Guillermo Rosario
C FCL Phillies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKPHI | 240 | .229/.328/.366 | 5 | 2 | 32 | — | .159/.234/.252 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKPHI | 159 | .139/.248/.190 | 2 | 2 | -6 | — | .114/.198/.164 |
| 2026 | 21 | A/ROKPHI | 153 | .210/.355/.363 | 4 | 0 | 34 | — | .144/.244/.250 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBPHI | 263 | .179/.254/.273 | 4 | 4 | 50 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBPHI | 47 | .185/.260/.291 | 1 | 1 | 55 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBPHI | 98 | .190/.265/.302 | 2 | 1 | 59 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 43
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | — | 112 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 264 | 402 | 319 | 720 | 55 | 329 | 16 | 16 | 343 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 39 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 237 | 278 | 515 | 83 | 250 | 31 | 3 | 229 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 201 | 169 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 55 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 237 | 345 | 385 | 730 | 148 | 316 | 27 | 12 | 325 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 96 | 87 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 189 | 149 | 339 | 34 | 184 | 40 | 8 | 165 | -32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 63 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 180 | 339 | 260 | 599 | 80 | 205 | 17 | 16 | 288 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 24 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 136 | 208 | 182 | 390 | 45 | 333 | 54 | 8 | 187 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 129 | 102 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 225 | 383 | 402 | 785 | 176 | 302 | 28 | 17 | 357 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 112 | 96 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 304 | 229 | 533 | 42 | 238 | 21 | 12 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 39 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 211 | 250 | 461 | 83 | 227 | 44 | 3 | 174 | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 201 | 178 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 76 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 239 | 253 | 491 | 96 | 233 | 38 | 7 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 96 | 89 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 147 | 124 | 271 | 34 | 168 | 50 | 6 | 121 | -32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 63 | 53 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 274 | 226 | 501 | 75 | 170 | 25 | 11 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 24 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 83 | 43 | 127 | 301 | 75 | 4 | 102 | -45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 129 | 111 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 273 | 288 | 562 | 126 | 237 | 40 | 10 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 112 | 96 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 188 | 304 | 229 | 533 | 42 | 247 | 21 | 12 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Phillies White | — | 112 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 264 | 402 | 319 | 720 | 55 | 329 | 16 | 16 | 343 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 214 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 159 | 234 | 252 | 486 | 93 | 246 | 39 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 240 | 205 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 67 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 229 | 328 | 366 | 694 | 137 | 304 | 28 | 10 | 310 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 159 | 142 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 106 | 191 | 134 | 325 | 28 | 177 | 40 | 8 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 159 | 137 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 139 | 248 | 190 | 438 | 51 | 193 | 31 | 11 | 214 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 133 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 105 | 262 | 46 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 153 | 124 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 355 | 363 | 718 | 153 | 306 | 32 | 16 | 330 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Phillies White | — | 112 | 95 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 304 | 232 | 535 | 42 | 238 | 21 | 12 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 217 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 234 | 249 | 483 | 92 | 232 | 39 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 159 | 143 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 191 | 133 | 324 | 28 | 169 | 40 | 8 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 133 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 105 | 247 | 46 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 217 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 157 | 234 | 249 | 483 | 92 | 232 | 39 | 7 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 159 | 143 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 105 | 191 | 133 | 324 | 28 | 169 | 40 | 8 | 159 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 133 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 250 | 248 | 498 | 105 | 247 | 46 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 263 | 237 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 75 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 179 | 254 | 273 | 526 | 94 | 240 | 29 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | PHI | 34% | 137 | 123 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 184 | 259 | 286 | 546 | 102 | 244 | 28 | 8 | 250 | 55 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | PHI | 46% | 212 | 191 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 59 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 264 | 297 | 561 | 108 | 247 | 28 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | PHI | 52% | 275 | 248 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 76 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 192 | 267 | 304 | 571 | 112 | 250 | 28 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | PHI | 54% | 324 | 290 | 58 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 88 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 270 | 309 | 578 | 114 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 54% | 346 | 311 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 94 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 196 | 271 | 311 | 582 | 115 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 54% | 353 | 317 | 62 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 96 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 194 | 269 | 306 | 575 | 112 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 63 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | PHI | 34% | 47 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 260 | 291 | 551 | 106 | 244 | 28 | 9 | 252 | 55 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | PHI | 46% | 98 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 190 | 265 | 302 | 567 | 112 | 248 | 28 | 8 | 258 | 59 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | PHI | 52% | 142 | 127 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 39 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 269 | 309 | 578 | 116 | 250 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 62 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | PHI | 54% | 176 | 158 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 271 | 314 | 585 | 118 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 265 | 64 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | PHI | 54% | 188 | 169 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 51 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 197 | 273 | 316 | 589 | 119 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 65 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 54% | 192 | 172 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 52 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 271 | 312 | 582 | 116 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 63 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 843 | 757 | 147 | 26 | 4 | 18 | 69 | 230 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 194 | 270 | 310 | 581 | 116 | 251 | 27 | 8 | 263 | 52 | -37 | +0 | -0 | +15 | +18 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 113 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 53 | 177 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 193 | 270 | 310 | 580 | 116 | 250 | 27 | 8 | 263 | 52 | -29 | +0 | -0 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2401 | 2147 | 387 | 70 | 11 | 41 | 198 | 728 | 34 | 27 | 8 | 180 | 260 | 280 | 541 | 100 | 248 | 30 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -79 | +2 | -1 | +31 | +38 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 105 | 19 | 3 | 11 | 54 | 197 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 181 | 261 | 281 | 541 | 100 | 249 | 30 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -30 | +1 | -0 | +12 | +14 | -0.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 129 PAwOBA .351 → .240 (−111)K% 27.9% → 40.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.91% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 10.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.10% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 2.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 17.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.985 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 4.66% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .351 → .240; ISO .176 → .123; BABIP .302 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AClearwater Threshers · 24 PAwOBA .183 → .102 (−81)K% 54.2% → 73.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 54.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 73.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 5.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 20.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 9.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .183 → .102; ISO .045 → .021; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AClearwater Threshers · 96 PAwOBA .163 → .121 (−41)K% 39.6% → 50.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.58% | ÷1.065 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.975 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.37% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.030 | 16.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.923 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.083 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .163 → .121; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .184 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Phillies · 63 PAwOBA .286 → .217 (−69)K% 17.5% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.46% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.87% | ÷0.928 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 10.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷1.004 | ×0.820 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 15.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 1.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.917 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.17% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 101, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 100, BB 86 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .286 → .217; ISO .080 → .066; BABIP .205 → .170. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Phillies · 201 PAwOBA .324 → .224 (−100)K% 27.4% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.36% | ÷1.042 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.94% | ÷0.982 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.99% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.93% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 16.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷1.015 | ×0.720 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.994 | ×0.720 | ×0.985 | ×1.008 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.924 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.98% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 115, 2B 103, 3B 99, K 108, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .324 → .224; ISO .148 → .108; BABIP .316 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AClearwater Threshers · 39 PAwOBA .229 → .174 (−54)K% 30.8% → 42.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.77% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.56% | ÷0.973 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 1.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.56% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 2.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 23.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.115 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.12% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 108, 2B 88, 3B 126, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .229 → .174; ISO .083 → .054; BABIP .250 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Phillies White · 112 PAwOBA .335 → .244 (−91)K% 16.1% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.07% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.07% | ÷0.964 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 11.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.03% | ÷0.986 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 19.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷0.915 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.794 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 97, 2B 83, 3B 103, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .335 → .244; ISO .055 → .039; BABIP .329 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).