Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.82 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.83 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 13 | 1 | 23 | 110 | 27 | 11 | 5 | 8% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 12.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.15 | 6.73 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 13 | 1 | 23 | 110 | 27 | 11 | 5 | 8% | 1.7 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 4.5% | 7.15 | 5.04 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 2 | 42 | 194 | 43 | 31 | 7 | 12% | 2.5 | 15.6% | 19.7% | -4.0% | 5.0% | 4.46 | 7.03 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 2 | 42 | 194 | 43 | 31 | 7 | 12% | 2.5 | 22.2% | 16.0% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 5.41 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 2 | 54 | 229 | 67 | 18 | 4 | 9% | 2.3 | 21.0% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 1.4% | 4.33 | 2.97 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 2 | 54 | 229 | 67 | 18 | 4 | 9% | 2.3 | 29.3% | 7.9% | 21.4% | 1.7% | 4.33 | 2.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 35 | 0 | 59 | 284 | 88 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.9% | 17.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 6.83 | 5.47 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | 42 | 0 | 45 | 188 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 104 | 472 | 124 | 61 | 15 | — | — | 26.3% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 5.92 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.72 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 45 | 0 | 48 | 201 | 42 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 46 | 0 | 48 | 203 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | TOR | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 8.6% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 172 | 0 | 180 | 761 | 163 | 65 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 3.95 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 72 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 8.5% | 13.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 5 | 182 | 832 | 167 | 119 | 31 | 5% | 2.0 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.44 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 5 | 200 | 914 | 183 | 130 | 34 | 5% | 2.0 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.44 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juanmi Vasquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.39 | 21.0% | 12.4% | 142 | -0.33 | — | — | — |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.42 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 89 | +0.45 | 3.77 | 132 | 90 |
| Ryne Slack L 2027 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.89 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.81 | 4.08 | 212 | 89 |
| Shane McCain L 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 88 |
| Zach Morris L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.59 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.4% | .286 | 4.59 | 13.9% | 2.4% | 84 | +1.00 | 3.40 | 109 | 86 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 86 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2028 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 85 |
| Daniel Zamora L 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.52 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 1.4% | .294 | 2.76 | 24.7% | 16.8% | 135 | -0.76 | 2.17 | 310 | 85 |
| Jake Higginbotham L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.15 | 17.2% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .256 | 5.13 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 59 | -0.02 | 3.39 | 335 | 85 |
| Haylen Green L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.85 | 16.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .291 | 4.08 | 18.6% | 7.8% | 49 | +0.23 | 3.85 | 104 | 85 |
| Chase Watkins L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.8% | .346 | 4.29 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.48 | 3.27 | 232 | 85 |
| Ryan Riga L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.62 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 1.4% | .311 | 4.02 | 14.7% | 5.4% | 115 | +0.40 | 3.20 | 148 | 85 |
| Johnathan Frebis L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.81 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 1.8% | .245 | 4.25 | 9.7% | -0.6% | 124 | +0.44 | 3.81 | 146 | 85 |
| Jake Dahlberg L 2027 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.06 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.9% | .306 | 3.11 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 47 | -1.95 | 3.11 | 226 | 85 |
| Juliandry Higuera L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .358 | 4.53 | 13.8% | -0.3% | 43 | +0.49 | 4.04 | 197 | 85 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2028 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 84 |
| Hayden Howard L 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .307 | 3.80 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 123 | -0.51 | 3.77 | 200 | 84 |
| Michael Johnson L 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 84 |
| Sean Mellen L 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 84 |
| Cam Alldred L 2027 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.60 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.25 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 132 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 332 | 84 |
| Cameron Ming L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .308 | 5.28 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 49 | +1.25 | 4.03 | 111 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 47 | 21.0% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 4.45 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |