Joel Heredia
P
FCL Phillies
Age 22
RHP
6'6" / 190 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%21.9%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 11 | 10 | 35 | 166 | 33 | 23 | 2 | 91% | 3.2 | 13.5% | 17.3% | -3.8% | 1.5% | 4.89 | 5.00 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 11 | 10 | 35 | 166 | 33 | 23 | 2 | 91% | 3.2 | 19.9% | 13.9% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 4.89 | 3.93 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 12 | 11 | 48 | 208 | 35 | 16 | 0 | 92% | 4.0 | 11.4% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 3.97 | 3.35 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 12 | 11 | 48 | 208 | 35 | 16 | 0 | 92% | 4.0 | 16.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 3.97 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 14 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 10.6% | 24.4% | -13.8% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 5.29 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 14 | 0 | 17 | 77 | 12 | 15 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 15.6% | 19.5% | -3.9% | 0.0% | 4.32 | 4.36 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PHI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.91 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 21 | 99 | 451 | 54 | 68 | 3 | 57% | 2.7 | 12.1% | 15.0% | -2.9% | 0.6% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 42 | 200 | 908 | 110 | 136 | 5 | 57% | 2.7 | 12.1% | 15.0% | -2.9% | 0.6% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Heredia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 21.9% | 10.1% | 2.8% | — | 4.29 | 22.8% | 13.4% | 20 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Carson Rudd R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 86 |
| Juan Mendez R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 82 |
| Cole Stapler R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.83 | 19.2% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .266 | 3.29 | 18.1% | 13.2% | 220 | -0.54 | 3.28 | 255 | 81 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 80 |
| Casey Legumina R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 79 |
| Franco Aleman R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .391 | 3.00 | 29.2% | 18.4% | 114 | -0.93 | 0.86 | 198 | 79 |
| Colin Fields R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 79 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 79 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 78 |
| Connor Cooke R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 78 |
| Chris Powell R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.31 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 0.9% | .320 | 3.63 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 62 | +0.32 | 3.31 | 102 | 78 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 77 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 77 |
| John Matthews R 2027 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 18.6% | 10.4% | 3.7% | .351 | 4.67 | 15.5% | 1.6% | 145 | -0.21 | 4.40 | 213 | 77 |
| Joe Cavallaro R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.35 | 17.2% | 9.1% | 1.0% | .239 | 3.83 | 17.6% | 7.1% | 203 | +0.48 | 3.35 | 238 | 76 |
| Daniel Bies R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 76 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 76 |
| Austin Hutchison R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.05 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .340 | 5.20 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 213 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 235 | 76 |
| Daniel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.49 | 21.3% | 12.0% | 1.2% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 163 | 76 |
| Clark Beeker R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 76 |