Bjorn Johnson
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
LHP
6'3" / 201 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2029
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%10.5%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2029
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Brewers | 8 | 6 | 19 | 99 | 16 | 18 | 1 | 11.0% | 22.7% | 1.6% | 8.38 | 5.91 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 30 | 0 | 73 | 309 | 75 | 38 | 2 | 18.0% | 14.5% | 0.7% | 4.33 | 3.81 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 50 | 26 | 6 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 57 | 243 | 53 | 27 | 6 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 2.5% | 4.68 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 55 | 25 | 6 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 59 | 24 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 62 | 23 | 7 | 24.0% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 64 | 23 | 7 | 24.3% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.96 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 64 | 23 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.94 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 64 | 23 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 256 | 63 | 23 | 7 | 24.5% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 3.97 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 61 | 22 | 7 | 24.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.02 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 59 | 22 | 7 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 4.08 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 56 | — | 56 | 234 | 56 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 47 | 20 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 40 | 6 | 94 | 419 | 69 | 68 | 4 | 16.6% | 16.3% | 0.9% | 5.27 | 4.26 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 85 | 13 | 200 | 891 | 147 | 145 | 9 | 16.6% | 16.3% | 0.9% | 5.27 | 4.26 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bjorn Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.14 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 179 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Keylan Killgore L 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 94 |
| Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 19.6% | 14.6% | 2.1% | .266 | 3.91 | 20.3% | 3.7% | 33 | -0.56 | 2.97 | 146 | 90 |
| Will Mabrey L 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.26 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .256 | 4.29 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 46 | +0.03 | 4.26 | 112 | 90 |
| Joe Kemlage L 2028 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.41 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 2.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 65 | +0.91 | 4.41 | 128 | 90 |
| Evan Shawver L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 89 |
| Avery Short L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.75 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .346 | 4.75 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 271 | +0.00 | 4.23 | 387 | 88 |
| Chase Watkins L 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 87 |
| Nate Peterson L 2028 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.45 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.7% | .284 | 4.96 | 17.1% | 5.7% | 161 | +0.51 | 4.32 | 236 | 87 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 87 |
| Bailey Horn L 2028 · 4.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.96 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .300 | 4.72 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.24 | 3.96 | 265 | 86 |
| Andrew Walling L 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 95 | -0.54 | 3.14 | 151 | 86 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.07 | 17.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.95 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 68 | -0.12 | 3.95 | 141 | 86 |
| Caden Monke L 2027 · 5.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.47 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 4.3% | .323 | 5.37 | 19.0% | -0.3% | 51 | -0.10 | 5.37 | 118 | 85 |
| Dante Biasi L 2028 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | .251 | 5.64 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +0.73 | 4.91 | 224 | 85 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.57 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.52 | 17.7% | 4.7% | 67 | -0.05 | 4.52 | 132 | 85 |
| Connor Oliver L 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.35 | 17.3% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .314 | 6.49 | 18.6% | 0.1% | 50 | +2.14 | 4.35 | 129 | 85 |
| Jonathan Hennigan L 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 22.0% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.57 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 119 | -0.46 | 3.46 | 265 | 84 |
| Daniel Brown L 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.79 | 17.9% | 12.7% | 1.1% | .327 | 4.22 | 16.9% | 3.2% | 112 | +0.43 | 3.79 | 184 | 84 |
| Chazz Martinez L 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.77 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 1.7% | .361 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 7.7% | 125 | -0.30 | 3.15 | 189 | 84 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2029 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.61 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.7% | .289 | 3.60 | 24.1% | 7.7% | 60 | -1.01 | 3.60 | 136 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| Totals | $7M | $19M | +$12M | ||