Rayner Arias — OGILVIE

Rayner AriasOF ACL Giants

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 206 lbs ROK HR -8%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 87 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†39

AVG/OBP/SLG.177 / .253 / .253

PA87

HR1

K%33

BB%6

BABIP265

ISO76

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	76	64	19	4	1	3	9	15	2	4	2	297	400	531	931	234	340	20	12	399	163	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	76	58	24	6	2	4	15	11	2	4	2	414	547	793	1.340	379	455	14	20	553	282	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Giants	—	105	93	16	6	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	172	267	258	525	86	296	37	7	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Giants	—	105	88	22	8	1	0	12	27	5	3	3	250	371	364	735	114	361	26	11	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	2 teams	—	208	187	27	4	1	2	9	74	8	5	2	144	216	209	424	64	217	36	4	187	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	2 teams	—	208	178	38	6	2	3	17	55	8	5	2	213	309	320	629	107	282	26	8	285	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	SF	—	107	91	11	3	0	1	7	48	8	3	0	121	245	187	432	66	233	45	7	204	14	-10	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.8
YTD	20	ROK	SF	—	107	86	16	4	0	2	12	33	8	3	0	186	340	302	642	116	269	31	11	305	91	-1	+1	+0	-1	+3	0.2
ROS	20	ROK	SF	0%	87	79	14	3	0	1	5	29	3	2	0	177	253	253	506	76	263	33	6	237	39	-6	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	SF	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		259	—	—	211	20	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	SF	—	107	92	11	3	0	1	7	48	8	3	0	120	245	185	430	65	227	45	7	204	14	-10	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.8
TOT	20	ROK	SF	—	194	170	25	6	0	2	12	77	11	5	0	147	249	218	466	71	250	40	6	219	25	-16	+1	+0	-1	+5	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SF	34%	277	250	46	9	1	4	18	88	7	4	1	184	258	276	534	92	266	32	6	250	50	-16	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
2028	22	MLB	SF	48%	384	347	67	13	2	7	25	118	9	6	2	193	265	303	568	110	270	31	7	260	57	-19	+0	+0	-2	+11	-1.0
2027	21	MLB	SF	34%	95	87	15	3	0	1	6	30	2	1	0	172	242	241	483	69	262	32	6	228	33	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
2028	22	MLB	SF	48%	186	168	32	6	1	3	12	57	4	3	1	190	261	292	553	101	265	31	6	238	41	-12	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	281	256	47	9	1	4	18	87	6	4	1	184	254	273	528	90	259	31	6	235	38	-20	+0	+0	-2	+8	-1.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	108	21	2	9	42	201	14	9	2	182	254	270	524	88	258	31	6	235	38	-46	+1	+0	-4	+18	-3.1
Career	—			—	1137	1020	189	39	6	17	73	363	34	24	10	185	263	285	548	100	265	32	6	248	48	-66	+1	+0	-7	+32	-4.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	108	22	3	10	42	208	19	14	6	185	262	285	547	99	265	32	6	248	48	-38	+0	+0	-4	+18	-2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	76	58	24	6	2	4	15	11	2	4	2	414	547	793	1.340	379	455	14	20	553	282	+16	+0	—	—	+2	1.8
2024	18	ROK	ACL Giants	—	105	88	22	8	1	0	12	27	5	3	3	250	371	364	735	114	361	26	11	340	118	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.5
2025	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	30	25	1	0	0	0	2	9	1	1	0	40	143	40	183		56	30	7	101	-64	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	19	ROK	ACL Giants	—	178	153	37	6	2	3	15	46	7	4	2	242	335	366	701	124	321	26	8	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+5	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	475	7	7	193	258	291	-3	+0	-1.6	-0.8
	/162	664	9	10	193	258	291	-4.0	+0.0	-2.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rayner Arias (OGILVIE)	20	30	30	45	30	147/249/218	71	250	2	5	40%	6%	25	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Didimo Bracho 2017 · A	20	35	37→30	48→60	34	172/222/242	69	271	5	13	37%	5%	21	-3.7	195/244/300	105	293	8	6	34%	5%	46	-2.0	181/230/321	140	251	11	3	32%	5%	41	-0.6
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	33	-2.9	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	60	-1.0	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Angel Solarte 2021 · A	20	39	39→30	49→45	39	192/239/277	85	258	6	7	28%	5%	37	-2.6	209/262/276	67	317	3	9	33%	5%	46	-2.0	204/258/257	53	313	2	10	33%	5%	38	-1.2
✕Luis Ubiera 2017 · A	20	38	34→30	45→50	41	178/237/225	46	258	1	9	30%	6%	24	-3.6	198/272/259	61	260	2	9	23%	7%	48	-1.9	182/277/230	48	229	0	10	18%	9%	41	-0.8
✕Justin Twine 2016 · A	20	34→31	37→45	48→50	29	172/203/245	73	259	4	7	35%	2%	14	-4.2	185/224/259	74	292	5	8	37%	3%	27	-3.3	216/252/313	97	321	8	14	34%	3%	50	-1.0
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	37	-2.6	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	27	-3.3	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	-6	-1.3
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	33	39→40	47→50	40	163/252/248	85	260	6	8	37%	7%	38	-2.6	191/272/288	97	316	8	13	39%	7%	56	-1.3	155/237/232	77	334	8	23	51%	6%	25	-1.2
✕Yan Olmo 2011 · A	20	40	35→30	47→55	37	189/241/246	57	258	3	9	27%	4%	30	-3.1	212/272/282	70	280	5	13	25%	5%	54	-1.4	218/288/274	56	269	6	23	20%	5%	54	-0.5
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A	20	39	40	48→50	38	191/241/288	97	267	7	9	30%	5%	42	-2.3	214/267/304	90	282	5	10	24%	6%	56	-1.3	223/275/315	92	285	5	14	22%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/269	81	260	6	7	29%	6%	42	-2.3	199/274/280	81	291	6	6	31%	8%	55	-1.4	183/255/250	66	251	6	11	27%	8%	37	-0.7
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/248/282	94	270	8	13	32%	6%	43	-2.2	195/260/276	81	313	7	10	37%	7%	47	-1.9	186/257/265	79	290	10	10	37%	7%	41	-1.1
✕Luis Reynoso 2015 · A	20	41	37→30	43→50	39	194/249/260	66	291	4	7	33%	6%	37	-2.6	191/245/244	53	335	3	5	41%	6%	32	-3.0	171/227/194	23	314	1	2	43%	6%	9	-1.2
✕Ronaldo Pulgar 2017 · A	20	38	35→30	45→55	40	182/242/240	58	271	3	7	32%	6%	30	-3.1	184/250/243	59	252	3	11	26%	7%	34	-2.8	163/236/208	44	213	3	16	23%	7%	16	-1.2
✕Ramy Perez 2015 · A	20	37	35→30	47→50	40	177/236/235	58	246	3	6	28%	6%	26	-3.4	194/241/256	62	251	2	8	23%	5%	33	-2.9	190/232/242	52	239	1	9	20%	4%	22	-1.2
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2016 · A	20	37	38→40	39→45	37	182/244/264	82	270	6	3	33%	5%	37	-2.6	171/254/244	73	261	5	5	34%	8%	37	-2.6	138/240/198	60	210	5	4	33%	9%	18	-1.5
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Nolan Perez 2019 · A	20	36	38→40	45→40	36	178/228/253	74	267	5	4	34%	5%	27	-3.3	191/230/273	82	324	6	5	41%	4%	33	-2.9	174/195/256	81	303	6	1	44%	2%	11	-1.4
✕Luis Ramos 2008 · A	20	41	37→30	44→50	37	196/247/266	70	288	4	7	32%	5%	38	-2.6	205/255/279	74	273	5	11	25%	5%	45	-2.1	213/260/271	58	259	4	17	18%	4%	40	-1.0
✕Israel Mota 2016 · A	20	40	40→45	48→50	37	197/242/286	89	284	7	9	32%	5%	41	-2.3	198/260/293	95	301	8	7	35%	6%	52	-1.6	139/226/244	105	204	11	5	36%	7%	26	-0.7
✕Luis Gomez 2006 · A	20	40	37→30	46→45	44	190/262/256	67	288	4	9	33%	8%	43	-2.2	206/258/264	58	286	2	7	27%	5%	42	-2.3	234/279/287	53	328	0	9	27%	4%	53	-0.7