 88 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 114102 11300 10521 03 108195137332 29207 469 156 -8 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146123 14310 18744 00 114248154403 41255 5112 189 14 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 179156 13302 18855 22 83201141342 58157 4710 169 1 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEFredericksburg Nationals — 183161 33622 21781 41 205301304605 99373 4311 270 69 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 3933 6301 5141 00 182308364671 182244 3613 298 88 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 114102 11300 10521 03 108195137332 29216 469 156 -8 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Nationals — 11499 18500 13441 03 182283232516 51321 3911 246 -8 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146123 14310 18744 00 114248154403 41280 5112 189 14 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWFCL Nationals — 146114 20410 27514 00 175352228580 53312 3518 288 14 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 179156 13302 18855 22 83201141342 58159 4710 169 1 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWFCL Nationals — 179144 20604 30595 22 139307264571 125198 3317 278 1 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 222194 39924 26922 41 201302330632 129357 4112 275 72 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 222183 481225 37672 41 262392432824 169387 3017 372 72 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Nationals — 114102 11300 10521 03 108195137332 29207 469 156 -8 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146123 14310 18744 00 114248154403 41255 5112 189 14 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 179154 13302 18855 22 84201143344 58157 4710 169 1 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 222192 39924 26922 41 203302333635 130350 4112 275 72 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 146123 14310 18744 00 114248154403 41255 5112 189 14 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Nationals — 179154 13302 18855 22 84201143344 58157 4710 169 1 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 222192 39924 26922 41 203302333635 130350 4112 275 72 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEWSH 0% 332293 551124 33983 51 187277276553 89262 3010 256 60 -16 +1 +0 -2 +7 -0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEWSH 34% 174153 30613 17502 31 193283293576 101265 2910 265 66 -7 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.4
202822 MLB CTXWSH 34% 6053 10201 6171 10 192283292574 99264 2810 265 66 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 6053 10201 6171 10 189283283566 94257 2810 265 38 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650574 10922011 6518411 110 190285286570 96259 2810 265 38 -27 +2 +0 -4 +14 -1.4
Career— MLE — 964842 12928511 10239115 118 153257238494 84266 4111 224 38 -13 +0 +0 -2 +7 -0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650568 861937 6926410 75 151255232488 81263 4111 224 38 -29 +0 +0 -4 +14 -1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 183 PAwOBA .348 → .270 (−78)K% 31.1% → 42.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.15%÷1.000×1.360——42.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.85%÷1.000×0.690—×1.03011.26%
HBP% /PA0.55%—×0.780—×1.0300.44%
Singles /BIP28.12%÷1.000×0.920×1.016×1.03027.08%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.000×0.830×1.016×1.0307.24%
Triples /BIP2.08%÷1.000×0.910×1.016×1.0301.98%
Home runs /BIP3.12%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0302.58%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .348 → .270; ISO .137 → .104; BABIP .398 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 39 PAwOBA .436 → .298 (−138)K% 25.6% → 36.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.64%÷1.000×1.440——36.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.51%÷1.000×0.620—×0.99512.65%
HBP% /PA2.56%—×0.720—×0.9951.84%
Singles /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.820—×0.9958.16%
Doubles /BIP20.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.99514.33%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP10.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9957.76%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .436 → .298; ISO .333 → .238; BABIP .333 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 179 PAwOBA .271 → .169 (−103)K% 33.0% → 47.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.96%÷0.995×1.440——47.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.76%÷1.012×0.620—×1.00810.34%
HBP% /PA2.79%—×0.720—×1.0082.03%
Singles /BIP11.76%÷0.946×0.820×1.034×1.00810.63%
Doubles /BIP7.06%÷1.138×0.720×1.034×1.0084.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.929×0.720×1.034×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP4.71%÷1.328×0.780—×1.0082.79%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 89, 2B 128, 3B 86, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .271 → .169; ISO .125 → .065; BABIP .198 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Nationals · 146 PAwOBA .285 → .189 (−96)K% 34.9% → 50.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA34.93%÷0.999×1.440——50.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.49%÷0.979×0.620—×1.02211.97%
HBP% /PA2.74%—×0.720—×1.0222.02%
Singles /BIP23.81%÷1.021×0.820×1.020×1.02219.95%
Doubles /BIP6.35%÷0.987×0.720×1.020×1.0224.83%
Triples /BIP1.59%÷1.025×0.720×1.020×1.0221.16%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.975×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 104, 2B 97, 3B 105, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .285 → .189; ISO .053 → .033; BABIP .312 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Nationals · 114 PAwOBA .242 → .156 (−86)K% 38.6% → 46.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA38.60%÷1.023×1.220——46.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.40%÷0.965×0.700—×1.0228.46%
HBP% /PA0.88%—×0.700—×1.0220.63%
Singles /BIP23.64%÷0.989×0.680×0.967×1.02216.07%
Doubles /BIP9.09%÷1.078×0.600×0.967×1.0225.01%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.946×0.600×0.967×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.008×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 89, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .242 → .156; ISO .051 → .026; BABIP .321 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).