Joel Heredia — OGILVIE

Joel Heredia P FCL Phillies

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 190 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%20.6%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%6.4%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	10	35	166	33	23	2	91%	3.2	13.5%	17.3%	-3.8%	1.6%	4.89	5.04	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	11	10	35	166	33	23	2	91%	3.2	19.9%	13.9%	6.0%	1.2%	4.89	3.93	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	12	11	48	208	35	16	0	92%	4.0	11.4%	9.6%	1.8%	0.0%	3.97	3.35	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	12	11	48	208	35	16	0	92%	4.0	11.4%	9.6%	1.8%	0.0%	3.97	3.35	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	12	11	48	208	35	16	0	92%	4.0	16.8%	7.7%	9.1%	0.0%	3.97	2.64	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	14	0	17	77	12	15	0	0%	1.2	10.6%	24.4%	-13.8%	0.0%	4.32	5.29	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	14	0	17	77	12	15	0	0%	1.2	10.6%	24.4%	-13.8%	0.0%	4.32	5.29	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	14	0	17	77	12	15	0	0%	1.2	15.6%	19.5%	-3.9%	0.0%	4.32	4.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	PHI	3	3	14	59	12	8	2	100%	4.7	20.6%	14.1%	6.4%	2.9%	5.15	5.15	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	PHI	4	4	20	84	18	11	2	100%	5.0	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.85	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	PHI	2	2	9	38	8	5	1	100%	4.5	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	9	36	8	5	1	100%	4.3	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	187	117	23	100%	5.6	21.4%	12.5%	8.9%	2.9%	4.94	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		37	21	99	451	54	68	3	57%	2.7	12.1%	15.0%	-2.9%	0.6%	4.35	4.30	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	42	200	908	110	136	5	57%	2.7	12.1%	15.0%	-2.9%	0.6%	4.35	4.30	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Heredia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	20.6%	14.1%	2.9%	—	4.85	21.4%	8.9%	20	-0.30	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	79
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	79
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	79
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	78
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	77
Keagan Gillies R 2022 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP-	5.68	17.2%	11.3%	4.7%	.370	3.54	23.5%	13.9%	142	-2.14	2.93	177	77
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	77
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	76
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	76
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	76
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	75
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	75
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	75
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	75