Giovanni Vargas — OGILVIE

Giovanni Vargas P FCL Cardinals

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 179 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%19.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	1	18	85	24	11	0	7%	1.3	19.2%	16.2%	3.0%	0.0%	5.50	3.53	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	1	18	85	24	11	0	7%	1.3	19.2%	16.2%	3.0%	0.0%	5.50	3.53	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	14	1	18	85	24	11	0	7%	1.3	28.2%	12.9%	15.3%	0.0%	5.50	2.27	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	13	0	16	78	17	17	0	0%	1.2	14.8%	27.2%	-12.4%	0.0%	6.75	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	13	0	16	78	17	17	0	0%	1.2	14.8%	27.2%	-12.4%	0.0%	6.75	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	13	0	16	78	17	17	0	0%	1.2	21.8%	21.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	4.16	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	87	12	7	2	0%	1.4	9.7%	8.1%	1.6%	1.6%	5.40	4.18	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	87	12	7	2	0%	1.4	9.7%	8.1%	1.6%	1.6%	5.40	4.18	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	20	87	12	7	2	0%	1.4	13.8%	8.0%	5.7%	2.3%	5.40	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	0	24	115	24	16	2	0%	1.5	14.8%	17.7%	-2.9%	2.6%	4.44	5.54	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	0	24	115	24	16	2	0%	1.5	14.8%	17.7%	-2.9%	2.6%	4.44	5.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	STL	15	0	22	106	23	15	2	0%	1.5	21.7%	14.2%	7.5%	1.9%	4.84	4.10	—
2026	20	A RAW	STL	1	0	2	9	1	1	0	0%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.57	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	STL	24	0	25	106	22	13	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.91	4.82	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	STL	11	0	12	51	10	6	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.91	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	11	6	1	0%	1.0	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.91	4.44	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	98	16	0%	1.1	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.9%	4.91	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		57	1	78	365	53	62	4	2%	1.4	14.6%	17.1%	-2.5%	1.2%	5.40	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	3	200	932	136	159	11	2%	1.4	14.6%	17.1%	-2.5%	1.2%	5.40	4.70	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Giovanni Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	19.6%	13.2%	2.9%	—	4.82	20.6%	8.7%	25	-0.29	—	—	—
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	88
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	88
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	88
Austin Mason R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	87
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	86
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	86
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Aneudy Duarte R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	20	SU	4.79	17.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	102	86
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	85
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	517	85
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	474	85
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	85
Seth Mayberry R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	19	SU	4.12	18.3%	14.4%	1.4%	.270	3.41	23.6%	10.3%	53	-0.71	2.88	120	85
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	85
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	85
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	85