Juan Hernandez (P, DSL LAD Bautista) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Juan Hernandez P DSL LAD Bautista

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 187 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%23.2%

BB%22.0%

K-BB%1.2%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	2	0	2	11	2	4	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	16.20	6.17	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	2	0	2	11	2	4	0	0%	0.8	18.2%	36.4%	-18.2%	0.0%	16.20	7.90	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	14	0	14	79	25	23	2	0%	1.0	21.5%	36.4%	-14.9%	2.7%	9.42	7.36	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Mega	14	0	14	79	25	23	2	0%	1.0	21.5%	36.4%	-14.9%	2.7%	9.42	7.36	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Mega	14	0	14	79	25	23	2	0%	1.0	31.6%	29.1%	2.5%	2.5%	9.42	6.24	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	10	0	14	70	23	19	0	0%	1.4	22.3%	33.9%	-11.6%	0.0%	5.79	5.51	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL LAD Bautista	10	0	14	70	23	19	0	0%	1.4	22.3%	33.9%	-11.6%	0.0%	5.79	5.51	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL LAD Bautista	10	0	14	70	23	19	0	0%	1.4	32.9%	27.1%	5.7%	0.0%	5.79	3.89	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	22.0%	1.2%	3.0%	5.93	5.93	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	LAD	19	0	20	84	20	15	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	18.3%	5.5%	2.9%	5.55	5.40	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	LAD	9	0	9	38	9	7	1	0%	1.0	23.8%	18.3%	5.5%	2.9%	5.55	5.40	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	9	7	1	0%	1.1	23.8%	18.3%	5.5%	2.9%	5.55	5.02	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	211	164	23	0%	1.1	23.8%	18.3%	5.5%	2.9%	5.55	5.02	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		26	0	30	160	35	56	2	0%	1.2	21.6%	35.3%	-13.7%	1.3%	8.10	6.47	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		173	0	200	1067	231	377	14	0%	1.2	21.6%	35.3%	-13.7%	1.3%	8.10	6.47	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	23.2%	22.0%	3.0%	—	5.40	23.8%	5.5%	20	-0.53	—	—	—
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	89
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	88
Andrew Baker R 2023 · 5.99 FIP	23	SU	5.99	24.7%	25.1%	3.3%	.315	3.70	25.5%	12.3%	164	-2.29	3.44	259	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	83
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	82
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	82
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	81
Jacob Wallace R 2022 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	24.6%	21.6%	3.4%	.237	4.25	23.1%	10.4%	153	-1.34	3.50	279	80
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	80
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	80
Luis Mora R 2019 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	23.9%	22.7%	2.4%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	119	80
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	80
Juan Mendez R 2022 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	21.0%	17.9%	2.5%	.279	5.12	22.5%	7.9%	82	+0.13	3.69	156	80
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	80
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	79
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	79