Rayner Arias — OGILVIE

Rayner AriasOF ACL Giants

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 206 lbs ROK HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION120 act + 16 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.133 / .188 / .133

PA16

HR0

K%31

BB%6

BABIP257

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	76	58	24	6	2	4	15	11	2	4	2	414	547	793	1.340	379	455	14	20	553	261	+15	+0	—	—	+2	1.6
2024	18	ROK	ACL Giants	—	105	88	22	8	1	0	12	27	5	3	3	250	371	364	735	114	361	26	11	340	116	+2	-1	—	—	+2	0.4
2025	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	30	25	1	0	0	0	2	9	1	1	0	40	143	40	183		56	30	7	101	-45	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2025	19	ROK	ACL Giants	—	178	153	37	6	2	3	15	46	7	4	2	242	335	366	701	124	321	26	8	316	100	+0	+0	—	—	+4	0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	76	64	19	4	1	3	9	16	2	4	2	297	400	531	931	234	345	21	12	406	161	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	93	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	161	257	237	494	75	275	37	7	222	36	-8	-1	—	—	+2	-0.6
2025	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	30	26	1	0	0	0	1	13	1	1	0	38	107	38	146		50	43	3	81	-59	-6	+0	—	—	+1	-0.5
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	178	160	26	4	1	2	9	63	7	4	2	163	239	237	476	75	238	35	5	210	28	-15	+0	—	—	+4	-1.2
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	76	64	19	4	1	3	9	16	2	4	2	297	400	531	931	234	348	21	12	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	76	58	24	6	2	4	15	11	2	4	2	414	547	793	1.340	379	455	14	20	553	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	93	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	161	257	237	494	75	278	37	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	—	105	88	22	8	1	0	12	27	5	3	3	250	371	364	735	114	361	26	11	340	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	208	186	27	4	1	2	10	76	8	5	2	145	221	210	430	65	223	37	5	191	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	208	178	38	6	2	3	17	55	8	5	2	213	309	320	629	107	282	26	8	285	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	76	65	19	4	1	3	9	16	2	4	2	292	400	523	923	231	345	21	12	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	92	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	163	257	239	496	76	275	37	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	208	188	27	4	1	2	10	76	8	5	2	144	221	207	428	64	211	37	5	191	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	76	65	19	4	1	3	9	16	2	4	2	292	400	523	923	231	345	21	12	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	92	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	163	257	239	496	76	275	37	7	222	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	208	188	27	4	1	2	10	76	8	5	2	144	221	207	428	64	211	37	5	191	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	SF	—	120	102	13	2	0	3	8	56	9	3	0	127	252	235	487	108	227	47	7	214	31	-10	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK RAW	SF	—	120	97	19	4	0	4	13	39	9	3	0	196	345	361	705	165	273	32	11	326	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	20	ROK MLE	SF	0%	16	15	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	133	188	133	321		262	31	6	240	49	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	20	ROK MLE	SF	—	136	117	15	2	0	3	9	61	9	3	0	128	244	222	467	94	222	45	7	217	33	-11	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SF	34%	277	250	46	9	1	5	18	90	7	4	1	184	258	288	546	104	266	32	6	251	56	-14	+0	+0	-2	+6	-1.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	SF	34%	95	87	15	3	0	1	6	31	2	1	0	172	242	241	483	69	261	33	6	228	56	-5	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	95	87	15	3	0	1	6	31	2	1	0	172	242	241	483	69	255	33	6	228	52	-5	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	103	21	0	7	41	212	14	7	0	173	243	244	487	71	255	33	6	228	52	-34	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.3
Career	—	MLE		—	682	608	109	22	4	10	45	226	22	16	8	179	261	278	539	99	262	33	7	246	52	-15	+0	+0	-2	+6	-1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	105	21	4	10	43	215	21	15	8	181	263	283	546	102	264	33	7	246	52	-34	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	289	4	4	190	253	284	-2	+0	-1.0	-0.5
/162	664	9	10	-4.0	+0.0	-2.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rayner Arias (OGILVIE)	20	30	30	45	30	175/251/265	90	262	3	3	34%	6%	49	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Didimo Bracho 2017 · A	20	35	37→30	48→60	34	172/222/242	69	271	5	13	37%	5%	30	-3.8	195/244/300	105	293	8	6	34%	5%	52	-2.2	181/230/321	140	251	11	3	32%	5%	48	-0.7
✕Justin Twine 2016 · A	20	35→32	38→40	48→50	29	176/206/253	77	258	5	7	34%	2%	26	-4.0	189/228/265	76	293	5	8	36%	3%	38	-3.2	214/250/302	88	318	6	14	33%	3%	53	-1.2
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	41	-3.0	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	65	-1.2	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	61	-0.3
✕Angel Solarte 2021 · A	20	39	39→30	49→45	39	192/239/277	85	258	6	7	28%	5%	45	-2.7	213/265/279	66	317	3	9	32%	6%	55	-1.9	210/264/263	53	316	2	10	32%	5%	49	-1.1
✕Francisco Medina 2018 · A	20	40	38→40	45→40	39	194/247/263	69	280	6	5	32%	6%	45	-2.7	179/229/253	74	344	5	6	46%	6%	36	-3.4	135/180/213	77	254	5	6	47%	5%	6	-1.3
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	33	39→40	47→50	40	163/252/248	85	260	6	8	37%	7%	45	-2.7	192/272/290	98	317	8	13	39%	7%	62	-1.4	158/238/238	80	331	8	23	50%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A	20	39	40	48→50	38	191/241/288	97	267	7	9	30%	5%	49	-2.4	214/267/304	90	282	5	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	223/275/315	92	285	5	14	22%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Luis Ubiera 2017 · A	20	38	34→30	45→50	41	178/237/225	46	258	1	9	30%	6%	32	-3.6	198/272/259	61	260	2	9	23%	7%	54	-2.0	182/277/230	48	229	0	10	18%	9%	48	-0.9
✕Yan Olmo 2011 · A	20	40	35→30	47→55	37	189/241/246	57	258	3	9	27%	4%	38	-3.2	212/272/282	70	280	5	13	25%	5%	59	-1.7	218/288/274	56	269	6	23	20%	5%	59	-0.6
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	36→33	37→45	47→30	38	174/239/249	74	275	4	6	36%	6%	39	-3.1	196/254/306	110	314	10	3	38%	7%	58	-1.7	173/241/298	125	280	15	1	41%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/249/281	94	269	8	13	32%	6%	51	-2.3	196/261/274	78	315	7	10	37%	7%	53	-2.1	188/258/263	75	295	9	10	37%	7%	47	-1.2
✕Luis Reynoso 2015 · A	20	41	37→30	43→50	39	194/249/260	66	291	4	7	33%	6%	45	-2.7	193/248/247	54	331	3	5	40%	6%	41	-3.0	176/233/201	25	312	1	2	41%	6%	23	-1.1
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	41	-3.0	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	43	-2.8	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	24	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→29	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	49	-2.4	210/275/314	104	329	8	15	36%	7%	68	-1.0	190/253/306	116	287	12	16	36%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	39	38→30	48→45	42	188/251/270	82	260	6	7	29%	6%	49	-2.4	199/275/282	83	287	6	6	30%	8%	61	-1.5	182/254/249	67	248	6	11	27%	8%	43	-0.7
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2016 · A	20	37	38→40	39→45	37	182/244/264	82	270	6	3	33%	5%	45	-2.7	171/254/244	73	261	5	5	34%	8%	45	-2.7	138/240/198	60	210	5	4	33%	9%	28	-1.5
✕Nolan Perez 2019 · A	20	36	38→40	45→40	36	178/228/253	74	267	5	4	34%	5%	35	-3.4	191/230/273	82	324	6	5	41%	4%	40	-3.0	174/195/256	81	303	6	1	44%	2%	22	-1.3
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	38	42→40	44→55	39	190/253/289	99	277	10	9	34%	6%	54	-2.0	206/263/300	94	283	6	11	28%	6%	59	-1.6	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Alfredo González 2012 · A	20	36	36→30	47→45	38	174/218/242	68	245	2	8	29%	5%	28	-3.9	194/246/266	72	256	4	10	25%	5%	45	-2.7	232/294/283	50	313	3	6	25%	7%	64	-0.5
✕Israel Mota 2016 · A	20	40	40→45	48→50	37	197/242/286	89	284	7	9	32%	5%	48	-2.5	198/260/293	95	301	8	7	35%	6%	57	-1.8	139/226/244	105	204	11	5	36%	7%	34	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps