Elian SotoOF FCL Nationals
Age 20 L/R 6'1" / 182 lbs ROK HR -9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2032
wRC+†56
AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .268 / .291
PA150
HR3
K%36
BB%9
MLB%0%
BAT: -7.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: -0.0 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.40-0.4WAR
Scouting · nowfuture
HIT
2020
PWR
3030
SPD
4040
EYE
5960
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2032

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.9M+0.8$4M+$3M
2033Ext / FA-deal$1.0M+0.8$4M+$3M
2034Ext / FA-deal$1.0M+0.7$4M+$3M
2035Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.5$3M+$2M
2036Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.3$2M+$0.6M
2037Ext / FA-deal$7M
Totals $12M $16M +$3M
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Nationals 114103 10200 9611 03 .097.177.117.293 .019.233 548 .150 -27 -16 -1 +0 -1 +3 -1.5
202418 ROKFCL Nationals 146124 13210 17744 00 .105.234.137.372 .032.255 5112 .186 1 -16 +0 +0 -1 +4 -1.3
202519 ROKFCL Nationals 179156 13302 18865 22 .083.201.141.342 .058.162 4810 .162 -18 -24 -0 +0 -1 +5 -2.1
▸ 2026 Season
202620 MLBWSH 150133 26513 14542 21 .195.282.316.598 .120.282 369 .259 56 -7 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
202721 MLB 11%WSH 230203 39715 22783 41 .192.281.310.591 .118.284 3410 .276 70 -8 +0 +0 -1 +7 -0.2
202822 MLB 28%WSH 348306 631229 351124 61 .206.296.346.642 .141.286 3210 .288 79 -8 +1 +0 -2 +10 0.0
202923 MLB 48%WSH 428375 7814212 441346 72 .208.301.352.653 .144.286 3110 .296 84 -8 +1 +0 -3 +12 0.3
203024 MLB 62%WSH 481421 8816214 511486 72 .209.303.356.660 .147.287 3111 .301 88 -6 +1 +0 -3 +14 0.5
203125 MLB 87%WSH 511444 9417215 551577 72 .212.308.360.669 .149.288 3111 .304 91 -5 +1 +0 -3 +14 0.7
203226 MLBWSH 528458 9818216 581627 71 .214.312.367.678 .153.288 3111 .305 92 -5 +1 +0 -3 +15 0.8
203327 MLBWSH 534463 9818216 591647 71 .212.310.363.673 .151.288 3111 .305 92 -5 +1 +0 -3 +15 0.8
203428 MLBWSH 533461 9818216 601657 71 .213.312.364.677 .152.288 3111 .304 91 -5 +1 -1 -3 +15 0.7
203529 MLBWSH 526455 9618215 591647 61 .211.311.358.669 .147.287 3111 .302 89 -6 +1 -1 -3 +15 0.5
203630 MLBWSH 517447 9317215 581637 60 .208.309.356.664 .148.285 3211 .299 87 -8 +1 -2 -3 +15 0.3
203731 MLBWSH 504436 8916214 571616 50 .204.305.346.651 .142.283 3211 .295 84 -9 +1 -3 -3 +14 0.0
203832 MLBWSH 486423 8515213 541586 40 .201.300.338.638 .137.282 3311 .291 81 -11 +1 -4 -3 +14 -0.3
203933 MLBWSH 457398 7914212 511525 40 .198.297.334.632 .136.280 3311 .285 76 -12 +1 -4 -3 +13 -0.5
204034 MLBWSH 411357 6912210 461405 30 .193.294.322.616 .129.278 3411 .279 71 -13 +1 -5 -2 +12 -0.9
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career 70836163 122922429187 767233395 8418 .199.298.336.634 .137.283 3311 .288 78 -174 +10 -20 -42 +201 -2.6
/ 162G 650566 11321317 702149 82 .200.298.337.635 .138.284 3311 .288 78 -16 +1 -2 -4 +18 -0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202317 ROKDSL Nationals 11499 18500 13441 03 .182.283.232.516 .051.321 3911 .246 46 -7 -1 +3 -0.5
202418 ROKFCL Nationals 146114 20410 27514 00 .175.352.228.580 .053.312 3518 .288 79 -3 +0 +4 0.1
202519 ROKFCL Nationals 179144 20604 30595 22 .139.307.264.571 .125.198 3317 .278 71 -6 -0 +5 -0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Elian Soto (OGILVIE) 20 20 30 40 60 .183/.268/.291 .108.282 32 36% 9% 56 -0.3
Carlos Rodriguez
2023 · A
20 38 40→45 47→45 45 .183/.271/.272 .089.286 76 36% 10% 52 -1.6 .190/.265/.267 .077.298 56 35% 9% 47 -1.9 .182/.268/.267.085.2746333%10%48-0.6
Jose Quero
2019 · A
20 40 39→40 44→30 45 .196/.260/.275 .079.253 73 25% 7% 47 -1.9 .202/.258/.311 .109.257 106 25% 7% 55 -1.4 .196/.247/.344.148.22515421%6%63-0.2
Rudy van Heydoorn
2010 · A
21 33 41→45 41→50 41 .168/.252/.259 .091.262 98 37% 8% 41 -2.3 .197/.275/.307 .110.307 115 36% 9% 63 -0.9 .204/.303/.338.134.29214232%11%83+0.2
Iverson Leonardo
2022 · A
20 42 44→50 47→50 42 .203/.279/.327 .124.304 109 34% 8% 69 -0.4 .188/.266/.293 .105.307 98 39% 8% 55 -1.4 .155/.246/.249.095.2618840%9%34-0.7
Jose Cordoba
2023 · A
20 37 40 44→55 39 .185/.250/.273 .088.268 99 33% 6% 43 -2.2 .200/.257/.289 .089.277 611 28% 6% 49 -1.8 .197/.256/.288.091.26541526%6%45-0.8
Vicmal De La Cruz
2014 · A
20 40 38→40 48→50 41 .194/.250/.274 .080.270 56 29% 6% 42 -2.3 .184/.241/.255 .071.277 36 33% 6% 33 -2.9 .147/.214/.205.058.2250632%6%7-1.5
Yohairo Cuevas
2023 · A
19 41→38 37→40 49→55 43 .188/.266/.261 .074.308 49 37% 9% 46 -2.0 .191/.277/.276 .085.308 514 36% 10% 55 -1.4 .187/.286/.266.080.29641834%11%55-0.8
Jaden Rudd
2023 · A
20 40→36 40→30 49→50 49 .191/.281/.282 .091.264 611 28% 9% 59 -1.1 .179/.294/.247 .068.289 314 35% 11% 57 -1.2 .155/.287/.208.053.26521636%11%43-1.1
Herman Armas
2007 · A
20 41 40→45 47→50 41 .197/.264/.291 .093.287 711 32% 6% 53 -1.5 .217/.285/.327 .110.286 119 26% 7% 72 -0.2 .218/.293/.335.117.26614923%8%75-0.0
Henry Pena
2010 · A
19 40 39→45 45 44 .188/.265/.277 .089.300 55 36% 9% 50 -1.8 .203/.275/.305 .102.345 76 39% 9% 61 -1.0 .205/.278/.341.136.30913835%8%67-0.1
Leandro Pineda
2022 · A
20 35→38 36→45 43→45 46 .169/.251/.233 .063.244 47 30% 8% 33 -2.9 .185/.255/.290 .105.274 86 33% 7% 49 -1.8 .196/.262/.319.124.25814629%7%58-0.8
Angel Ortiz
2022 · A
19 42→40 41→50 46→40 44 .207/.262/.297 .091.272 99 27% 7% 53 -1.5 .205/.256/.301 .096.278 87 27% 6% 51 -1.7 .210/.263/.325.115.27610327%6%59-0.6
Michael De La Cruz
2016 · A
20 42 36→40 45→50 46 .195/.268/.263 .067.280 39 29% 8% 46 -2.0 .189/.255/.254 .065.302 310 35% 8% 38 -2.6 .156/.232/.188.031.26901438%9%10-1.5
Jose Meza
2023 · A
20 41→35 41→45 47→50 40 .199/.265/.295 .096.286 910 32% 6% 55 -1.4 .204/.294/.305 .101.301 98 32% 10% 70 -0.3 .186/.292/.283.097.27791033%11%63-0.5
Nelson B Alvarez
2016 · A
20 44 40 46→40 48 .209/.287/.305 .096.294 75 29% 9% 66 -0.6 .192/.273/.267 .075.264 54 27% 9% 51 -1.7 .153/.246/.204.051.2084426%10%23-1.1
Carter Jensen
2023 · A
20 38→47 43→50 46→50 46 .188/.269/.299 .110.273 107 33% 10% 58 -1.2 .198/.288/.331 .133.275 139 30% 11% 74 -0.1 .206/.294/.357.151.275171030%11%81+0.4
Gabriel Moncada
2023 · A
21 45→40 42→45 44→40 45 .213/.292/.322 .109.313 95 32% 8% 73 -0.1 .193/.265/.300 .107.294 103 35% 8% 56 -1.3 .170/.241/.264.094.2639136%8%34-1.4
Jose Roman
2011 · A
20 45 40 46→45 45 .215/.275/.308 .093.293 65 28% 8% 61 -1.0 .231/.290/.327 .096.288 76 21% 7% 72 -0.2 .249/.309/.344.095.2928617%8%81+0.2
Gilbert Marrero
2016 · A
19 38 39→45 44→40 42 .184/.251/.266 .082.281 64 35% 8% 41 -2.3 .181/.236/.250 .069.325 45 42% 6% 29 -3.2 .129/.166/.166.037.2670349%4%-26-1.2
Yeicok Calderon
2013 · A
21 40 46→45 45 38 .199/.255/.327 .129.302 135 37% 7% 58 -1.2 .193/.238/.311 .118.311 135 40% 5% 46 -2.0 .181/.221/.299.117.28213440%4%34-1.0