Aniel Mendoza — OGILVIE

Aniel MendozaSS DSL Rangers Red

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 83 proj PA

wRC+59

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .275 / .295

PA83

HR1

K%29

BB%8

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	188	164	27	4	2	2	17	57	4	5	2	165	259	250	509	85	231	30	9	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	188	154	41	6	3	5	26	37	4	5	2	266	384	442	825	175	313	20	14	364	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	—	—	83	76	16	3	1	1	6	24	1	1	0	211	277	316	593	105	288	29	7	262	59	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	—	34%	122	111	24	4	1	2	9	34	1	2	0	216	281	324	605	108	289	28	7	272	66	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2028	23	MLB	—	48%	259	234	51	9	2	4	20	71	3	3	1	218	288	325	613	107	291	27	8	279	72	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2029	24	MLB	—	53%	357	322	72	12	3	7	28	97	4	5	1	224	294	345	639	121	292	27	8	284	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.5
2030	25	MLB	—	55%	417	376	83	14	3	8	33	113	5	5	1	221	292	338	630	117	292	27	8	286	77	-11	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.6
2031	26	MLB	—	56%	455	411	91	15	4	9	36	123	5	6	2	221	292	343	635	122	292	27	8	288	78	-11	+0	+0	+5	+13	0.7
2032	27	MLB	—	55%	474	428	96	16	4	10	38	129	5	6	2	224	295	350	646	126	292	27	8	288	78	-12	+0	+0	+5	+13	0.8
2033	28	MLB	—	55%	481	434	96	16	4	10	39	131	5	6	2	221	293	346	639	124	291	27	8	287	78	-12	+0	-1	+5	+14	0.7
2027	22	MLB	—	34%	42	39	8	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	205	262	308	570	103	289	29	7	272	66	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2028	23	MLB	—	48%	125	113	24	4	1	2	10	35	1	2	0	212	282	319	601	106	291	28	8	279	72	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB	—	53%	188	169	36	6	1	3	15	51	2	2	1	213	285	314	599	101	292	27	8	284	75	-5	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2030	25	MLB	—	55%	228	205	46	8	2	4	18	62	3	3	1	224	296	341	638	117	292	27	8	286	77	-6	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.3
2031	26	MLB	—	56%	253	228	51	9	2	5	20	69	3	3	1	224	295	346	641	123	292	27	8	288	78	-6	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2032	27	MLB	—	55%	261	235	52	9	2	5	21	71	3	3	1	221	293	340	634	119	292	27	8	288	78	-6	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2033	28	MLB	—	55%	263	236	52	9	2	5	22	72	3	3	1	220	295	339	634	119	291	27	8	287	78	-7	+0	-0	+3	+7	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1360	1225	269	46	10	25	109	372	15	17	5	220	291	335	626	115	293	27	8	286	77	-36	+1	-0	+15	+39	1.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	129	22	5	12	52	178	7	8	2	221	291	337	628	116	294	27	8	286	77	-17	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	2836	2556	556	93	24	53	226	779	33	39	11	218	290	335	624	117	289	27	8	281	73	-86	+3	-1	+30	+80	2.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	127	21	6	12	52	179	8	9	3	217	289	334	624	118	289	28	8	281	73	-20	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	—	188	154	41	6	3	5	26	37	4	5	2	266	384	442	825	175	313	20	14	364	137	+8	+0	—	—	+5	1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Gary Bennettlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,703 PA	8	1,703	20	6	239	301	327	+17	+6	2.6	2.6
	/162	664	8	2	239	301	327	+6.7	+2.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,444	27	19	221	290	339	+15	+15	1.7	1.8
	/162	664	13	9	221	290	339	+7.1	+6.9	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Aniel Mendoza (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	205/275/295	89	288	1	1	29%	8%	59	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	197/271/306	109	274	10	3	30%	9%	59	-1.1	224/278/372	148	290	19	6	29%	6%	77	+0.1
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2021 · A	21	41→51	39→45	50	42	199/261/284	85	279	6	11	30%	7%	50	-1.8	227/277/335	108	310	11	10	29%	6%	69	-0.4	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	56	-1.3	233/264/343	110	303	11	2	26%	4%	65	-0.7	240/274/351	111	288	9	0	19%	4%	69	-0.3
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Adan Velazquez 2011 · A	21	42→52	41→45	52→50	40	203/262/305	102	282	7	10	29%	6%	55	-1.4	223/270/319	96	299	8	9	27%	5%	62	-0.9	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2021 · A	21	44	37→55	45→40	42	208/272/281	73	279	3	5	26%	6%	53	-1.5	212/289/325	113	282	11	5	27%	7%	73	-0.1	186/269/361	175	235	26	0	33%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	39→49	38→45	48→50	44	184/272/269	85	267	5	10	31%	8%	52	-1.6	206/276/298	92	284	6	11	28%	6%	60	-1.0	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Dusty Ryan 2006 · A	21	37→46	40→50	43→40	38	183/235/269	86	268	8	6	34%	6%	34	-2.8	200/265/307	107	312	12	4	37%	7%	57	-1.2	212/288/371	159	311	18	3	35%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	38→44	42→50	45	39	189/240/301	111	260	9	5	30%	5%	45	-2.1	211/260/341	130	280	14	6	29%	6%	64	-0.8	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Cutter Dykstra 2010 · A	21	40→50	40	47→55	43	198/260/282	84	275	8	11	30%	7%	48	-1.9	217/273/292	75	304	6	16	29%	6%	56	-1.3	232/301/316	84	315	6	16	26%	8%	72	-0.2
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	41	-2.3	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	50	-1.7	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Arturo De Freitas 2022 · A	21	43	38→45	50→40	39	204/264/287	82	286	5	8	29%	5%	51	-1.7	173/225/248	75	289	7	4	40%	6%	24	-3.5	136/184/191	55	233	5	0	42%	5%	-10	-2.1
✕Jesus Ugueto 2012 · A	21	43	38→45	47→50	45	207/264/289	81	274	5	6	25%	7%	51	-1.7	234/283/350	116	301	10	11	24%	6%	75	-0.0	248/294/383	135	310	12	14	23%	5%	88	+0.4
✕Blake Hunt 2021 · A	22	41	39→50	49→40	43	198/254/288	90	263	6	6	26%	6%	47	-1.9	192/251/307	115	278	12	4	34%	6%	52	-1.6	207/268/341	134	263	14	2	26%	6%	65	-0.3