Walvin Mena

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECTFG #1039

ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Arizona R…	9	8	30	3.60	4.13	24.6%	10.7%	—	K 16.7% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.54
2025	19	ROKARI	10	2	14	3.77	3.59	21.7%	11.6%	—	K 14.8% · BB 14.5% · FIP 4.98
2026	20	MIX2 levels	19	1	29	5.52	5.66	13.7%	11.5%	—	K 11.8% · BB 12.5% · FIP 6.85
2027PROJ	21	MLBARI	77	0	81	5.39	5.39	17.9%	13.2%	-0.8
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBARI	40	0	42	5.06	4.92	20.7%	11.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBARI	61	0	64	4.78	4.63	22.5%	10.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff60Command40FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJosh White (age 22) · Jhonny Polanco (age 23) · Blake Quinn (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%17.9%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%4.6%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD2040

K†4060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	8	7	28	125	10	12	2	88%	3.5	5.4%	12.0%	-6.6%	2.2%	2.22	5.34	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	8	7	28	125	10	12	2	88%	3.5	8.0%	9.6%	-1.6%	1.6%	2.22	4.58	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	9	8	30	122	30	13	4	89%	3.3	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	3.9%	3.60	5.54	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	9	8	30	122	30	13	4	89%	3.3	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	3.9%	3.60	5.54	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	9	8	30	122	30	13	4	89%	3.3	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.3%	3.60	4.13	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	2	14	69	15	8	1	20%	1.4	14.8%	14.5%	0.3%	2.4%	3.77	4.98	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	2	14	69	15	8	1	20%	1.4	14.8%	14.5%	0.3%	2.4%	3.77	4.98	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	10	2	14	69	15	8	1	20%	1.4	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.4%	3.77	3.59	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	29	139	19	16	5	5%	1.5	11.8%	12.5%	-0.7%	5.8%	5.52	6.85	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	1	29	139	19	16	5	5%	1.5	11.8%	12.5%	-0.7%	5.8%	5.52	6.85	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	1	29	139	19	16	5	5%	1.5	13.7%	11.5%	2.2%	3.6%	5.52	5.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	ARI	77	0	81	342	61	45	11	0%	1.1	17.9%	13.2%	4.6%	3.2%	5.39	5.39	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	81	0	85	359	74	42	11	0%	1.0	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	3.1%	5.06	4.92	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	84	0	88	372	84	41	11	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	3.0%	4.78	4.63	-0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	86	0	90	382	90	40	11	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.57	4.44	+0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	92	386	94	39	12	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.34	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	87	0	92	386	96	39	12	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	3.0%	4.35	4.30	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	86	0	90	380	94	39	12	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.2%	14.7%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	83	0	87	369	91	38	12	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.3%	14.4%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	80	0	84	353	86	37	12	0%	1.0	24.5%	10.5%	13.9%	3.3%	4.49	4.55	0.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	75	0	78	331	87	33	12	0%	1.0	26.1%	10.1%	16.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.46	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	37	21	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.8%	8.9%	3.1%	5.06	4.92	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	61	0	64	270	61	29	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	3.0%	4.78	4.63	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	71	0	75	317	75	33	10	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.57	4.44	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	77	0	81	342	83	35	10	0%	1.1	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	3.0%	4.43	4.34	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	80	0	84	355	88	36	11	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.1%	14.7%	3.0%	4.35	4.30	+0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	80	0	84	355	88	36	11	0%	1.1	24.8%	10.2%	14.7%	3.0%	4.34	4.34	+0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	78	0	82	346	86	36	11	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.3%	14.4%	3.1%	4.39	4.42	+0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	75	0	79	334	82	35	11	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.5%	13.9%	3.3%	4.49	4.55	0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	71	0	75	317	83	32	11	0%	1.1	26.1%	10.1%	16.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.46	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		633	0	665	2806	680	292	87	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.08	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	88	26	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.1%	4.50	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		46	18	102	455	54	59	17	39%	2.2	11.8%	12.9%	-1.1%	3.8%	3.79	5.80	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	35	200	892	105	115	34	39%	2.2	11.8%	12.9%	-1.1%	3.8%	3.79	5.80	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walvin Mena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	17.9%	13.2%	3.2%	—	4.66	22.3%	11.3%	264	-0.73	—	—	—
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	90
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	85
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	85
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	84
Miguel Guerrero R 2021 · 5.00 FIP	21	SU	5.00	16.4%	12.9%	3.0%	.349	4.96	17.5%	5.4%	115	-0.04	4.56	171	83
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	83
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	83
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	82
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	82
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	82
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	82
Kelvin Vasquez R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	14.8%	13.8%	2.6%	.248	5.38	15.0%	-3.0%	103	+0.35	5.01	180	81
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	81
Corey Avant R 2024 · 4.76 FIP	22	SW	4.76	17.1%	14.9%	2.2%	.394	4.57	19.9%	6.4%	221	-0.19	3.69	292	80
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	79
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	79
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	79
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	79
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	79
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	87	23.4%	10.7%	1.21	4.62
Tom Griffin ('69-'82, 1 WAR*)	7.5	107	22.6%*	11.4%*	1.21*	4.93*
Bill Butler ('69-'77, 2 WAR*)	3.0	99	22.0%*	11.3%*	1.30*	4.83*
Wayne Twitchell ('70-'79, 4 WAR*)	5.3	133	24.2%*	11.3%*	1.16*	4.56*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*