Rayner AriasOF
ACL Giants
Age 20
R/R
6'0" / 206 lbs
ROK
BB -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.3 · 2032
wRC+†65
AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .272 / .323
PA194
HR4
K%29
BB%7
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
30→30
PWR
30→30
SPD
45→45
EYE
41↘30
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2032
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.3 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.2 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.3M |
| Totals | $10M | $55M | +$45M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 76 | 64 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .297 | .400 | .531 | .931 | .234 | .340 | 20 | 12 | .400 | 164 | +6 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants | 105 | 93 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 3 | 3 | .161 | .257 | .237 | .494 | .075 | .278 | 37 | 7 | .223 | 29 | -8 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | 2 teams | 208 | 186 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 75 | 8 | 5 | 2 | .145 | .221 | .210 | .430 | .065 | .221 | 36 | 5 | .190 | 3 | -23 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +6 | -1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | SF | 194 | 176 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 57 | 3 | 3 | 1 | .210 | .276 | .330 | .606 | .119 | .282 | 29 | 7 | .271 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB 11% | SF | 277 | 250 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 77 | 4 | 5 | 1 | .216 | .287 | .344 | .631 | .128 | .284 | 28 | 8 | .287 | 78 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB 28% | SF | 384 | 345 | 77 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 31 | 102 | 5 | 7 | 2 | .223 | .297 | .362 | .659 | .139 | .286 | 27 | 8 | .298 | 86 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +11 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB 48% | SF | 454 | 406 | 93 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 118 | 6 | 8 | 2 | .229 | .306 | .382 | .688 | .153 | .286 | 26 | 9 | .305 | 92 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +13 | 0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB 62% | SF | 499 | 445 | 103 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 44 | 127 | 7 | 9 | 2 | .231 | .310 | .389 | .699 | .157 | .287 | 25 | 9 | .310 | 95 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +14 | 1.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB 87% | SF | 525 | 466 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 47 | 133 | 7 | 9 | 2 | .234 | .313 | .393 | .706 | .159 | .287 | 25 | 9 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | SF | 539 | 477 | 110 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 49 | 137 | 8 | 9 | 2 | .231 | .313 | .386 | .698 | .155 | .288 | 25 | 9 | .315 | 99 | -1 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.3 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | SF | 543 | 480 | 111 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 50 | 138 | 8 | 9 | 2 | .231 | .314 | .385 | .700 | .154 | .288 | 25 | 9 | .315 | 99 | -1 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.3 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | SF | 540 | 477 | 110 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 51 | 139 | 7 | 8 | 1 | .231 | .314 | .386 | .700 | .155 | .287 | 26 | 9 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | SF | 532 | 470 | 108 | 20 | 3 | 16 | 50 | 138 | 7 | 8 | 1 | .230 | .313 | .387 | .700 | .157 | .287 | 26 | 9 | .311 | 96 | -2 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +15 | 1.0 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | SF | 523 | 462 | 105 | 19 | 3 | 15 | 49 | 137 | 7 | 7 | 0 | .227 | .311 | .379 | .690 | .152 | .285 | 26 | 9 | .308 | 94 | -4 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +15 | 0.8 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | SF | 509 | 449 | 100 | 18 | 3 | 14 | 48 | 136 | 7 | 6 | 0 | .223 | .308 | .370 | .677 | .147 | .284 | 27 | 9 | .304 | 91 | -5 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +14 | 0.5 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | SF | 491 | 436 | 95 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 46 | 134 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .218 | .301 | .356 | .657 | .138 | .282 | 27 | 9 | .300 | 88 | -7 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 0.2 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | SF | 462 | 410 | 88 | 16 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 129 | 6 | 5 | 0 | .215 | .298 | .351 | .650 | .137 | .280 | 28 | 9 | .294 | 83 | -9 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2040 | 34 | MLB | SF | 416 | 369 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 120 | 5 | 5 | 0 | .211 | .295 | .341 | .637 | .130 | .279 | 29 | 9 | .288 | 78 | -10 | +1 | -5 | -2 | +12 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7277 | 6461 | 1439 | 264 | 41 | 197 | 646 | 1951 | 108 | 115 | 23 | .223 | .304 | .368 | .672 | .145 | .285 | 27 | 9 | .301 | 89 | -94 | +14 | -20 | -44 | +206 | 6.4 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 577 | 130 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 58 | 174 | 10 | 10 | 2 | .225 | .307 | .374 | .682 | .149 | .288 | 27 | 9 | .301 | 89 | -8 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 0.6 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 76 | 58 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | .414 | .547 | .793 | 1.340 | .379 | .455 | 14 | 20 | .553 | 282 | +16 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants | 105 | 88 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 27 | 5 | 3 | 3 | .250 | .371 | .364 | .735 | .114 | .361 | 26 | 11 | .340 | 118 | +2 | -1 | — | — | +3 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | 30 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .040 | .143 | .040 | .183 | .000 | .056 | 30 | 7 | .101 | -64 | -6 | +0 | — | — | +1 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants | 178 | 153 | 37 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 7 | 4 | 2 | .242 | .335 | .366 | .701 | .124 | .321 | 26 | 8 | .316 | 100 | +0 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 0.5 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Rayner Arias (OGILVIE) | 20 | 30 | 30 | 45 | 30 | .208/.272/.323 | .115 | .282 | 4 | 3 | 29% | 7% | 65 | -0.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A |
20 | 37 | 40 | 44→55 | 39 | .185/.250/.273 | .088 | .268 | 9 | 9 | 33% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .200/.257/.289 | .089 | .277 | 6 | 11 | 28% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .197/.256/.288 | .091 | .265 | 4 | 15 | 26% | 6% | 45 | -0.8 |
|
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A |
20 | 41→35 | 41→45 | 47→50 | 40 | .199/.265/.295 | .096 | .286 | 9 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .204/.294/.305 | .101 | .301 | 9 | 8 | 32% | 10% | 70 | -0.3 | .186/.292/.283 | .097 | .277 | 9 | 10 | 33% | 11% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A |
19 | 36 | 41→45 | 47→60 | 41 | .181/.239/.272 | .091 | .247 | 9 | 13 | 30% | 6% | 37 | -2.6 | .219/.271/.301 | .082 | .284 | 7 | 20 | 24% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .234/.281/.297 | .063 | .300 | 5 | 24 | 23% | 5% | 58 | -0.3 |
|
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A |
19 | 42 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 43 | .205/.277/.309 | .104 | .271 | 9 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .224/.284/.326 | .102 | .290 | 5 | 11 | 24% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .226/.280/.337 | .111 | .291 | 6 | 11 | 23% | 4% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Enger Jimenez 2015 · A |
20 | 38 | 40 | 48→50 | 37 | .188/.238/.285 | .097 | .266 | 7 | 9 | 31% | 5% | 40 | -2.4 | .213/.266/.304 | .091 | .281 | 5 | 10 | 25% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .223/.275/.315 | .092 | .285 | 5 | 14 | 22% | 5% | 59 | -0.5 |
|
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A |
20 | 40 | 43→45 | 43→50 | 47 | .193/.290/.298 | .105 | .281 | 11 | 10 | 32% | 10% | 67 | -0.5 | .182/.264/.285 | .103 | .284 | 10 | 6 | 37% | 8% | 52 | -1.6 | .153/.236/.254 | .101 | .237 | 11 | 2 | 38% | 9% | 32 | -0.9 |
|
✕Efrain Contreras 2007 · A |
20 | 44 | 41→45 | 51→55 | 44 | .212/.278/.308 | .097 | .264 | 8 | 8 | 22% | 6% | 63 | -0.8 | .227/.291/.336 | .109 | .276 | 10 | 14 | 21% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .227/.291/.331 | .104 | .281 | 10 | 15 | 22% | 5% | 72 | -0.1 |
|
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A |
20 | 45 | 38→30 | 48→60 | 46 | .214/.278/.298 | .084 | .285 | 5 | 12 | 26% | 8% | 60 | -1.0 | .216/.302/.277 | .061 | .288 | 3 | 24 | 23% | 10% | 66 | -0.6 | .216/.317/.260 | .044 | .285 | 1 | 34 | 22% | 12% | 65 | -0.3 |
|
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A |
21 | 42 | 39→40 | 45→55 | 37 | .199/.254/.291 | .092 | .307 | 6 | 8 | 35% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .213/.277/.298 | .085 | .301 | 6 | 15 | 29% | 7% | 60 | -1.0 | .216/.288/.295 | .079 | .292 | 7 | 22 | 26% | 7% | 60 | -0.3 |
|
✕Felix G. Santana 2015 · A |
20 | 45 | 36→40 | 46→50 | 40 | .209/.272/.279 | .070 | .291 | 3 | 10 | 28% | 5% | 53 | -1.5 | .219/.271/.307 | .088 | .289 | 6 | 7 | 25% | 5% | 59 | -1.1 | .224/.254/.306 | .082 | .289 | 7 | 0 | 24% | 2% | 46 | -0.4 |
|
✕Luis Hidalgo 2017 · A |
21 | 39 | 43→45 | 46→45 | 44 | .196/.254/.303 | .107 | .234 | 12 | 12 | 22% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .223/.274/.346 | .123 | .264 | 13 | 9 | 21% | 5% | 71 | -0.3 | .259/.302/.380 | .121 | .288 | 12 | 8 | 14% | 4% | 89 | +0.4 |
|
✕Cesar Quintas 2023 · A |
20 | 42→36 | 37→45 | 42→50 | 37 | .196/.267/.265 | .069 | .300 | 4 | 5 | 34% | 6% | 48 | -1.9 | .207/.290/.303 | .096 | .304 | 8 | 5 | 32% | 7% | 68 | -0.5 | .200/.289/.313 | .113 | .283 | 11 | 6 | 31% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A |
20 | 36 | 41→40 | 47→50 | 37 | .183/.232/.279 | .096 | .255 | 9 | 7 | 32% | 5% | 36 | -2.7 | .208/.247/.339 | .131 | .296 | 15 | 8 | 34% | 4% | 57 | -1.2 | .206/.233/.374 | .168 | .276 | 24 | 10 | 35% | 2% | 56 | -0.3 |
|
✕Juan Rodriguez 2015 · A |
20 | 45 | 38→45 | 46→55 | 41 | .217/.265/.302 | .085 | .289 | 5 | 8 | 26% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .241/.278/.336 | .095 | .290 | 6 | 14 | 18% | 5% | 69 | -0.4 | .280/.305/.386 | .106 | .318 | 6 | 22 | 14% | 4% | 89 | +0.4 |
|
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2010 · A |
20 | 42 | 38→40 | 49→55 | 44 | .200/.281/.272 | .073 | .296 | 6 | 16 | 32% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .200/.259/.281 | .081 | .332 | 7 | 9 | 39% | 6% | 47 | -1.9 | .171/.216/.243 | .071 | .295 | 8 | 2 | 43% | 4% | 17 | -1.1 |
|
✕Jose Quero 2019 · A |
20 | 40 | 39→40 | 44→30 | 45 | .196/.260/.275 | .079 | .253 | 7 | 3 | 25% | 7% | 47 | -1.9 | .202/.258/.311 | .109 | .257 | 10 | 6 | 25% | 7% | 55 | -1.4 | .196/.247/.344 | .148 | .225 | 15 | 4 | 21% | 6% | 63 | -0.2 |
|
✕Nahum Hernandez 2010 · A |
20 | 41 | 40→45 | 44→50 | 41 | .201/.263/.286 | .086 | .274 | 7 | 5 | 28% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .238/.309/.343 | .105 | .312 | 8 | 9 | 25% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .294/.375/.424 | .129 | .362 | 9 | 15 | 19% | 9% | 127 | +1.2 |
|
✕Wilfredo Moreno 2006 · A |
20 | 41 | 37→45 | 48→45 | 42 | .199/.244/.269 | .070 | .243 | 5 | 7 | 21% | 5% | 37 | -2.6 | .237/.283/.329 | .092 | .279 | 8 | 6 | 18% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .285/.327/.385 | .100 | .321 | 11 | 5 | 14% | 4% | 102 | +0.7 |
|
✕Jose Paez 2014 · A |
20 | 46 | 39→45 | 51→50 | 38 | .218/.263/.312 | .093 | .303 | 5 | 12 | 29% | 5% | 56 | -1.3 | .209/.259/.289 | .080 | .322 | 4 | 10 | 34% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .195/.251/.252 | .057 | .320 | 4 | 11 | 38% | 6% | 32 | -0.6 |
|
●Rainel Rosario 2009 · A |
20 | 36→46 | 40→50 | 45→50 | 39 | .176/.248/.268 | .092 | .289 | 7 | 9 | 39% | 7% | 40 | -2.4 | .205/.272/.319 | .114 | .308 | 9 | 9 | 34% | 7% | 64 | -0.8 | .253/.308/.402 | .150 | .285 | 19 | 6 | 18% | 7% | 96 | +1.1 |