Adrian Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Adrian Gonzalez3B DSL NYY Bombers

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .279 / .282

PA4

HR0

K%28

BB%8

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	119	92	18	5	1	0	19	24	6	2	2	196	368	272	639	76	257	20	16	307	94	-1	-0	—	—	+3	0.1
2024	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	36	30	3	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	100	229	100	329		120	17	11	173	3	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	119	99	15	4	1	0	12	35	6	2	2	152	282	212	494	61	213	29	10	226	39	-9	-0	—	—	+3	-0.7
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	36	32	2	0	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	62	143	62	205		98	25	6	125	-29	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	119	99	15	4	1	0	12	35	6	2	2	152	282	212	494	61	227	29	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	119	92	18	5	1	0	19	24	6	2	2	196	368	272	639	76	257	20	16	307	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	36	32	2	0	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	62	143	62	205		83	25	6	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	36	30	3	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	100	229	100	329		120	17	11	173	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	119	100	15	4	1	0	12	35	6	2	2	150	282	210	492	60	213	29	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	36	33	2	0	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	61	143	61	203		98	25	6	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	119	100	15	4	1	0	12	35	6	2	2	150	282	210	492	60	213	29	10	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	36	33	2	0	0	0	2	9	1	0	0	61	143	61	203		98	25	6	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	250	250	250	500		288	25	0	261	62	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	113	101	21	4	1	1	9	31	2	1	0	208	286	297	583	89	289	27	8	271	69	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	247	221	48	9	2	3	20	67	4	3	1	217	294	317	611	100	290	27	8	278	74	-8	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	347	310	68	12	3	5	28	93	6	4	1	219	297	326	622	106	291	27	8	283	77	-9	+0	+0	+1	+8	-0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	407	365	81	15	3	7	33	108	6	4	1	222	297	337	634	115	292	27	8	285	79	-10	+0	+0	+1	+9	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	444	398	88	16	3	8	36	118	7	5	2	221	297	337	634	116	291	27	8	287	80	-11	+0	+0	+2	+10	0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	463	415	91	17	3	8	38	124	7	5	2	219	296	333	628	113	291	27	8	287	80	-11	+0	+0	+2	+10	0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	470	421	92	17	3	8	39	126	7	5	2	219	296	330	626	112	291	27	8	286	79	-12	+0	-1	+2	+10	-0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	468	419	91	16	3	8	39	127	7	4	1	217	295	327	622	110	290	27	8	284	78	-12	+0	-1	+2	+10	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	39	35	6	1	0	0	3	11	1	0	0	171	256	200	456	29	291	28	8	261	69	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	120	107	23	4	1	2	10	32	2	1	0	215	294	327	621	112	292	27	8	269	74	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	183	163	36	7	1	3	15	49	3	2	1	221	298	331	630	110	293	27	8	274	77	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	223	199	45	8	2	4	18	59	4	2	1	226	303	347	650	121	293	26	8	277	79	-5	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	247	221	50	9	2	5	20	66	4	3	1	226	302	353	655	127	293	27	8	278	80	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	255	228	51	9	2	5	21	68	4	3	1	224	300	346	647	123	293	27	8	278	80	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	257	230	51	9	2	5	21	69	4	3	1	222	298	343	642	122	292	27	8	277	79	-6	+0	-0	+1	+6	-0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	250	223	49	9	2	4	21	68	4	2	1	220	298	332	630	112	291	27	8	275	78	-7	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1574	1406	311	56	12	28	129	422	26	16	6	221	299	338	636	117	294	27	8	276	76	-40	+1	-1	+6	+34	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	129	23	5	12	53	174	11	7	2	222	299	341	640	119	294	27	8	276	76	-17	+0	-0	+2	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	3118	2785	598	110	22	48	256	839	53	33	12	215	293	322	615	107	287	27	8	280	76	-77	+2	-2	+11	+64	-0.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	125	23	5	10	53	175	11	7	3	215	293	324	617	108	287	27	8	280	76	-17	+0	-0	+2	+14	-0.0

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.4	1,613	26	17	220	294	330	+6	+2	0.9	0.9
/162	664	11	7	+2.4	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	203/279/282	79	288	0	0	28%	8%	62	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Niko Vasquez 2010 · A	21	41	37→50	46→45	42	193/260/264	71	288	5	6	33%	8%	51	-2.3	197/270/305	108	273	9	3	29%	8%	64	-1.3	221/278/353	132	287	16	6	28%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Ramon Mendoza 2022 · A	21	42→49	37→45	43→45	44	198/271/274	75	282	3	5	29%	8%	57	-1.8	197/270/281	84	288	5	5	31%	8%	58	-1.7	230/307/340	110	300	10	3	25%	9%	83	+0.0
✕Jesus Ugueto 2012 · A	21	43	38→45	47→50	45	207/264/289	81	274	5	6	25%	7%	57	-1.8	234/283/350	116	301	10	11	24%	6%	78	-0.3	248/294/383	135	310	12	14	23%	5%	89	+0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Emilio King 2011 · A	21	37	36→45	45→40	37	178/245/248	70	273	3	6	34%	5%	42	-2.9	214/256/307	93	316	7	4	33%	4%	58	-1.7	250/279/366	116	337	11	3	28%	2%	76	-0.3
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	53	-2.1	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	71	-0.8	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	70	-0.3
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	36	38→45	41→50	47	177/258/254	77	247	5	7	29%	9%	48	-2.5	190/264/281	91	260	7	10	28%	8%	56	-1.9	184/261/280	96	239	8	13	25%	8%	53	-0.7
✕Francisco Acuna 2021 · A	21	44→48	37→45	49→50	42	208/267/284	76	290	4	7	28%	6%	57	-1.8	193/273/282	89	275	6	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	63	-1.4	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Daurys Mercedes 2011 · A	21	45	36→45	46→45	45	204/279/273	69	310	2	8	32%	9%	59	-1.6	177/242/240	63	323	3	7	42%	7%	38	-3.2	131/193/181	50	259	2	5	47%	6%	4	-1.7
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	47	-2.6	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	53	-2.1	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	49	-0.9
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/298/304	85	284	8	4	24%	7%	74	-0.5	216/302/271	55	271	5	1	21%	8%	67	-0.3
✕Kenny Hart 2011 · A	21	45	39→45	47→50	42	211/286/293	83	298	6	9	29%	7%	68	-1.0	212/300/319	107	275	8	11	24%	8%	79	-0.2	187/295/308	121	227	11	15	21%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2021 · A	21	44→43	39→45	46→40	43	214/262/293	80	273	7	6	24%	6%	57	-1.8	225/298/328	103	300	8	4	26%	8%	80	-0.2	218/296/319	101	289	9	2	26%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→41	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	59	-1.7	214/277/357	143	320	16	4	36%	7%	78	-0.3	203/271/348	146	303	18	4	37%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Tomás Nido 2015 · A	21	44→43	39→45	49→30	43	212/267/299	87	285	6	7	27%	6%	61	-1.5	230/261/332	102	302	9	2	26%	4%	65	-1.2	238/272/346	108	283	9	0	19%	4%	71	-0.5
✕Lenyn Sosa 2021 · A	21	42→51	40→50	43→40	37	207/237/300	93	263	7	5	25%	3%	49	-2.4	227/259/346	119	289	14	3	26%	4%	68	-1.0	243/274/380	137	290	18	3	23%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Abel Nieves 2007 · A	21	44	35→40	47→45	46	208/267/270	62	270	2	6	23%	7%	54	-2.0	229/295/306	77	317	4	5	26%	9%	72	-0.7	237/311/319	81	332	4	4	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Elio Prado 2023 · A	21	42→38	36→40	46→50	45	196/282/260	64	285	4	6	30%	8%	59	-1.7	195/265/290	95	267	9	12	29%	7%	59	-1.7	182/251/273	91	250	9	14	30%	7%	47	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps