Bjorn Johnson — OGILVIE

Bjorn Johnson P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 21 LHP 6'3" / 201 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%17.0%

BB%17.3%

K-BB%-0.4%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	8	6	19	99	16	18	1	75%	2.4	11.0%	22.7%	-11.7%	1.5%	8.38	5.87	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	8	6	19	99	16	18	1	75%	2.4	11.0%	22.7%	-11.7%	1.5%	8.38	5.87	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	8	6	19	99	16	18	1	75%	2.4	16.2%	18.2%	-2.0%	1.0%	8.38	4.91	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	30	0	73	309	75	38	2	0%	2.4	18.0%	14.5%	3.4%	0.7%	4.33	3.80	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	30	0	73	309	75	38	2	0%	2.4	18.0%	14.5%	3.4%	0.7%	4.33	3.80	—
2025	20	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	30	0	73	309	75	38	2	0%	2.4	24.3%	12.3%	12.0%	0.6%	4.33	2.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	0	36	162	39	23	3	0%	1.5	18.5%	16.3%	2.2%	2.3%	5.80	4.87	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	24	0	36	162	39	23	3	0%	1.5	18.5%	16.3%	2.2%	2.3%	5.80	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	MIL	24	0	36	162	39	23	3	0%	1.5	24.1%	14.2%	9.9%	1.9%	5.80	3.88	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIL	65	0	69	290	54	44	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	15.1%	3.5%	2.6%	5.37	5.26	-0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	68	0	71	301	59	41	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.6%	6.0%	2.6%	5.10	4.97	-0.3
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	73	309	63	39	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	2.6%	4.90	4.79	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	74	312	65	38	8	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	2.6%	4.76	4.68	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	70	0	74	312	66	38	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.1%	8.9%	2.6%	4.70	4.65	-0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	69	0	73	308	65	37	8	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	2.6%	4.70	4.69	-0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIL	67	0	71	299	62	37	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	2.7%	4.75	4.78	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIL	64	0	68	285	59	36	8	0%	1.1	20.7%	12.6%	8.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.91	-0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIL	60	0	63	268	54	34	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	3.1%	4.99	5.08	-0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIL	32	0	34	144	27	22	4	0%	1.1	18.6%	15.1%	3.5%	2.6%	5.37	5.26	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	50	0	52	220	43	30	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	13.6%	6.0%	2.6%	5.10	4.97	-0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	58	0	61	258	53	33	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.7%	7.7%	2.6%	4.90	4.79	-0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	62	0	65	274	57	33	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	2.6%	4.76	4.68	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	60	35	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.1%	8.9%	2.6%	4.70	4.65	-0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	65	0	68	287	60	35	8	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.2%	8.9%	2.6%	4.70	4.69	-0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIL	63	0	66	279	58	34	8	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	2.7%	4.75	4.78	-0.2
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIL	61	0	64	270	56	34	8	0%	1.0	20.7%	12.6%	8.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.91	-0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIL	57	0	60	253	52	33	8	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	3.1%	4.99	5.08	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		512	0	538	2270	466	288	61	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.7%	7.8%	2.7%	4.87	4.46	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	107	23	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.7%	7.8%	2.7%	4.87	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		62	6	128	570	96	94	7	10%	2.1	16.9%	16.5%	0.5%	1.3%	5.36	4.47	-2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	9	200	893	151	147	12	10%	2.1	16.9%	16.5%	0.5%	1.3%	5.36	4.47	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bjorn Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	17.0%	17.3%	2.6%	—	5.00	19.6%	5.8%	213	-0.69	—	—	—
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	89
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	85
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	284	83
Max Green L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	22	SU	4.87	15.7%	13.3%	2.6%	.352	4.41	13.9%	6.6%	86	-0.46	4.19	169	83
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	82
Felix Cabrera L 2023 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	17.9%	18.6%	1.2%	.258	5.43	13.8%	-5.3%	62	+0.81	3.96	132	82
Raúl Alcantara L 2022 · 4.66 FIP	21	SU	4.66	16.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.291	4.42	18.9%	3.7%	230	-0.24	3.82	396	82
Luis Silva L 2018 · 5.05 FIP	21	SU	5.05	14.1%	13.4%	2.6%	.311	6.59	8.7%	-7.4%	12	+1.54	4.48	107	81
Gregori Louis L 2023 · 6.48 FIP	20	SU	6.48	17.3%	20.4%	4.1%	.241	4.37	19.6%	2.9%	111	-2.11	3.58	149	81
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	81
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	81
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	81
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	81
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	81
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	80
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	80
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	80
Ivan Jean L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	21	SU	4.50	16.8%	18.5%	0.9%	.258	3.77	20.1%	2.6%	121	-0.73	3.63	158	80
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2021 · 6.38 FIP	21	SU	6.38	11.6%	21.1%	2.9%	.342	4.70	17.3%	1.4%	45	-1.68	4.70	122	80
Riger Fernandez L 2018 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	17.2%	19.5%	0.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	164	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	68	20.2%	13.1%	1.04	4.95
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04