Elwis Mijares — OGILVIE

Elwis Mijares P St. Lucie Mets

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%21.3%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
Totals		$6M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	18	1	39	170	47	17	1	6%	2.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.3%	0.8%	3.96	3.51	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	18	1	39	170	47	17	1	6%	2.1	18.8%	12.5%	6.3%	0.8%	3.96	3.51	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	18	1	39	170	47	17	1	6%	2.1	27.6%	10.0%	17.6%	0.6%	3.96	2.32	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	14	11	45	199	59	17	1	79%	3.2	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	0.7%	5.16	3.15	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	14	11	45	199	59	17	1	79%	3.2	20.2%	10.7%	9.5%	0.7%	5.16	3.15	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	14	11	45	199	59	17	1	79%	3.2	29.6%	8.5%	21.1%	0.5%	5.16	1.91	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	16	64	18	7	1	0%	1.4	14.7%	17.2%	-2.5%	3.0%	2.20	5.66	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	16	64	18	7	1	0%	1.4	14.7%	17.2%	-2.5%	3.0%	2.20	5.66	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	16	64	18	7	1	0%	1.4	28.1%	10.9%	17.2%	1.6%	2.20	2.98	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	43	0	67	299	70	36	4	0%	1.6	17.5%	14.1%	3.3%	1.7%	4.86	4.37	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	43	0	67	299	70	36	4	0%	1.6	17.5%	14.1%	3.3%	1.7%	4.86	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	NYM	31	0	51	226	55	28	4	0%	1.7	24.3%	12.4%	11.9%	1.8%	4.91	3.59	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	NYM	12	0	15	73	15	8	0	0%	1.3	20.5%	11.0%	9.6%	0.0%	4.70	2.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYM	65	0	69	290	63	32	8	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYM	69	0	72	304	70	30	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.36	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYM	71	0	75	315	75	30	9	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	2.8%	4.31	4.20	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYM	73	0	77	323	78	29	9	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.09	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYM	74	0	78	328	81	29	9	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	2.7%	4.09	4.02	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYM	74	0	78	328	81	29	9	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.8%	16.1%	2.7%	4.04	4.00	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYM	73	0	76	323	80	28	9	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.04	4.04	+0.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYM	71	0	74	313	77	28	9	0%	1.0	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.09	4.12	+0.4
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYM	67	0	71	299	73	28	9	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.25	+0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	67	281	68	27	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	3.2%	4.33	4.43	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYM	32	0	34	144	31	16	4	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.0%	10.9%	2.9%	4.66	4.59	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	52	220	50	22	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.36	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYM	60	0	63	266	63	25	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	9.4%	14.3%	2.8%	4.31	4.20	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYM	65	0	68	287	70	26	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.09	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYM	68	0	71	300	74	26	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.8%	15.8%	2.7%	4.09	4.02	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYM	69	0	72	304	75	27	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.8%	16.1%	2.7%	4.04	4.00	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	73	308	76	27	9	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.8%	16.0%	2.8%	4.04	4.04	+0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYM	67	0	70	296	73	27	9	0%	1.0	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	2.9%	4.09	4.12	+0.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYM	64	0	67	283	69	26	9	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.2%	15.2%	3.0%	4.19	4.25	+0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	NYM	60	0	63	266	64	25	9	0%	1.1	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	3.2%	4.33	4.43	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		604	0	635	2679	648	247	77	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.20	3.80	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	78	24	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.2%	14.9%	2.9%	4.20	3.80	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		87	12	167	732	134	96	10	14%	1.9	18.3%	13.1%	5.2%	1.3%	4.47	3.95	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	14	200	877	160	115	12	14%	1.9	18.3%	13.1%	5.2%	1.3%	4.47	3.95	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elwis Mijares (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	21.3%	12.0%	2.9%	—	4.38	22.9%	12.8%	215	-0.43	—	—	—
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	87
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	86
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	86
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	85
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	85
Carlos Campos R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	20	SU	4.82	20.4%	10.7%	3.8%	.304	5.85	15.3%	8.1%	19	+1.03	4.82	134	85
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	85
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	85
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	85
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	85
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	84
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	84
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.46	398	84
Augusto Calderon R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	20	SU	4.24	21.2%	12.6%	2.4%	.226	4.35	18.2%	5.9%	126	+0.11	3.58	208	84
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	84
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	84
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	68	24.0%	9.4%	1.11	4.24
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93