Alex Bustamante prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alex Bustamante P Tampa Tarpons

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 195 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%22.1%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP40

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	0	5	22	7	5	0	0%	1.2	31.8%	22.7%	9.1%	0.0%	3.60	3.29	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	0	5	22	7	5	0	0%	1.2	31.8%	22.7%	9.1%	0.0%	3.60	3.30	—
2023	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	41	0	57	264	65	39	1	0%	1.4	18.2%	17.4%	0.8%	0.5%	4.61	4.02	—
2023	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	41	0	57	264	65	39	1	0%	1.4	18.2%	17.4%	0.8%	0.5%	4.61	4.02	—
2023	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	41	0	57	264	65	39	1	0%	1.4	24.6%	14.8%	9.8%	0.4%	4.61	3.10	—
2025	25	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	6	0	6	27	6	7	0	0%	0.9	22.2%	25.9%	-3.7%	0.0%	4.76	4.51	—
2025	25	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	6	0	6	27	6	7	0	0%	0.9	22.2%	25.9%	-3.7%	0.0%	4.76	4.51	—
2025	25	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	6	0	6	27	6	7	0	0%	0.9	22.2%	25.9%	-3.7%	0.0%	4.76	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	NYY	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	13.2%	8.9%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	37	0	39	165	37	21	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.8%	9.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.88	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	13	0	14	59	13	8	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.8%	9.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	60	13	8	2	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.8%	9.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	113	28	0%	1.1	22.2%	12.8%	9.3%	3.0%	4.86	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		51	0	67	313	61	58	1	0%	1.3	19.5%	18.5%	1.0%	0.4%	4.54	4.01	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	930	181	172	4	0%	1.3	19.5%	18.5%	1.0%	0.4%	4.54	4.01	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Bustamante (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	22.1%	13.2%	2.9%	—	4.88	22.2%	9.3%	39	-0.02	—	—	—
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	90
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	90
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	90
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	89
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	89
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	89
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	88
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	88
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	87
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	86
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	86
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	85
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	85
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	85

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	22.1%	13.0%	1.15	4.88
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44