Zach Jacobs — OGILVIE

Zach Jacobs P Akron RubberDucks

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%16.9%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%1.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	2	0	2	11	2	1	1	0%	1.2	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	3.86	7.71	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	ACL Guardians	2	0	2	11	2	1	1	0%	1.2	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	9.1%	3.86	8.24	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	29	3	91	397	94	29	4	10%	3.1	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	1.3%	4.43	3.42	—
2023	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	29	3	91	397	94	29	4	10%	3.1	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	1.3%	4.43	3.42	—
2023	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	29	3	91	397	94	29	4	10%	3.1	23.7%	7.3%	16.4%	1.0%	4.43	2.56	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	5	80	304	80	26	5	15%	2.4	20.3%	9.8%	10.4%	1.7%	2.36	3.58	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	34	5	80	304	80	26	5	15%	2.4	20.3%	9.8%	10.4%	1.7%	2.36	3.58	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	34	5	80	304	80	26	5	15%	2.4	26.3%	8.6%	17.8%	1.6%	2.36	2.89	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	3	69	292	61	44	8	8%	1.9	16.9%	16.4%	0.6%	3.7%	4.46	5.76	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	3	69	292	61	44	8	8%	1.9	16.9%	16.4%	0.6%	3.7%	4.46	5.76	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	3	69	292	61	44	8	8%	1.9	20.9%	15.1%	5.8%	2.7%	4.46	4.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	25	0	32	145	24	17	5	0%	1.3	12.6%	10.8%	1.8%	3.9%	5.40	5.56	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	25	0	32	145	24	17	5	0%	1.3	12.6%	10.8%	1.8%	3.9%	5.40	5.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CLE	5	0	5	23	5	5	1	0%	0.9	21.7%	21.7%	0.0%	4.3%	5.79	6.40	—
2026	24	AA RAW	CLE	20	0	27	122	19	12	4	0%	1.4	15.6%	9.8%	5.7%	3.3%	5.33	4.83	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CLE	5	0	6	24	4	4	1	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.3%	1.5%	3.0%	5.65	5.65	-0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	37	169	28	21	6	—	—	16.6%	12.2%	4.4%	3.4%	5.44	5.58	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CLE	69	0	73	308	55	43	9	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	3.0%	5.43	5.36	-0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	CLE	69	0	73	308	57	42	9	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.5%	5.1%	3.0%	5.30	5.26	-0.6
2029	27	MLB MLE	CLE	68	0	72	303	57	40	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.4%	5.5%	3.0%	5.25	5.25	-0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	CLE	66	0	70	294	55	39	9	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.4%	5.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.31	-0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CLE	63	0	66	281	52	38	9	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.6%	4.9%	3.3%	5.38	5.44	-0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CLE	60	0	62	264	48	37	9	0%	1.0	18.2%	13.9%	4.3%	3.5%	5.53	5.62	-0.7
2027	25	MLB CTX	CLE	30	0	32	135	24	19	4	0%	1.1	18.0%	13.9%	4.1%	3.0%	5.43	5.36	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	CLE	47	0	49	207	38	28	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	13.5%	5.1%	3.0%	5.30	5.26	-0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CLE	53	0	56	236	44	32	7	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.4%	5.5%	3.0%	5.25	5.25	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	CLE	56	0	59	249	47	33	8	0%	1.1	18.8%	13.4%	5.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.31	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CLE	55	0	58	245	45	33	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.6%	4.9%	3.3%	5.38	5.44	-0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	CLE	53	0	56	236	43	33	8	0%	1.1	18.2%	13.9%	4.3%	3.5%	5.53	5.62	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		295	0	310	1308	242	178	42	0%	1.0	18.5%	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	5.36	5.00	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	115	27	0%	1.1	18.5%	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	5.36	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		127	11	274	1149	201	129	28	9%	2.2	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	2.4%	3.94	4.37	-4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		93	8	200	839	147	94	20	9%	2.2	17.5%	11.2%	6.3%	2.4%	3.94	4.37	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Jacobs (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	16.9%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.29	18.5%	4.9%	218	-0.36	—	—	—
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	93
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	89
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	88
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	86
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	86
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	85
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	85
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	85
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	85
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	85
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	85
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	85
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	85
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	85
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	84
Everhett Hazelwood R 2023 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	19.0%	15.4%	4.1%	.343	9.36	17.5%	0.6%	14	+3.66	5.23	117	84
John Matthews R 2022 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	16.5%	13.0%	2.1%	.264	5.00	14.5%	-0.5%	70	+0.49	4.51	213	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	69	18.3%	13.8%	1.21	5.40
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41