Justin Sanchez — OGILVIE

Justin Sanchez P Modesto Nuts

Age 23 LHP 6'0" / 183 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 52 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132140vR 148

ERA6.05

FIP6.05

K%16.6%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%-2.2%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	5	0	6	29	7	4	1	0%	1.3	24.1%	13.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.26	4.70	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	5	0	6	29	7	4	1	0%	1.3	24.1%	13.8%	10.3%	3.4%	4.26	4.84	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	46	214	52	27	3	5%	2.1	18.3%	15.8%	2.5%	1.9%	4.86	4.60	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	46	214	52	27	3	5%	2.1	18.3%	15.8%	2.5%	1.9%	4.86	4.60	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	46	214	52	27	3	5%	2.1	24.3%	12.6%	11.7%	1.4%	4.86	3.45	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	25	0	49	225	51	34	2	0%	1.9	16.8%	17.8%	-1.1%	1.5%	4.99	4.78	—
2025	21	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	25	0	49	225	51	34	2	0%	1.9	16.8%	17.8%	-1.1%	1.5%	4.99	4.78	—
2025	21	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	25	0	49	225	51	34	2	0%	1.9	22.7%	15.1%	7.6%	0.9%	4.99	3.63	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	TEX	50	0	52	220	36	41	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	18.8%	-2.2%	2.9%	6.05	6.05	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	51	0	54	227	41	37	7	0%	1.1	18.0%	16.5%	1.5%	2.9%	5.72	5.63	-0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	52	0	54	230	43	34	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	15.0%	3.8%	2.9%	5.47	5.37	-0.5
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	22	0	23	97	17	16	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	16.5%	1.5%	2.9%	5.72	5.63	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	34	0	36	152	28	23	4	0%	1.1	18.7%	15.0%	3.8%	2.9%	5.47	5.37	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	46	39	7	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.6%	2.9%	2.9%	5.57	5.09	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	132	24	0%	1.1	18.4%	15.6%	2.9%	2.9%	5.57	5.09	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		52	1	101	468	84	78	9	2%	1.9	17.9%	16.6%	1.3%	1.8%	4.88	4.69	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	2	200	924	166	154	17	2%	1.9	17.9%	16.6%	1.3%	1.8%	4.88	4.69	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.05	16.6%	18.8%	2.9%	—	5.50	18.4%	2.6%	108	-0.55	—	—	—
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	85
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.82	24.4%	14.9%	77	-2.38	2.41	244	84
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	84
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	84
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	83
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	83
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	83
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	82
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.06	18.5%	7.5%	165	-1.72	3.79	281	82
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	81
Jeff Wallace L 2000 · 5.61 FIP	24	SU	5.61	14.6%	17.8%	2.7%	.308	4.73	16.9%	0.5%	50	-0.88	2.51	137	81
Aaron Brown L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	15.0%	17.6%	1.6%	.348	4.38	19.8%	5.2%	127	-0.58	4.04	269	79
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	79
Adrian Almeida L 2018 · 5.49 FIP	23	SU	5.49	19.1%	24.5%	1.6%	.223	5.10	19.9%	-4.6%	59	-0.39	4.27	188	79
Graeme Stinson L 2021 · 5.66 FIP	23	SU	5.66	12.6%	12.6%	3.7%	.266	4.14	21.4%	8.7%	101	-1.52	3.56	146	78
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	77
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	54	17.8%	16.7%	1.11	5.74
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51