Ismael Javier — OGILVIE

Ismael JavierIF ACL Padres

Age 20 S/R 5'8" / 160 lbs ROK HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .269 / .288

PA120

HR1

K%26

BB%7

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT33

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	216	192	42	7	2	6	19	52	3	8	4	219	299	370	669	151	267	24	9	287	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	216	182	51	8	3	9	29	37	3	8	4	280	388	505	893	225	307	17	13	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	126	114	17	5	1	0	6	50	3	3	4	149	211	211	422	61	266	40	5	179	-5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	126	110	24	8	1	0	10	34	3	3	4	218	301	309	610	91	316	27	8	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	144	124	18	2	0	0	13	40	3	4	2	145	243	161	404	16	207	28	9	192	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	144	117	23	3	0	0	20	29	3	4	2	197	329	222	551	26	253	20	14	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	SD	—	120	109	22	4	1	1	9	31	1	2	1	202	269	284	553	83	268	26	8	256	54	-6	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SD	34%	204	185	38	7	1	3	15	52	2	4	1	205	272	303	575	97	272	25	7	269	64	-8	+0	+0	+0	+6	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	SD	48%	329	297	64	12	2	6	25	82	4	6	2	215	285	330	615	114	274	25	8	277	70	-11	+0	+0	+0	+9	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	SD	54%	414	374	82	15	3	8	32	102	5	8	3	219	290	340	629	120	276	25	8	282	74	-12	+0	+0	+0	+12	-0.0
2030	24	MLB	SD	55%	471	425	93	17	3	9	37	115	6	9	3	219	291	336	627	118	277	24	8	285	76	-13	+1	+0	+0	+13	0.1
2031	25	MLB	SD	56%	504	453	100	19	3	10	40	123	6	10	3	221	293	342	635	121	277	24	8	286	77	-13	+1	+0	+0	+14	0.2
2032	26	MLB	SD	60%	522	470	104	19	3	11	41	127	6	10	3	221	292	345	637	123	277	24	8	286	77	-13	+1	+0	+0	+15	0.2
2027	21	MLB	SD	34%	70	64	12	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	188	257	266	523	78	269	26	7	257	55	-4	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	SD	48%	159	144	31	6	1	3	12	40	2	3	1	215	285	333	618	118	271	25	8	265	61	-7	+0	+0	+0	+5	-0.2
2029	23	MLB	SD	54%	225	202	43	8	1	4	18	55	3	4	1	213	287	322	609	109	273	24	8	270	65	-9	+0	+0	+0	+6	-0.2
2030	24	MLB	SD	55%	261	235	51	9	2	5	21	64	3	5	2	217	290	336	626	119	274	25	8	273	67	-10	+0	+0	+0	+7	-0.2
2031	25	MLB	SD	56%	282	255	55	10	2	5	22	69	3	6	2	216	286	329	615	114	274	24	8	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+0	+8	-0.2
2032	26	MLB	SD	60%	313	281	61	11	2	6	25	76	4	6	2	217	290	335	625	117	274	24	8	274	68	-11	+0	+0	+0	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1310	1181	253	46	8	24	103	322	16	25	8	214	286	328	614	113	272	25	8	271	65	-51	+2	+0	+0	+37	-1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	126	23	4	12	51	160	8	12	4	215	287	329	616	114	273	25	8	271	65	-25	+1	+0	+0	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	3050	2743	580	107	19	54	237	774	39	64	26	211	284	323	607	112	272	25	8	273	67	-113	+2	+0	+0	+86	-2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	124	23	4	12	51	165	8	14	6	212	285	326	611	115	272	25	8	273	67	-24	+0	+0	+0	+18	-0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	216	182	51	8	3	9	29	37	3	8	4	280	388	505	893	225	307	17	13	390	157	+14	+0	—	—	+6	2.0
2024	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	126	110	24	8	1	0	10	34	3	3	4	218	301	309	610	91	316	27	8	275	69	-4	-1	—	—	+4	-0.2
2025	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	144	117	23	3	0	0	20	29	3	4	2	197	329	222	551	26	253	20	14	265	61	-6	+0	—	—	+4	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,431	26	28	219	286	335	+0	+0	-0.1	0.1
	/162	664	12	13	219	286	335	+0.0	+0.0	-0.1	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ismael Javier (OGILVIE)	20	28→33	28→33	47→52	51	201/269/288	87	268	1	2	26%	7%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Junior Valera 2013 · A	20	42	36→40	51→60	45	196/266/265	69	275	2	10	28%	8%	46	-2.0	226/289/310	84	293	3	18	22%	8%	67	-0.5	245/308/338	94	307	3	28	20%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	41→47	41→50	49→50	44	202/257/305	102	265	8	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	223/285/351	128	285	12	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	37	-2.7	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	36	-2.7	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	7	-1.5
✕Emilio King 2010 · A	20	40	37→45	51→40	43	190/274/270	79	258	4	9	26%	6%	53	-1.5	203/253/290	87	301	6	4	33%	4%	47	-1.9	213/250/309	96	311	7	2	33%	3%	47	-1.0
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	191/251/266	76	262	4	12	28%	6%	40	-2.4	205/277/292	87	289	8	19	29%	8%	59	-1.1	203/290/292	89	267	11	29	26%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Edwin Mateo 2019 · A	20	40	37→40	52→55	48	192/265/260	67	249	4	15	23%	8%	45	-2.1	213/290/299	86	290	7	14	27%	8%	66	-0.6	208/281/291	83	293	6	14	29%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2013 · A	20	41	36→40	52→65	48	193/259/264	71	240	3	18	20%	7%	43	-2.2	214/291/283	69	273	2	26	20%	9%	62	-0.9	212/299/273	61	273	1	34	20%	10%	59	-0.4
✕Stanley Martinez 2017 · A	20	40	38→45	48→50	45	192/266/269	77	269	5	10	29%	8%	48	-1.9	216/284/317	101	292	9	7	27%	7%	68	-0.5	213/282/313	100	281	9	5	26%	7%	65	-0.2
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	41→42	39→45	53→50	42	196/255/285	89	270	5	13	28%	7%	46	-2.0	211/283/320	109	300	10	13	30%	9%	69	-0.4	209/285/321	112	292	12	14	30%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	51	193/275/258	65	253	3	8	24%	9%	50	-1.8	200/306/292	92	270	5	6	25%	12%	72	-0.2	182/303/271	88	244	5	5	24%	13%	64	-0.3
✕Kelvin Alarcon 2019 · A	20	43	35→30	48→55	51	200/292/258	58	284	3	8	28%	11%	57	-1.2	209/271/272	63	327	3	8	34%	7%	50	-1.7	201/262/235	34	319	0	8	34%	7%	34	-0.6
✕Albertson Asigen 2022 · A	20	43	39→40	53→55	44	205/260/298	92	275	5	6	27%	7%	52	-1.6	224/299/302	78	328	5	17	30%	8%	70	-0.3	213/301/307	94	348	8	27	37%	9%	69	-0.1
✕Albert Laboy 2007 · A	20	40→38	38→40	48→45	41	193/236/269	76	242	5	10	22%	5%	34	-2.8	216/262/306	90	258	9	7	19%	5%	55	-1.4	213/261/298	85	248	10	6	18%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	40	193/243/266	73	268	5	9	29%	6%	37	-2.7	229/276/310	81	309	7	10	26%	6%	62	-0.9	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
✕Juan Mosquera 2007 · A	19	38	35→30	49→55	44	180/246/238	57	263	3	15	31%	8%	30	-3.1	201/290/246	45	281	1	14	26%	10%	53	-1.5	210/308/237	27	280	0	17	22%	11%	56	-0.4
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→43	40→45	54→55	39	184/247/283	100	276	6	9	34%	6%	43	-2.2	200/271/309	109	281	9	13	30%	8%	60	-1.0	198/272/305	108	273	9	14	29%	9%	57	-1.0
✕Yonki Hernandez 2011 · A	20	40	37→40	49→55	47	184/285/247	64	286	5	13	34%	10%	53	-1.5	192/272/262	70	296	4	18	33%	8%	49	-1.8	184/265/243	59	280	2	24	32%	8%	39	-0.8
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	41	36→30	46→50	46	196/259/262	66	262	4	12	25%	7%	43	-2.2	196/259/262	66	296	3	8	32%	7%	43	-2.2	176/243/231	55	271	2	9	33%	7%	25	-1.1
✕Terry Serrano 2007 · A	20	39	35→30	49→55	46	184/261/240	56	270	2	16	30%	9%	38	-2.6	196/268/257	61	275	3	15	27%	8%	45	-2.1	193/272/251	58	274	2	17	28%	9%	44	-0.9