Rayner Arias

OF ACL Giants
Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 206 lbs ROK HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKSF105.250/.371/.3640339—.161/.257/.237
202519A/ROKSF208.213/.309/.3203516—.145/.220/.209
202620ROKSF120.196/.345/.3614330—.127/.252/.235
2027PROJMLE21MLBSF230.186/.249/.2723348-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBSF46.188/.253/.2811154-0.2
Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Chase%75
ISO71
Z-Con%55
Speed43
Whiff%34
wRC+30
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%
CompsVictor Duarte (age 21) · Orlando Sandoval (age 21) · Luis Palacios (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 73 proj PA
wRC+†48
AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .247 / .270
PA73
HR1
K%32
BB%6
ISO86
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.4 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +1.6 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.3-0.22728
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT30
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE30
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Giants Black — 7658 24624 15112 42 4145477931.340 379455 1420 553 129 — — — — — —
202418 ROKACL Giants — 10588 22810 12275 33 250371364735 114361 2611 340 39 — — — — — —
202519 ASan Jose Giants — 3025 1000 291 10 4014340183 56 307 101 -58 — — — — — —
202519 ROKACL Giants — 178153 37623 15467 42 242335366701 124321 268 316 29 — — — — — —
202620 ROKACL Giants — 12097 19404 13399 30 196345361705 165273 3211 326 30 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Giants Black — 7662 16412 11132 42 258387452838 194287 1714 359 129 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Giants — 10593 15510 7395 33 161257237494 75281 377 226 39 — — — — — —
202519 A MLESan Jose Giants — 3026 1000 1131 10 3810738146 53 433 83 -58 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEACL Giants — 178160 26412 9637 42 163239237476 75240 355 211 29 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Giants — 120102 13203 8569 30 127252235487 108214 477 213 30 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Giants Black — 7662 16412 11132 42 258387452838 194292 1714 359 129 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Giants Black — 7658 24624 15112 42 4145477931.340 379455 1420 553 129 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Giants — 10593 15510 7395 33 161257237494 75278 377 226 39 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWACL Giants — 10588 22810 12275 33 250371364735 114361 2611 340 39 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 208186 27412 10768 52 145221210430 65223 375 193 16 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAW2 teams — 208178 38623 17558 52 213309320629 107282 268 285 16 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Giants — 120102 13203 8569 30 127252235487 108227 477 213 30 — — — — — —
202620 ROK RAWACL Giants — 12097 19404 13399 30 196345361705 165273 3211 326 30 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Giants Black — 7663 16412 11132 42 254387444831 190287 1714 359 129 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEACL Giants — 10592 15510 7395 33 163257239496 76281 377 226 39 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 208188 27412 10768 52 144221207428 64213 375 193 16 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Giants — 120102 13203 8569 30 127252235487 108214 477 213 30 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEACL Giants — 10592 15510 7395 33 163257239496 76281 377 226 39 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLE2 teams — 208188 27412 10768 52 144221207428 64213 375 193 16 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEACL Giants — 120102 13203 8569 30 127252235487 108214 477 213 30 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLESF 0% 230211 39713 13734 31 186249272522 86268 326 239 48 -14 +0 +0 -1 +5 -0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLESF 34% 133121 23412 8413 21 191256287543 96270 316 247 54 -7 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.5
202822 MLB CTXSF 34% 4642 9201 3141 10 188253281534 92267 307 244 54 -3 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4642 9201 3141 10 214283333616 119296 307 244 44 -3 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650593 12728014 4219814 140 214282332614 118297 306 244 44 -36 +3 +0 -4 +14 -2.3
Career— MLE — 715632 10621410 4824828 188 168257261518 93252 357 234 44 -12 +0 +0 -1 +4 -0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650575 971949 4422525 167 169258263520 94254 357 234 44 -38 +1 +0 -4 +14 -2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Giants · 120 PAwOBA .321 → .213 (−107)K% 32.5% → 46.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.50%÷1.000×1.440——46.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.83%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9956.68%
HBP% /PA7.50%—×0.720—×0.9955.37%
Singles /BIP18.97%÷1.000×0.820×1.012×0.99515.66%
Doubles /BIP6.90%÷1.000×0.720×1.012×0.9955.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720×1.012×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP6.90%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9955.35%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .321 → .213; ISO .165 → .107; BABIP .273 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Giants · 178 PAwOBA .312 → .211 (−101)K% 25.8% → 35.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.84%÷1.045×1.440——35.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.43%÷1.070×0.620—×1.0084.92%
HBP% /PA3.93%—×0.720—×1.0082.85%
Singles /BIP24.30%÷1.042×0.820×0.978×1.00818.85%
Doubles /BIP5.61%÷1.001×0.720×0.978×1.0083.97%
Triples /BIP1.87%÷1.150×0.720×0.978×1.0081.15%
Home runs /BIP2.80%÷1.128×0.780—×1.0081.95%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 108, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 109, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .312 → .211; ISO .124 → .080; BABIP .321 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 30 PAwOBA .106 → .083 (−23)K% 30.0% → 42.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA30.00%÷0.962×1.360——42.43%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.67%÷1.055×0.690—×1.0454.56%
HBP% /PA3.33%—×0.780—×1.0452.72%
Singles /BIP6.25%÷1.007×0.920—×1.0455.97%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.138×0.830—×1.0450.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.902×0.910—×1.0450.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.358×0.800—×1.0450.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 172, 1B 101, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .106 → .083; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .056 → .053. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Giants · 105 PAwOBA .332 → .226 (−106)K% 25.7% → 37.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.71%÷0.997×1.440——37.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.43%÷1.062×0.620—×1.0226.82%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.720—×1.0223.51%
Singles /BIP21.31%÷1.003×0.820×0.951×1.02216.94%
Doubles /BIP13.11%÷0.927×0.720×0.951×1.0229.91%
Triples /BIP1.64%÷0.900×0.720×0.951×1.0221.28%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.178×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 101, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .332 → .226; ISO .114 → .078; BABIP .361 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Giants Black · 76 PAwOBA .546 → .359 (−187)K% 14.5% → 17.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.47%÷1.020×1.220——17.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA19.74%÷1.002×0.700—×1.02214.09%
HBP% /PA2.63%—×0.700—×1.0221.88%
Singles /BIP25.53%÷0.970×0.680—×1.02218.30%
Doubles /BIP12.77%÷1.028×0.600—×1.0227.62%
Triples /BIP4.26%÷1.150×0.600—×1.0222.27%
Home runs /BIP8.51%÷1.118×0.470—×1.0223.66%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 94, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .546 → .359; ISO .379 → .202; BABIP .455 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).