Alex Amalfi

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	AATOR	34	11	88	4.41	3.02	26.6%	12.5%	—	K 21.5% · BB 13.8% · FIP 3.81
2026	25	AATOR	31	6	92	6.82	5.24	28.8%	10.1%	—	K 23.3% · BB 11.1% · FIP 6.33
2027PROJ	26	MLBTOR	67	0	70	5.31	5.31	22.8%	12.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTOR	30	0	31	5.23	5.24	22.7%	12.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTOR	45	0	47	5.05	4.98	24.6%	11.4%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsTaylor Grover (age 26) · Cody Tucker (age 25) · Derek Gordon (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%22.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	8	45	5	8	2	0%	1.3	11.1%	17.8%	-6.7%	4.4%	11.25	6.85	—
2022	21	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	6	0	8	45	5	8	2	0%	1.3	11.1%	17.8%	-6.7%	4.4%	11.25	8.10	—
2023	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	5	50	230	62	36	2	23%	2.3	19.9%	18.5%	1.5%	0.9%	3.75	4.24	—
2023	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	22	5	50	230	62	36	2	23%	2.3	27.0%	15.7%	11.3%	0.9%	3.75	3.30	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	69	285	87	26	1	0%	1.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	0.4%	3.28	2.67	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	69	285	87	26	1	0%	1.9	23.5%	10.5%	13.0%	0.4%	3.28	2.67	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	36	0	69	285	87	26	1	0%	1.9	30.5%	9.1%	21.4%	0.4%	3.28	1.89	—
2025	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	34	11	88	376	100	47	4	32%	2.6	21.5%	13.8%	7.8%	1.4%	4.41	3.81	—
2025	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	34	11	88	376	100	47	4	32%	2.6	21.5%	13.8%	7.8%	1.4%	4.41	3.81	—
2025	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	34	11	88	376	100	47	4	32%	2.6	26.6%	12.5%	14.1%	1.1%	4.41	3.02	—
2026	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	31	6	92	417	120	42	24	19%	3.0	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	6.9%	6.82	6.33	—
2026	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	31	6	92	417	120	42	24	19%	3.0	23.3%	11.1%	12.2%	6.9%	6.82	6.33	—
2026	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	31	6	92	417	120	42	24	19%	3.0	28.8%	10.1%	18.7%	5.8%	6.82	5.24	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TOR	67	0	70	296	67	38	11	0%	1.0	22.8%	12.8%	10.0%	3.9%	5.31	5.31	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TOR	78	0	82	346	79	43	13	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	3.8%	5.23	5.24	-0.6
2029	28	MLB MLE	TOR	76	0	79	335	82	38	13	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	3.9%	5.05	4.98	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	TOR	72	0	76	320	78	37	13	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.5%	12.8%	4.0%	5.05	5.08	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	TOR	68	0	71	301	72	35	13	0%	1.0	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	4.2%	5.15	5.24	-0.6
2028	27	MLB CTX	TOR	30	0	31	131	30	16	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.4%	10.3%	3.8%	5.23	5.24	-0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	TOR	45	0	47	198	49	23	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.4%	13.2%	3.9%	5.05	4.98	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	TOR	51	0	54	228	55	26	9	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.5%	12.8%	4.0%	5.05	5.08	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	TOR	53	0	56	236	56	28	10	0%	1.1	23.9%	11.8%	12.1%	4.2%	5.15	5.24	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	0	188	792	190	93	32	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	4.0%	5.11	4.75	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	99	34	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.7%	12.3%	4.0%	5.11	4.75	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		129	22	307	1353	296	178	39	17%	2.4	21.9%	13.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.52	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	14	200	881	193	116	26	17%	2.4	21.9%	13.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.95	4.52	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Amalfi (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	22.8%	12.8%	3.9%	—	5.10	23.8%	12.1%	237	-0.21	—	—	—
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	86
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	83
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	82
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	79
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	79
Nick Hull R 2024 · 4.62 FIP	24	SW	4.62	19.0%	12.2%	2.9%	.296	5.00	16.8%	6.2%	111	+0.38	4.26	292	78
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	78
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	78
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	77
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	77
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	77
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	77
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	76
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	76
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	76
Orlando Rodriguez R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	26	SW	4.40	23.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.278	4.67	13.7%	3.1%	41	+0.27	4.40	119	76
Madison Younginer IV R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	26	SU	4.22	23.0%	9.8%	3.3%	.370	4.73	14.0%	-5.3%	27	+0.51	3.08	219	76
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	76
Luis Romero R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SU	4.47	22.0%	11.0%	3.3%	.273	5.89	12.7%	1.6%	128	+1.42	4.00	293	76
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	76	23.7%	12.0%	1.53	5.16
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*